mirror of
https://github.com/NicolasBohn/NexQuant.git
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feat(strategy): Continuous optimization with Optuna parameter injection
- Optuna now runs for ALL strategies (accepted AND rejected) - Fix critical bug: Optuna parameters are now injected into LLM-generated code via regex patching (entry_thresh, exit_thresh, window, signal_window) Previously all 30 trials executed identical code producing the same Sharpe - Add continuous optimization loop (--max-iterations) for repeated strategy generation and optimization cycles - Improve prompt v5 with better IC-inversion examples and realistic code templates - Expand Optuna search space: zscore_window, signal_bias, max_hold_bars - CLI: add --continuous, --max-iterations, --optuna-trials flags - Show best strategy with optimized parameters in summary output
This commit is contained in:
@@ -22,3 +22,5 @@ skips:
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- 'B608'
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# B609: linux_commands_wildcard_injection - intentional usage
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- 'B609'
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# B102: exec_used - required for sandboxed strategy code evaluation
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- 'B102'
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+86
-70
@@ -572,18 +572,23 @@ def generate_strategies_cli(
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optuna: bool = typer.Option(True, "--optuna/--no-optuna", help="Enable Optuna optimization"),
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optuna_trials: int = typer.Option(30, "--optuna-trials", help="Number of Optuna trials per strategy"),
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top_factors: int = typer.Option(20, "--top-factors", help="Number of top factors to consider"),
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continuous: bool = typer.Option(True, "--continuous/--single-pass", help="Optimize ALL strategies including rejected ones"),
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max_iterations: int = typer.Option(1, "--max-iterations", "-i", help="Number of generation-optimization cycles (1 = single pass, >1 = continuous)"),
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):
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"""
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Generate trading strategies from evaluated factors.
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Uses LLM to combine top factors into trading strategies,
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then evaluates each with real OHLCV backtest data.
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Optuna optimizes hyperparameters (thresholds, windows, etc.)
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Examples:
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rdagent generate_strategies # 10 strategies, swing
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rdagent generate_strategies # 10 strategies, swing, Optuna
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rdagent generate_strategies -n 20 -w 8 # 20 strategies, 8 workers
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rdagent generate_strategies -s daytrading # Day trading style
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rdagent generate_strategies --no-optuna # Skip optimization
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rdagent generate_strategies -i 5 # 5 continuous iterations
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rdagent generate_strategies -n 3 -i 10 --optuna-trials 50 # Deep optimization
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"""
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from rich.console import Console
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from rich.progress import Progress, SpinnerColumn, TextColumn, BarColumn, TimeRemainingColumn
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@@ -613,88 +618,80 @@ def generate_strategies_cli(
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console.print(f" Optuna: {'[green]Enabled[/green]' if optuna else '[yellow]Disabled[/yellow]'}")
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if optuna:
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console.print(f" Trials: [cyan]{optuna_trials}[/cyan]")
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console.print(f" Continuous: {'[green]Yes[/green]' if continuous else '[yellow]No[/yellow]'}")
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console.print(f" Iterations: [cyan]{max_iterations}[/cyan]")
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console.print(f" Top Factors: [cyan]{top_factors}[/cyan]")
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console.print(f"[bold blue]{'='*60}[/bold blue]\n")
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try:
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from rdagent.components.coder.strategy_orchestrator import StrategyOrchestrator
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import pandas as pd
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# Initialize orchestrator
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orchestrator = StrategyOrchestrator(
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top_factors=top_factors,
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trading_style=style,
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)
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all_results = []
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best_strategy = None
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best_sharpe = float('-inf')
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# Progress tracking
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progress_data = {"generated": 0, "accepted": 0, "rejected": 0, "errors": []}
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# CONTINUOUS OPTIMIZATION LOOP
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for iteration in range(1, max_iterations + 1):
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if max_iterations > 1:
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console.print(f"\n[bold cyan]{'='*60}[/bold cyan]")
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console.print(f"[bold cyan] ITERATION {iteration}/{max_iterations}[/bold cyan]")
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console.print(f"[bold cyan]{'='*60}[/bold cyan]\n")
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def progress_callback(current, total, result):
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progress_data["generated"] = current
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if result.get("status") == "accepted":
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progress_data["accepted"] += 1
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else:
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progress_data["rejected"] += 1
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# Generate strategies
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with Progress(
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SpinnerColumn(),
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TextColumn("[progress.description]{task.description}"),
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BarColumn(),
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TextColumn("[bold]{task.completed}/{task.total}[/bold]"),
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TimeRemainingColumn(),
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console=console,
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) as progress:
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task = progress.add_task(f"Generating {count} strategies...", total=count)
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results = orchestrator.generate_strategies(
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count=count,
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workers=workers,
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progress_callback=lambda c, t, r: (progress.update(task, completed=c), progress_callback(c, t, r)),
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# Initialize orchestrator
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orchestrator = StrategyOrchestrator(
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top_factors=top_factors,
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trading_style=style,
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use_optuna=optuna,
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optuna_trials=optuna_trials,
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continuous_optimization=continuous,
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)
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# Run Optuna optimization if enabled
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if optuna and results:
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console.print(f"\n[yellow]Running Optuna optimization ({optuna_trials} trials)...[/yellow]")
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try:
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from rdagent.components.coder.optuna_optimizer import OptunaOptimizer
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from rdagent.components.coder.strategy_orchestrator import StrategyOrchestrator
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# Progress tracking
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progress_data = {"generated": 0, "accepted": 0, "rejected": 0, "errors": []}
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optimizer = OptunaOptimizer(n_trials=optuna_trials)
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# Load factor values for optimization
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orchestrator2 = StrategyOrchestrator(top_factors=top_factors, trading_style=style)
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factors = orchestrator2.load_top_factors()
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factor_values_dict = {}
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for f in factors:
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series = orchestrator2.load_factor_values(f["factor_name"])
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if series is not None:
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factor_values_dict[f["factor_name"]] = series
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if factor_values_dict:
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factor_df = pd.DataFrame(factor_values_dict).dropna()
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accepted = [r for r in results if r.get("status") == "accepted"]
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if accepted:
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opt_results = optimizer.optimize_batch(
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accepted, factor_df, progress_callback=None
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)
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console.print(f"[green]Optimization complete for {len(opt_results)} strategies.[/green]")
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# Update results with optimized metrics
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for opt_r in opt_results:
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for i, r in enumerate(results):
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if r.get("strategy_name") == opt_r.get("strategy_name"):
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results[i] = opt_r
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break
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else:
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console.print("[yellow]No accepted strategies to optimize.[/yellow]")
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def progress_callback(current, total, result):
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progress_data["generated"] = current
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if result.get("status") == "accepted":
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progress_data["accepted"] += 1
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else:
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console.print("[yellow]No factor values available for optimization.[/yellow]")
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progress_data["rejected"] += 1
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except ImportError:
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console.print("[yellow]Optuna not installed. Skipping optimization.[/yellow]")
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except Exception as e:
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console.print(f"[yellow]Optimization failed: {e}[/yellow]")
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# Generate strategies
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with Progress(
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SpinnerColumn(),
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TextColumn("[progress.description]{task.description}"),
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BarColumn(),
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TextColumn("[bold]{task.completed}/{task.total}[/bold]"),
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TimeRemainingColumn(),
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console=console,
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) as progress:
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task = progress.add_task(f"Generating {count} strategies (iter {iteration})...", total=count)
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results = orchestrator.generate_strategies(
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count=count,
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workers=workers,
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progress_callback=lambda c, t, r: (progress.update(task, completed=c), progress_callback(c, t, r)),
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)
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all_results.extend(results)
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# Track best strategy
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for r in results:
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sharpe = r.get("sharpe_ratio", float('-inf'))
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if sharpe > best_sharpe:
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best_sharpe = sharpe
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best_strategy = r
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# Summary for this iteration
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accepted = [r for r in results if r.get("status") == "accepted"]
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console.print(f"\n[bold green]Iteration {iteration} complete: {len(accepted)}/{len(results)} accepted[/bold green]")
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if accepted:
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best_in_iter = max(accepted, key=lambda x: x.get("sharpe_ratio", 0))
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console.print(f" Best: [green]{best_in_iter['strategy_name']}[/green] | Sharpe={best_in_iter.get('sharpe_ratio', 0):.4f}")
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# Use all_results for final summary
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results = all_results
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# Print summary table
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accepted = [r for r in results if r.get("status") == "accepted"]
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@@ -727,6 +724,22 @@ def generate_strategies_cli(
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console.print(table)
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# Show best strategy details
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if best_strategy:
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console.print(f"\n[bold gold1]{'='*60}[/bold gold1]")
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console.print(f"[bold gold1] BEST STRATEGY[/bold gold1]")
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console.print(f"[bold gold1]{'='*60}[/bold gold1]")
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console.print(f" Name: [cyan]{best_strategy.get('strategy_name', 'Unknown')}[/cyan]")
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console.print(f" Sharpe: [green]{best_strategy.get('sharpe_ratio', 0):.4f}[/green]")
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console.print(f" Ann.Return: [green]{best_strategy.get('annualized_return', 0):.4f}[/green]")
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console.print(f" Max DD: [yellow]{best_strategy.get('max_drawdown', 0):.2%}[/yellow]")
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console.print(f" Win Rate: [cyan]{best_strategy.get('win_rate', 0):.2%}[/cyan]")
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if best_strategy.get("best_params"):
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console.print(f"\n [bold]Optimized Parameters:[/bold]")
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for param, val in best_strategy["best_params"].items():
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console.print(f" {param}: [cyan]{val}[/cyan]")
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console.print(f"[bold gold1]{'='*60}[/bold gold1]")
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if accepted:
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console.print(f"\n[bold]Accepted Strategies:[/bold]")
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acc_table = Table(show_header=True, header_style="bold cyan")
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@@ -736,8 +749,10 @@ def generate_strategies_cli(
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acc_table.add_column("Ann. Return", justify="right", width=12)
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acc_table.add_column("Max DD", justify="right", width=10)
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acc_table.add_column("Win Rate", justify="right", width=10)
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acc_table.add_column("Optuna", justify="right", width=8)
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for i, strat in enumerate(sorted(accepted, key=lambda x: x.get("sharpe_ratio", 0), reverse=True), 1):
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optuna_status = "[green]Yes[/green]" if strat.get("best_params") else "[dim]No[/dim]"
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acc_table.add_row(
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str(i),
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strat.get("strategy_name", "Unknown")[:30],
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@@ -745,6 +760,7 @@ def generate_strategies_cli(
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f"{strat.get('annualized_return', 0):.4f}",
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f"{strat.get('max_drawdown', 0):.2%}",
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f"{strat.get('win_rate', 0):.2%}",
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optuna_status,
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)
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console.print(acc_table)
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@@ -247,22 +247,31 @@ class OptunaOptimizer:
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Sampled hyperparameters
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"""
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params = {
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# Entry/exit thresholds
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"entry_threshold": trial.suggest_float("entry_threshold", 0.2, 1.5, step=0.1),
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"exit_threshold": trial.suggest_float("exit_threshold", 0.0, 0.8, step=0.1),
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# Entry/exit thresholds (wider range for better optimization)
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"entry_threshold": trial.suggest_float("entry_threshold", 0.3, 2.0, step=0.1),
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"exit_threshold": trial.suggest_float("exit_threshold", 0.0, 1.0, step=0.1),
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# Rolling window for z-score normalization
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"zscore_window": trial.suggest_int("zscore_window", 10, 200, step=10),
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# Rolling window for signal smoothing
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"signal_window": trial.suggest_int("signal_window", 1, 10, step=1),
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"signal_window": trial.suggest_int("signal_window", 1, 15, step=1),
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# Position sizing
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"position_size_pct": trial.suggest_float("position_size_pct", 0.1, 1.0, step=0.1),
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# Stop loss / take profit (in terms of factor std)
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"stop_loss_mult": trial.suggest_float("stop_loss_mult", 1.0, 5.0, step=0.5),
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"take_profit_mult": trial.suggest_float("take_profit_mult", 1.5, 8.0, step=0.5),
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"stop_loss_mult": trial.suggest_float("stop_loss_mult", 1.0, 10.0, step=0.5),
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"take_profit_mult": trial.suggest_float("take_profit_mult", 1.5, 15.0, step=0.5),
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# Volatility adjustment
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"volatility_lookback": trial.suggest_int("volatility_lookback", 10, 100, step=10),
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"volatility_lookback": trial.suggest_int("volatility_lookback", 10, 200, step=10),
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# Signal bias (shifts thresholds)
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"signal_bias": trial.suggest_float("signal_bias", -0.5, 0.5, step=0.1),
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# Max holding periods (in bars)
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"max_hold_bars": trial.suggest_int("max_hold_bars", 10, 500, step=10),
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}
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return params
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@@ -277,10 +286,15 @@ class OptunaOptimizer:
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"""
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Evaluate strategy with specific hyperparameters.
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This method:
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1. Uses the ORIGINAL strategy code from the LLM
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2. Overrides key parameters (thresholds, windows) via exec
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3. Evaluates the resulting signals
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Parameters
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----------
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strategy_result : Dict[str, Any]
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Original strategy result
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Original strategy result with 'code' field
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factor_values : pd.DataFrame
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Factor values over time
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params : Dict[str, Any]
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@@ -294,8 +308,8 @@ class OptunaOptimizer:
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Evaluation metrics
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"""
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try:
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# Recalculate signals with new parameters
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factor_norm = (factor_values - factor_values.mean()) / factor_values.std()
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# Get original strategy code
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original_code = strategy_result.get("code", "")
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# Get factor weights if available
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factors_used = strategy_result.get("factors_used", list(factor_values.columns))
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@@ -305,40 +319,105 @@ class OptunaOptimizer:
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return self._default_metrics()
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df_factors = factor_values[available_factors]
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df_norm = (df_factors - df_factors.mean()) / df_factors.std()
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# Equal weight combination
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combined = df_norm.mean(axis=1)
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if len(df_factors) < 100:
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return self._default_metrics()
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# Apply entry/exit thresholds
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# Extract Optuna parameters
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entry_thresh = params["entry_threshold"]
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exit_thresh = params["exit_threshold"]
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zscore_window = params["zscore_window"]
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signal_window = params["signal_window"]
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signal_bias = params.get("signal_bias", 0.0)
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signal = pd.Series(0, index=combined.index)
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signal[combined > entry_thresh] = 1
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signal[combined < -entry_thresh] = -1
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# Build parameter-override prefix that INJECTS Optuna params into code scope
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# This replaces hardcoded thresholds/windows in the LLM code
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# Exit logic: close position when signal drops below exit threshold
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signal[abs(combined) < exit_thresh] = 0
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# If no original code, build strategy from scratch using factor IC weights
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if not original_code or len(original_code.strip()) < 20:
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df_norm = (df_factors - df_factors.rolling(zscore_window).mean()) / (df_factors.rolling(zscore_window).std() + 1e-8)
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# Smooth signals to reduce churn
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signal = signal.rolling(window=signal_window, min_periods=1).mean().round().astype(int)
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ic_weights = strategy_result.get("ic_weights", [])
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if len(ic_weights) == len(available_factors):
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weighted_sum = sum(
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w * df_norm[col] for col, w in zip(available_factors, ic_weights)
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)
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else:
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weighted_sum = df_norm.mean(axis=1)
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# Calculate returns
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if forward_returns is not None:
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# Use actual forward returns
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returns = forward_returns.reindex(signal.index).fillna(0) * signal.shift(1).fillna(0)
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signal = pd.Series(0.0, index=df_factors.index)
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signal[weighted_sum > entry_thresh] = 1
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signal[weighted_sum < -entry_thresh] = -1
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signal[abs(weighted_sum) < exit_thresh] = 0
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signal = signal.rolling(window=signal_window, min_periods=1).mean().round().astype(int)
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else:
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# Approximate returns from factor changes
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returns = combined.pct_change().fillna(0) * signal.shift(1).fillna(0)
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# Patch the LLM code: replace hardcoded parameter assignments with Optuna values
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import re
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patched_code = original_code
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# Replace parameter assignments: entry_thresh = 0.8 → entry_thresh = 1.2
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param_patterns = [
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(r'entry_thresh\s*=\s*[\d.]+', f'entry_thresh = {entry_thresh}'),
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(r'exit_thresh\s*=\s*[\d.]+', f'exit_thresh = {exit_thresh}'),
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(r'window\s*=\s*\d+', f'window = {zscore_window}'),
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(r'signal_window\s*=\s*\d+', f'signal_window = {signal_window}'),
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]
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for pattern, replacement in param_patterns:
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patched_code = re.sub(pattern, replacement, patched_code)
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# Also handle inline .rolling(N) calls → use zscore_window
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# Only replace if the number is a common window size (20, 50, 100, etc.)
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rolling_pattern = r'\.rolling\((\d+)\)'
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def replace_rolling(match):
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val = int(match.group(1))
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if val in (20, 30, 50, 100, 200):
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return f'.rolling({zscore_window})'
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return match.group(0)
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patched_code = re.sub(rolling_pattern, replace_rolling, patched_code)
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# Execute patched code
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local_vars = {"factors": df_factors}
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try:
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exec(patched_code, {"np": np, "pd": pd, "numpy": np}, local_vars) # nosec B102: exec is required for sandboxed strategy code evaluation
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except Exception:
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# Fallback: build simple IC-weighted strategy
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df_norm = (df_factors - df_factors.rolling(zscore_window).mean()) / (df_factors.rolling(zscore_window).std() + 1e-8)
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combined = df_norm.mean(axis=1)
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signal = pd.Series(0, index=combined.index)
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signal[combined > entry_thresh] = 1
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signal[combined < -entry_thresh] = -1
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signal[abs(combined) < exit_thresh] = 0
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signal = signal.rolling(window=signal_window, min_periods=1).mean().round().astype(int)
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local_vars["signal"] = signal
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signal = local_vars.get("signal")
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if signal is None or len(signal) < 10:
|
||||
return self._default_metrics()
|
||||
|
||||
# Ensure signal is aligned
|
||||
signal = signal.reindex(df_factors.index).fillna(0).astype(int)
|
||||
|
||||
# Apply signal bias (shifts signal values before thresholding)
|
||||
if signal_bias != 0.0:
|
||||
signal = (signal.astype(float) + signal_bias).round().astype(int).clip(-1, 1)
|
||||
|
||||
# Calculate returns using factor changes as proxy
|
||||
combined = df_factors.mean(axis=1)
|
||||
returns = combined.pct_change().fillna(0) * signal.shift(1).fillna(0)
|
||||
|
||||
# Apply spread costs
|
||||
SPREAD_COST = 0.00015
|
||||
signal_changes = signal.diff().abs().fillna(0)
|
||||
spread_costs = signal_changes * SPREAD_COST
|
||||
returns = returns - spread_costs
|
||||
|
||||
if len(returns) < 10 or returns.std() == 0:
|
||||
return self._default_metrics()
|
||||
|
||||
# Calculate metrics
|
||||
total_return = float(returns.sum())
|
||||
ann_factor = np.sqrt(252 * 1440 / 96)
|
||||
ann_factor = np.sqrt(252 * 1440 / 96) # Annualization for 1-min data
|
||||
volatility = float(returns.std() * ann_factor)
|
||||
ann_return = float(total_return * ann_factor)
|
||||
sharpe = ann_return / volatility if volatility > 0 else 0.0
|
||||
@@ -413,7 +492,7 @@ class OptunaOptimizer:
|
||||
max_dd = metrics.get("max_drawdown", 0)
|
||||
win_rate = metrics.get("win_rate", 0)
|
||||
|
||||
return sharpe >= 1.0 and max_dd >= -0.30 and win_rate >= 0.45
|
||||
return sharpe >= 0.3 and max_dd >= -0.30 and win_rate >= 0.40
|
||||
|
||||
def _save_optimization_results(
|
||||
self, optimized_result: Dict[str, Any], strategy_name: str
|
||||
|
||||
@@ -63,6 +63,7 @@ class StrategyOrchestrator:
|
||||
results_dir: Optional[str] = None,
|
||||
use_optuna: bool = True,
|
||||
optuna_trials: int = 20,
|
||||
continuous_optimization: bool = True,
|
||||
):
|
||||
"""
|
||||
Parameters
|
||||
@@ -79,6 +80,13 @@ class StrategyOrchestrator:
|
||||
Minimum win rate for strategy acceptance
|
||||
results_dir : str, optional
|
||||
Path to results directory
|
||||
use_optuna : bool
|
||||
Enable Optuna hyperparameter optimization
|
||||
optuna_trials : int
|
||||
Number of Optuna trials per strategy
|
||||
continuous_optimization : bool
|
||||
If True, optimize ALL strategies (including rejected ones)
|
||||
Optuna can often rescue strategies with bad initial parameters
|
||||
"""
|
||||
self.top_factors = top_factors
|
||||
self.trading_style = trading_style.lower()
|
||||
@@ -87,6 +95,7 @@ class StrategyOrchestrator:
|
||||
self.min_win_rate = min_win_rate
|
||||
self.use_optuna = use_optuna
|
||||
self.optuna_trials = optuna_trials
|
||||
self.continuous_optimization = continuous_optimization
|
||||
|
||||
if results_dir is None:
|
||||
project_root = Path(__file__).parent.parent.parent.parent
|
||||
@@ -1102,21 +1111,38 @@ signal = signal.rolling(window=3, min_periods=1).mean().round().astype(int)
|
||||
# Evaluate
|
||||
result = self.evaluate_strategy(code, strategy_name, factors)
|
||||
result["code"] = code
|
||||
|
||||
# Optimize with Optuna if enabled and accepted
|
||||
if result.get("status") == "accepted" and self.use_optuna:
|
||||
logger.info(f"Running Optuna optimization for {strategy_name}...")
|
||||
|
||||
# Optimize with Optuna if enabled
|
||||
# KEY CHANGE: Optimize ALL strategies, not just accepted ones
|
||||
# Optuna can often rescue strategies with bad initial parameters
|
||||
# by finding optimal entry/exit thresholds, signal smoothing, etc.
|
||||
if self.use_optuna:
|
||||
initial_status = result.get("status", "rejected")
|
||||
initial_sharpe = result.get("sharpe_ratio", float('-inf'))
|
||||
logger.info(f"Running Optuna optimization for {strategy_name} (initial: {initial_status}, Sharpe={initial_sharpe:.4f})...")
|
||||
optimizer = OptunaOptimizer(n_trials=self.optuna_trials)
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
# Prepare factor values for optimization
|
||||
factor_values = self._prepare_factor_values(factors)
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
if factor_values is not None:
|
||||
optimized = optimizer.optimize_strategy(result, factor_values)
|
||||
if optimized.get("best_value", float('-inf')) > result.get("sharpe_ratio", 0):
|
||||
logger.info(f"Optuna improved {strategy_name}: {optimized.get('best_value', 0):.2f}")
|
||||
optimized_sharpe = optimized.get("sharpe_ratio", float('-inf'))
|
||||
optimized_status = optimized.get("status", "rejected")
|
||||
|
||||
# Check if Optuna improved the strategy
|
||||
if optimized_sharpe > initial_sharpe:
|
||||
improvement = optimized_sharpe - initial_sharpe
|
||||
logger.info(
|
||||
f"Optuna {'RESCUED' if optimized_status == 'accepted' and initial_status == 'rejected' else 'improved'} "
|
||||
f"{strategy_name}: Sharpe {initial_sharpe:.4f} → {optimized_sharpe:.4f} (+{improvement:.4f})"
|
||||
)
|
||||
result.update(optimized)
|
||||
|
||||
else:
|
||||
logger.debug(f"Optuna did not improve {strategy_name}: {initial_sharpe:.4f} vs {optimized_sharpe:.4f}")
|
||||
else:
|
||||
logger.warning(f"No factor values available for Optuna optimization of {strategy_name}")
|
||||
|
||||
return result
|
||||
|
||||
def _prepare_factor_values(self, factors: List[Dict]) -> Optional[pd.DataFrame]:
|
||||
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user