phase 4-5: peer matrix and earnings delta

This commit is contained in:
shawnkim1997
2026-04-22 09:28:15 +01:00
parent feea679f6e
commit 4ef757c81c
13 changed files with 779 additions and 117 deletions
@@ -45,8 +45,12 @@ class Profile:
class Fundamentals:
symbol: str
period: str
name: str | None = None
market_cap: float | None = None
revenue: float | None = None
revenue_growth: float | None = None
gross_profit: float | None = None
gross_margin: float | None = None
operating_income: float | None = None
net_income: float | None = None
ebitda: float | None = None
@@ -55,6 +59,11 @@ class Fundamentals:
total_debt: float | None = None
cash: float | None = None
shares: float | None = None
pe: float | None = None
pb: float | None = None
ps: float | None = None
ev_ebitda: float | None = None
roic: float | None = None
source: str = ""
raw: dict[str, Any] = field(default_factory=dict)
@@ -7,6 +7,7 @@ from typing import Any
from server.core.data_gateway import Fundamentals, OHLCV, OHLCVBar, Profile, Quote
from server.core.providers.base import BaseProvider, ProviderError
from server.utils.peer_universe import peer_symbols_for_profile
class YFinanceProvider(BaseProvider):
@@ -67,8 +68,12 @@ class YFinanceProvider(BaseProvider):
return Fundamentals(
symbol=symbol.upper(),
period=period,
name=info.get("shortName") or info.get("longName"),
market_cap=info.get("marketCap"),
revenue=info.get("totalRevenue"),
revenue_growth=info.get("revenueGrowth"),
gross_profit=info.get("grossProfits"),
gross_margin=info.get("grossMargins"),
operating_income=info.get("operatingMargins"),
net_income=info.get("netIncomeToCommon"),
ebitda=info.get("ebitda"),
@@ -76,12 +81,31 @@ class YFinanceProvider(BaseProvider):
total_debt=info.get("totalDebt"),
cash=info.get("totalCash"),
shares=info.get("sharesOutstanding"),
pe=info.get("trailingPE") or info.get("forwardPE"),
pb=info.get("priceToBook"),
ps=info.get("priceToSalesTrailing12Months"),
ev_ebitda=info.get("enterpriseToEbitda"),
roic=info.get("returnOnInvestedCapital") or info.get("returnOnCapital"),
source=self.name,
raw=info,
)
return await self._to_thread(fetch)
async def peers(self, symbol: str) -> list[str]:
def fetch() -> list[str]:
normalized = symbol.strip().upper()
info = self._ticker(normalized).info or {}
syms = peer_symbols_for_profile(
normalized,
str(info.get("sector") or ""),
str(info.get("industry") or ""),
cap=6,
)
return [peer for peer in syms if peer != normalized]
return await self._to_thread(fetch)
async def history(self, symbol: str, range: str = "1y") -> OHLCV:
def fetch() -> OHLCV:
hist = self._ticker(symbol).history(period=range)
+49
View File
@@ -180,6 +180,55 @@ async def earnings_delta(ticker: str) -> Dict[str, Any]:
raise HTTPException(status_code=500, detail=f"Earnings delta failed: {exc}") from exc
@router.get("/{ticker}/transcript-delta", summary="Earnings call transcript phrase delta")
async def earnings_transcript_delta(
ticker: str,
year: Optional[int] = Query(None, ge=1990, le=2035),
quarter: Optional[int] = Query(None, ge=1, le=4),
prev_year: Optional[int] = Query(None, ge=1990, le=2035),
prev_quarter: Optional[int] = Query(None, ge=1, le=4),
) -> Dict[str, Any]:
"""Compare management language between two earnings-call transcripts."""
from server.services.earnings_transcripts import (
compute_delta,
default_quarter_pair,
fetch_transcript,
generate_delta_narrative,
)
from server.services.fmp_client import fmp_is_configured
if not fmp_is_configured():
return {
"ticker": ticker.upper(),
"available": False,
"message": "Set FMP_API_KEY for earnings call transcript delta.",
}
if year is None or quarter is None:
(year, quarter), (default_prev_year, default_prev_quarter) = default_quarter_pair()
prev_year = prev_year or default_prev_year
prev_quarter = prev_quarter or default_prev_quarter
if prev_year is None or prev_quarter is None:
prev_year = year if quarter > 1 else year - 1
prev_quarter = quarter - 1 if quarter > 1 else 4
current = await fetch_transcript(ticker, year, quarter)
previous = await fetch_transcript(ticker, prev_year, prev_quarter)
if current is None or previous is None:
return {
"ticker": ticker.upper(),
"available": False,
"message": "Transcript pair not available for the requested quarters.",
"current": {"year": year, "quarter": quarter},
"previous": {"year": prev_year, "quarter": prev_quarter},
}
delta = compute_delta(current, previous)
delta["narrative"] = await generate_delta_narrative(delta, ticker)
return delta
@router.get("/{ticker}/quarterly", summary="Quarterly earnings data")
async def quarterly_earnings(ticker: str) -> Dict[str, Any]:
try:
+14 -6
View File
@@ -232,20 +232,28 @@ async def financial_trend(ticker: str):
return {"years": [], "revenue": [], "net_income": [], "operating_margin": [], "fcf": []}
@router.get("/peers/{ticker}", summary="Peer valuation multiples (sector bucket)")
async def peer_valuation_multiples(ticker: str):
"""P/E, P/B, P/S, EV/EBITDA vs. a small industry peer set (yfinance)."""
@router.get("/peers/{ticker}", summary="Peer valuation multiples and percentile matrix")
async def peer_valuation_multiples(
ticker: str,
metrics: str = Query("pe,ev_ebitda,roic,gross_margin,rev_growth", description="Comma-separated peer metrics"),
):
"""Gateway-backed peer comparison with legacy response fields preserved."""
try:
from server.services.peer_comparison_service import build_peer_comparison
from server.services.peer_comparison_service import build_peer_comparison_matrix
return build_peer_comparison(ticker)
metric_list = [m.strip() for m in metrics.split(",") if m.strip()]
return await build_peer_comparison_matrix(ticker, metric_list, get_data_gateway())
except Exception:
logger.exception("peers/%s failed", ticker)
return {
"ticker": ticker.upper(),
"primary": ticker.upper(),
"sector": "",
"industry": "",
"averages": {"pe": None, "pb": None, "ps": None, "ev_ebitda": None},
"metrics": [m.strip() for m in metrics.split(",") if m.strip()],
"averages": {"pe": None, "pb": None, "ps": None, "ev_ebitda": None, "roic": None, "gross_margin": None, "rev_growth": None},
"peer_symbols": [],
"matrix": [],
"peers": [],
}
@@ -0,0 +1,173 @@
"""Earnings-call transcript delta analysis.
This intentionally starts lightweight: deterministic phrase deltas are computed
locally, and the LLM narrative is best-effort so the feature still works without
an AI key.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import re
from collections import Counter
from dataclasses import dataclass
from datetime import date
from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional
from server.services.fmp_client import fetch_earning_call_transcript, fmp_is_configured
_STOPWORDS = {
"about", "after", "again", "also", "and", "are", "because", "been", "but", "can", "could",
"did", "does", "for", "from", "have", "into", "just", "like", "more", "our", "out", "over",
"said", "should", "that", "the", "their", "then", "there", "these", "they", "this", "those",
"through", "was", "were", "what", "when", "where", "which", "while", "will", "with", "would",
"you", "your", "we", "us", "quarter", "year", "thank", "thanks", "operator", "question",
}
_POSITIVE = {"growth", "accelerate", "strong", "record", "improve", "expansion", "demand", "margin", "profitable"}
_NEGATIVE = {"decline", "pressure", "risk", "weak", "slower", "headwind", "inventory", "cost", "uncertain"}
@dataclass(frozen=True)
class Transcript:
ticker: str
year: int
quarter: int
content: str
source: str = "fmp"
def default_quarter_pair(today: date | None = None) -> tuple[tuple[int, int], tuple[int, int]]:
"""Return a reasonable current/previous quarter pair for transcript lookup."""
d = today or date.today()
current_q = ((d.month - 1) // 3) + 1
latest_q = current_q - 1
latest_year = d.year
if latest_q == 0:
latest_q = 4
latest_year -= 1
prev_q = latest_q - 1
prev_year = latest_year
if prev_q == 0:
prev_q = 4
prev_year -= 1
return (latest_year, latest_q), (prev_year, prev_q)
def _extract_content(row: Dict[str, Any]) -> str:
for key in ("content", "transcript", "text"):
value = row.get(key)
if isinstance(value, str) and value.strip():
return value.strip()
return ""
async def fetch_transcript(ticker: str, year: int, quarter: int) -> Optional[Transcript]:
if not fmp_is_configured():
return None
rows = await fetch_earning_call_transcript(ticker, year, quarter)
if not rows:
return None
content = _extract_content(rows[0])
if not content:
return None
return Transcript(ticker=ticker.upper(), year=year, quarter=quarter, content=content)
def tokenize_and_normalize(text: str) -> list[str]:
words = re.findall(r"[a-zA-Z][a-zA-Z\-']{1,}", text.lower())
normalized = [word.strip("-'") for word in words]
return [word for word in normalized if (len(word) > 2 or word == "ai") and word not in _STOPWORDS]
def _phrase_counts(text: str) -> Counter[str]:
tokens = tokenize_and_normalize(text)
phrases: Counter[str] = Counter(tokens)
for size in (2, 3):
for idx in range(0, max(0, len(tokens) - size + 1)):
phrase = " ".join(tokens[idx : idx + size])
phrases[phrase] += 1
return phrases
def _sentiment_score(counts: Counter[str]) -> float:
total = sum(counts.values()) or 1
pos = sum(counts[word] for word in _POSITIVE)
neg = sum(counts[word] for word in _NEGATIVE)
return round((pos - neg) / total * 100, 2)
def _top_new(curr: Counter[str], prev: Counter[str], limit: int = 10) -> list[dict[str, Any]]:
rows = [
{"phrase": phrase, "count": count}
for phrase, count in curr.items()
if count >= 2 and prev.get(phrase, 0) == 0 and " " in phrase
]
return sorted(rows, key=lambda row: row["count"], reverse=True)[:limit]
def _top_removed(curr: Counter[str], prev: Counter[str], limit: int = 10) -> list[dict[str, Any]]:
rows = [
{"phrase": phrase, "previous_count": count}
for phrase, count in prev.items()
if count >= 2 and curr.get(phrase, 0) == 0 and " " in phrase
]
return sorted(rows, key=lambda row: row["previous_count"], reverse=True)[:limit]
def _emphasis_shift(curr: Counter[str], prev: Counter[str], limit: int = 12) -> list[dict[str, Any]]:
rows: list[dict[str, Any]] = []
for phrase in set(curr) | set(prev):
if " " not in phrase:
continue
curr_count = curr.get(phrase, 0)
prev_count = prev.get(phrase, 0)
delta = curr_count - prev_count
if abs(delta) < 2:
continue
rows.append({"phrase": phrase, "current_count": curr_count, "previous_count": prev_count, "delta": delta})
return sorted(rows, key=lambda row: abs(row["delta"]), reverse=True)[:limit]
def compute_delta(curr: Transcript, prev: Transcript) -> dict[str, Any]:
curr_counts = _phrase_counts(curr.content)
prev_counts = _phrase_counts(prev.content)
return {
"ticker": curr.ticker,
"available": True,
"current": {"year": curr.year, "quarter": curr.quarter},
"previous": {"year": prev.year, "quarter": prev.quarter},
"new_phrases": _top_new(curr_counts, prev_counts),
"removed_phrases": _top_removed(curr_counts, prev_counts),
"emphasis_shift": _emphasis_shift(curr_counts, prev_counts),
"tone_shift": {
"current_score": _sentiment_score(curr_counts),
"previous_score": _sentiment_score(prev_counts),
},
}
async def generate_delta_narrative(delta: dict[str, Any], ticker: str) -> dict[str, Any]:
fallback = {
"key_shifts": [row["phrase"] for row in delta.get("emphasis_shift", [])[:3]],
"what_it_means": "Transcript language changed, but AI narrative is unavailable. Review the phrase deltas for direction.",
"questions_to_ask": ["Which new phrases are one-off comments versus strategy?", "Are margin or capex terms increasing?"],
"variant_view": "Use phrase shifts as a prompt for deeper research, not as standalone evidence.",
}
try:
from server.services.gemini_service import generate_text
prompt = (
f"Analyze {ticker.upper()} earnings call transcript delta. Return concise JSON with keys "
"key_shifts, what_it_means, questions_to_ask, variant_view. Data:\n"
f"{delta}"
)
text = await generate_text(prompt)
import json
parsed = json.loads(text.strip().removeprefix("```json").removesuffix("```").strip())
if isinstance(parsed, dict):
return {**fallback, **parsed}
except Exception:
return fallback
return fallback
@@ -2,68 +2,19 @@
from __future__ import annotations
from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional, Tuple
import asyncio
from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional
import yfinance as yf
from server.utils.ticker_utils import SECTORS
from server.core.data_gateway import DataGateway, Fundamentals
from server.core.providers.base import DataUnavailable
from server.utils.peer_universe import peer_symbols_for_profile
from server.utils.safe_float import _safe_float
# Extra keyword → bucket name (must match keys in SECTORS)
_BUCKET_KEYWORDS: List[Tuple[str, List[str]]] = [
("Semiconductors & Hardware", ["semiconductor", "semiconductors", "semi ", "hardware"]),
("Software & Cloud", ["software", "cloud", "saas", "internet content"]),
("Consumer Retail", ["retail", "consumer", "restaurant", "specialty retail"]),
("Financial Services", ["financial", "bank", "insurance", "capital market"]),
("Healthcare", ["health", "drug", "biotech", "medical"]),
]
def _match_bucket(sector: str, industry: str) -> Optional[str]:
text = f"{sector} {industry}".lower()
for bucket, kws in _BUCKET_KEYWORDS:
if any(kw in text for kw in kws):
return bucket
for bucket_name in SECTORS:
parts = bucket_name.lower().replace("&", " ").split()
if any(p in text for p in parts if len(p) > 3):
return bucket_name
return None
def _fallback_large_caps(sector: str) -> List[str]:
s = (sector or "").lower()
if "technology" in s or "tech" in s:
return ["MSFT", "AAPL", "GOOGL", "META", "NVDA"]
if "financial" in s or "financials" in s:
return ["JPM", "BAC", "GS", "MS", "V"]
if "health" in s:
return ["UNH", "JNJ", "LLY", "ABBV", "MRK"]
if "consumer" in s:
return ["AMZN", "WMT", "HD", "MCD", "SBUX"]
return ["MSFT", "AAPL", "GOOGL", "AMZN", "JPM"]
def _peer_symbols(ticker: str, sector: str, industry: str) -> List[str]:
t = ticker.upper().strip()
bucket = _match_bucket(sector, industry)
if bucket and bucket in SECTORS:
syms = list(SECTORS[bucket])
else:
syms = _fallback_large_caps(sector)
if t not in syms:
syms = [t] + [x for x in syms if x != t]
# unique preserve order, cap 8
seen: set[str] = set()
out: List[str] = []
for s in syms:
u = s.upper()
if u not in seen:
seen.add(u)
out.append(u)
if len(out) >= 8:
break
return out
return peer_symbols_for_profile(ticker, sector, industry, cap=8)
def _peer_row(sym: str) -> Dict[str, Any]:
@@ -76,6 +27,9 @@ def _peer_row(sym: str) -> Dict[str, Any]:
"pb": _safe_float(info.get("priceToBook")),
"ps": _safe_float(info.get("priceToSalesTrailing12Months")),
"ev_ebitda": _safe_float(info.get("enterpriseToEbitda")),
"roic": _safe_float(info.get("returnOnInvestedCapital") or info.get("returnOnCapital")),
"gross_margin": _safe_float(info.get("grossMargins")),
"rev_growth": _safe_float(info.get("revenueGrowth")),
}
@@ -101,15 +55,122 @@ def build_peer_comparison(ticker: str) -> Dict[str, Any]:
pbs = [p["pb"] for p in peers]
pss = [p["ps"] for p in peers]
evs = [p["ev_ebitda"] for p in peers]
roics = [p["roic"] for p in peers]
gross_margins = [p["gross_margin"] for p in peers]
rev_growths = [p["rev_growth"] for p in peers]
return {
"ticker": t,
"primary": t,
"sector": sector or "",
"industry": industry or "",
"metrics": ["pe", "pb", "ps", "ev_ebitda", "roic", "gross_margin", "rev_growth"],
"averages": {
"pe": _avg(pes),
"pb": _avg(pbs),
"ps": _avg(pss),
"ev_ebitda": _avg(evs),
"roic": _avg(roics),
"gross_margin": _avg(gross_margins),
"rev_growth": _avg(rev_growths),
},
"peer_symbols": syms[1:],
"matrix": peers,
"peers": peers,
}
def _metric_from_fundamentals(fundamentals: Fundamentals, metric: str) -> Optional[float]:
raw = fundamentals.raw or {}
if metric == "pe":
return _safe_float(fundamentals.pe or raw.get("trailingPE") or raw.get("forwardPE"))
if metric == "pb":
return _safe_float(fundamentals.pb or raw.get("priceToBook"))
if metric == "ps":
return _safe_float(fundamentals.ps or raw.get("priceToSalesTrailing12Months"))
if metric == "ev_ebitda":
return _safe_float(fundamentals.ev_ebitda or raw.get("enterpriseToEbitda"))
if metric == "roic":
return _safe_float(fundamentals.roic or raw.get("returnOnInvestedCapital") or raw.get("returnOnCapital"))
if metric == "gross_margin":
return _safe_float(fundamentals.gross_margin or raw.get("grossMargins"))
if metric in {"rev_growth", "revenue_growth"}:
return _safe_float(fundamentals.revenue_growth or raw.get("revenueGrowth"))
return None
def _matrix_row(symbol: str, fundamentals: Fundamentals, metrics: list[str]) -> Dict[str, Any]:
raw = fundamentals.raw or {}
row: Dict[str, Any] = {
"ticker": symbol.upper(),
"name": str(fundamentals.name or raw.get("shortName") or raw.get("longName") or symbol.upper())[:80],
"market_cap": _safe_float(fundamentals.market_cap or raw.get("marketCap")),
"source": fundamentals.source,
}
for metric in metrics:
row[metric] = _metric_from_fundamentals(fundamentals, metric)
# Keep report/overview legacy fields available even when callers request a
# smaller metric set.
for metric in ["pe", "pb", "ps", "ev_ebitda", "roic", "gross_margin", "rev_growth"]:
row.setdefault(metric, _metric_from_fundamentals(fundamentals, metric))
return row
async def build_peer_comparison_matrix(
ticker: str,
metrics: list[str],
gateway: DataGateway,
max_peers: int = 5,
) -> Dict[str, Any]:
"""Build a gateway-backed peer matrix with bounded parallel fundamentals fetches."""
primary = ticker.upper().strip()
requested_metrics = [m.strip().lower() for m in metrics if m.strip()]
if not requested_metrics:
requested_metrics = ["pe", "ev_ebitda", "roic", "gross_margin"]
try:
profile, peer_symbols = await asyncio.gather(
gateway.profile(primary),
gateway.peers(primary),
)
except DataUnavailable:
legacy = await asyncio.to_thread(build_peer_comparison, primary)
legacy["metrics"] = requested_metrics
return legacy
targets = [primary] + [symbol.upper() for symbol in peer_symbols if symbol.upper() != primary][:max_peers]
semaphore = asyncio.Semaphore(5)
async def fetch_one(symbol: str) -> Fundamentals | Exception:
async with semaphore:
try:
return await gateway.fundamentals(symbol, period="ttm")
except Exception as exc:
return exc
results = await asyncio.gather(*(fetch_one(symbol) for symbol in targets))
matrix: list[Dict[str, Any]] = []
for symbol, result in zip(targets, results):
if isinstance(result, Fundamentals):
matrix.append(_matrix_row(symbol, result, requested_metrics))
if not matrix:
legacy = await asyncio.to_thread(build_peer_comparison, primary)
legacy["metrics"] = requested_metrics
return legacy
averages = {
metric: _avg([_safe_float(row.get(metric)) for row in matrix])
for metric in ["pe", "pb", "ps", "ev_ebitda", "roic", "gross_margin", "rev_growth"]
}
return {
"ticker": primary,
"primary": primary,
"sector": profile.sector or "",
"industry": profile.industry or "",
"metrics": requested_metrics,
"peer_symbols": targets[1:],
"averages": averages,
"matrix": matrix,
"peers": matrix,
}
@@ -0,0 +1,65 @@
"""Peer universe helpers shared by gateway providers and legacy services."""
from __future__ import annotations
from typing import List, Optional, Tuple
from server.utils.ticker_utils import SECTORS
_BUCKET_KEYWORDS: list[tuple[str, list[str]]] = [
("Semiconductors & Hardware", ["semiconductor", "semiconductors", "semi ", "hardware"]),
("Software & Cloud", ["software", "cloud", "saas", "internet content"]),
("Consumer Retail", ["retail", "consumer", "restaurant", "specialty retail"]),
("Financial Services", ["financial", "bank", "insurance", "capital market"]),
("Healthcare", ["health", "drug", "biotech", "medical"]),
]
def match_peer_bucket(sector: str, industry: str) -> Optional[str]:
text = f"{sector} {industry}".lower()
for bucket, keywords in _BUCKET_KEYWORDS:
if any(keyword in text for keyword in keywords):
return bucket
for bucket_name in SECTORS:
parts = bucket_name.lower().replace("&", " ").split()
if any(part in text for part in parts if len(part) > 3):
return bucket_name
return None
def fallback_large_caps(sector: str) -> list[str]:
s = (sector or "").lower()
if "technology" in s or "tech" in s:
return ["MSFT", "AAPL", "GOOGL", "META", "NVDA"]
if "financial" in s or "financials" in s:
return ["JPM", "BAC", "GS", "MS", "V"]
if "health" in s:
return ["UNH", "JNJ", "LLY", "ABBV", "MRK"]
if "consumer" in s:
return ["AMZN", "WMT", "HD", "MCD", "SBUX"]
return ["MSFT", "AAPL", "GOOGL", "AMZN", "JPM"]
def peer_symbols_for_profile(ticker: str, sector: str, industry: str, cap: int = 8) -> List[str]:
t = ticker.upper().strip()
bucket = match_peer_bucket(sector, industry)
syms = list(SECTORS[bucket]) if bucket and bucket in SECTORS else fallback_large_caps(sector)
if t not in syms:
syms = [t] + [symbol for symbol in syms if symbol != t]
seen: set[str] = set()
out: list[str] = []
for symbol in syms:
normalized = symbol.upper()
if normalized not in seen:
seen.add(normalized)
out.append(normalized)
if len(out) >= cap:
break
return out
def peer_symbols(ticker: str, sector: str, industry: str) -> List[str]:
"""Backward-compatible alias used by older services."""
return peer_symbols_for_profile(ticker, sector, industry)