The fixer was raising min_periods to match window size, which causes
all-NaN output for intraday factors with 96 bars/day — window=240 means
zero valid bars per day, window=60 means 61% NaN per day. Critics were
consistently flagging this as incorrect for intraday factors. The LLM
now controls its own min_periods.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
LLM learns from feedback to use groupby(level=1) for instrument, then
chains .groupby('date') to add the date dimension — but DataFrameGroupBy
has no .groupby() method, causing AttributeError at runtime.
Replace the invalid chain with a correct two-level groupby using
index.get_level_values(), consistent with the existing instrument+date fix.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The previous fixer converted groupby(['instrument','date']) → groupby(level=1),
stripping the date level. This caused intraday calculations (VWAP, rolling-std,
cumsum) to accumulate across trading days instead of resetting daily, producing
all-NaN factor output — causing 100% failure rate on intraday factors.
New behaviour: capture the DataFrame variable name and emit:
var.groupby([var.index.get_level_values(1),
var.index.get_level_values(0).normalize()])
which groups by (instrument, day) as originally intended.
Adds test/qlib/test_auto_fixer.py covering all fixer cases.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The LLM generates x.rolling(window=N, ddof=1).std() where ddof is passed
to rolling() instead of std() — pandas raises TypeError on any ddof in rolling().
Fix both forms: rolling(..., ddof=N) and rolling(...).std(ddof=N).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- _fix_reset_index_groupby: replace groupby(level=N) on reset_index'd variables
with groupby('instrument') — fixes ValueError: level > 0 only valid with MultiIndex
- _fix_groupby_mixed_levels: strip string level names from groupby(level=[int, 'str'])
to fix AssertionError: Level 'date' not in index
- _fix_groupby_column_on_multiindex: convert groupby(['instrument','date']) on
MultiIndex DataFrames to groupby(level=1) — fixes KeyError on column access
- _fix_rolling_ddof: remove unsupported ddof kwarg from rolling().std()/var()
- fix(proposal): apply history compression to factor_proposal.py (was causing
131k-token prompts from QlibFactorHypothesis2Experiment; pycache had stale .pyc)
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Summarize all but the 2 most recent experiments to compact bullet lines
(factor name, PASS/FAIL, IC value, 120-char observation snippet) instead
of including full verbatim traces; reduces prompt from ~121k to ~40-60k tokens
- Fix _evaluate_factor_directly and _save_factor_values to look for result.h5
and factor.py in sub_workspace_list instead of experiment_workspace
- Fix Series.to_parquet() → Series.to_frame().to_parquet() in _save_factor_values
- Update factor_data_template README: correct bars-per-day (1440, not 96)
- Update prompts to accept 2024-only debug dataset output as valid factor result
- Fix factor_coder prompts: allow 2024 debug data in date-range instruction
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- Rule 7 extended: session-based aggregations (London/NY/Asian) must also
be shifted by 1 trading day before use — same as daily aggregations
- Rule 8 added: prefer pure intraday rolling factors (RSI, Bollinger, VWAP
deviation, rolling std) that have no look-ahead risk and vary every minute
- predix_full_eval.py: apply _shift_daily_constant_factor_if_needed before IC
- predix_gen_strategies_real_bt.py: improved swing prompt with daily-level
signal logic guidance for daily-constant factors
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The previous monte_carlo_trade_pvalue() used sum(permuted_trades) as test
statistic, which is permutation-invariant (sum is commutative), so beat/n
was always 1.0 and MC_p was always 1.00 for every strategy.
Replace with a one-sided binomial test on trade win rate vs 50% baseline.
Tests whether the observed win rate could occur by chance under H0: p=0.5.
Also add _shift_daily_constant_factor_if_needed() to predix_full_eval.py
so re-evaluations apply the look-ahead bias correction for daily factors.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Daily factors (e.g. daily_log_return) carried same-day close data at 00:00,
giving the model end-of-day information at bar open — a classic look-ahead bias
that produced spurious IC=0.25 and Sharpe=24 with 98% win rate.
Changes:
- factor_runner.py: add _shift_daily_constant_factor_if_needed() that detects
factors where >90% of days have a single unique intraday value, then shifts
them by 1 trading day before IC computation
- prompts.yaml: add rule #7 instructing LLM to always shift(1) daily aggregates
before forward-filling to minute bars
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- abs(ic or 0) prevents TypeError crash when backtest returns no IC value
- wf_rolling=False and mc_n_permutations=50 for faster generation runs
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Resolves last open Dependabot alert: python-dotenv symlink following
in set_key allows arbitrary file overwrite via cross-device rename.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- B301 (pickle): add nosec B301 to pd.read_pickle calls in Kaggle templates
— files are trusted Kaggle-environment inputs, not user-supplied
- B614 (torch.load): add weights_only=True to all torch.load calls in
model benchmark GT code and gt_code.py
- B104 (binding 0.0.0.0): change run_server and CLI default to 127.0.0.1;
add nosec comment where all-interface binding is required for Docker
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- monte_carlo_trade_pvalue(): shuffles trade P&L N times, returns fraction of
permuted sequences that beat real total return (p<0.05 = genuine edge)
- walk_forward_rolling(): multiple IS/OOS windows (IS=3yr, OOS=1yr, step=1yr),
computes wf_oos_sharpe_mean, wf_oos_consistency (% profitable windows)
- backtest_signal_riskmgmt(): new wf_rolling and mc_n_permutations params
- Strategy generator: enables both (200 MC permutations), adds mc_ok and wf_ok
to acceptance filter (mc_p<0.20, wf_consistency>=50%)
- Rebacktest script: enables both, stores all wf_*/mc_* fields in write-back
- 6 new tests covering MC pvalue, disabled-by-default, zero-trades edge case,
rolling WF key presence and consistency range
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Covers backtest_signal_riskmgmt leverage caps, zero-signal, IS/OOS split keys,
bar counts, OOS independence from IS losses, and Monte Carlo permutation
tests (marked slow, excluded from default pytest run).
Also excludes slow-marked tests from default addopts in pyproject.toml.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Add release-please-config.json with bump-patch-for-minor-pre-major=true
so feat: commits produce patch bumps (2.2.0 → 2.2.1) instead of minor
bumps (2.2.0 → 2.3.0) while the project is pre-1.0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
OOS split is now enforced — no fallback to IS metrics. Strategies are
rejected if OOS data is missing or OOS sharpe/monthly <= 0. Feedback
to LLM now includes OOS metrics so it learns to build generalising strategies.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Split IS (2020-2023) and OOS (2024-2026) periods with independent RiskMgmt
simulations. Strategy acceptance now requires OOS sharpe > 0 and
OOS monthly return > 0 to prevent overfitting. OOS metrics stored in
strategy JSON summary and CSV reports.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Each script now creates a timestamped log file in git_ignore_folder/logs/,
captures all logging calls and Rich console output via _TeeFile, and prints
the log path at startup for easy tail access.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Adds _ensure_kronos_factor_in_pool() which runs automatically at the
start of every fin_quant / predix quant invocation. If the Kronos
factor is not yet in results/factors/values/, it generates it
(stride=500, batch=32 GPU) and computes IC via evaluate_kronos_model.
Writes a StrategyOrchestrator-compatible JSON so the factor is
immediately available to strategy generation without manual steps.
Is a no-op when the factor already exists with a valid IC.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Replace sequential predict() calls with predict_batch() in both
build_kronos_factor and evaluate_kronos_model. Up to batch_size windows
processed simultaneously on GPU, reducing per-window time from ~10s to
~0.13s (10 windows in 1.3s on RTX 5060 Ti, 75x speedup).
Adds --batch-size / -b option (default 32) to both kronos-factor and
kronos-eval CLI commands. Falls back to single inference per window if a
batch fails. Refactors timestamp prep into _build_window_inputs helper.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Replace sequential predict() calls with predict_batch() in both
build_kronos_factor and evaluate_kronos_model. Up to batch_size windows
are processed simultaneously on GPU, reducing per-window time from ~10s
to ~0.13s (measured: 10 windows in 1.3s on RTX 5060 Ti).
Adds --batch-size / -b option (default 32) to both kronos-factor and
kronos-eval CLI commands. Falls back to single inference per window if
a batch fails. Refactors timestamp preparation into _build_window_inputs.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
KronosPredictor.predict() requires x_timestamp and y_timestamp to be
pandas Series of datetime values for its calc_time_stamps() helper.
Previously we passed integer ranges (after reset_index), which raised
AttributeError on .dt.minute. Fixed by extracting datetime index values
before resetting and using future_idx for y_timestamp.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Move top-level `import torch` into _cuda_available() helper so
kronos_adapter.py can be imported in CI environments without torch.
All device defaults resolved at runtime via lazy detection.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
TPTBusiness