fix: restore TRUE SMC-only logic (v0.2.4)
CRITICAL FIX: v0.2.3 was still blocking SMC signals! Problem: - v0.2.3 had 3-tier logic that BLOCKS SMC 60-75% if ML disagrees - Signal BUY 63% + ML HOLD 50% was BLOCKED (wrong!) - Original v4 intention: SMC-only, ML for boost only Root Cause: - v0.2.3 logic still required ML agreement for medium tier - This contradicts "SMC patokan utama, ML pendukung" Solution v0.2.4: - Single threshold: SMC >= 55% executes ALWAYS - ML role: OPTIONAL boost (average) or ignored - SELL filter: Only exception (requires ML >= 75%) - No more tiers, no more ML blocking Impact: - SMC BUY 63% + ML HOLD → Now EXECUTES (was blocked) - True SMC-only mode restored - ML is reference/boost only Files: - main_live.py: Logic v6 (SMC-only) - VERSION: 0.2.3 → 0.2.4 - CHANGELOG.md: Full documentation User feedback: "Perasaan tadi sebelum perbaikan, kita mengabaikan ML dan fokus SMC saja" - NOW CORRECT! Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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buckybonez
@@ -9,6 +9,87 @@ and this project adheres to [Semantic Versioning](https://semver.org/spec/v2.0.0
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---
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## [0.2.4] - 2026-02-11
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### Fixed (CRITICAL: Restore TRUE SMC-Only Logic)
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**User Discovery:** v0.2.3 logic was WRONG - still blocking SMC signals based on ML!
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#### Problem Identified
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- **User:** "Perasaan tadi sebelum perbaikan, kita mengabaikan ML dan fokus SMC saja"
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- **Investigation:** v0.2.3 still had 3-tier logic that BLOCKS SMC 60-75% if ML disagrees
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- **Original v4:** ML filters DISABLED - SMC signal = immediate trade (except SELL filter)
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- **v0.2.3 mistake:** Added medium tier that requires ML agreement (WRONG!)
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#### Root Cause Analysis
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```python
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# ORIGINAL v4 (CORRECT - SMC-Only):
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if smc_signal:
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if ml_agrees:
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confidence = avg(smc, ml) # Boost
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else:
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confidence = smc # Use SMC as-is
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execute() # ALWAYS execute
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# v0.2.3 (WRONG - Still blocking):
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if smc >= 75%:
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execute()
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elif smc 60-75%:
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if ml_agrees: # ← WRONG! This blocks trades!
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execute()
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else:
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skip() # ← Blocked signal 63% wrongly!
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```
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#### Example Impact
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- **Signal:** SMC BUY 63%, ML HOLD 50%
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- **v0.2.3 behavior:** ❌ BLOCKED (medium tier needs ML confirm)
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- **Should be:** ✅ EXECUTE (SMC-only mode)
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#### Solution Implemented
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**Logic v6 - TRUE SMC-Only:**
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```python
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if smc_signal and smc_conf >= 0.55:
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# SELL filter (only exception)
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if signal == "SELL":
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if ml_signal != "SELL" or ml_conf < 0.75:
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skip() # SELL safety filter
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# For all other signals: ML is OPTIONAL boost
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if ml_agrees:
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confidence = avg(smc, ml) # Boost
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else:
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confidence = smc # Use SMC as-is (ML IGNORED)
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execute() # ALWAYS execute if SMC >= 55%
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```
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**Key Changes:**
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- ❌ Removed: 3-tier logic (HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW)
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- ✅ Added: Single threshold (>= 55%)
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- ✅ ML role: OPTIONAL boost only (not blocker)
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- ✅ SELL filter: Only exception (requires ML >= 75%)
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**Expected Behavior:**
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| SMC | ML | v0.2.3 (Wrong) | v0.2.4 (Correct) |
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|-----|-----|----------------|------------------|
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| BUY 63% | HOLD 50% | ❌ BLOCKED | ✅ EXECUTE (conf 63%) |
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| BUY 75% | HOLD 50% | ✅ EXECUTE (conf 71%) | ✅ EXECUTE (conf 75%) |
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| BUY 80% | BUY 70% | ✅ EXECUTE (conf 75%) | ✅ EXECUTE (conf 75%) |
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| SELL 75% | HOLD 50% | ✅ EXECUTE | ❌ BLOCKED (safety) |
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**Files Modified:**
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- `main_live.py` - Signal logic v6 (line 1940-2010)
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- `VERSION` - Updated to 0.2.4
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- `CHANGELOG.md` - This entry
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**User Feedback Integration:**
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- ✅ "Mengabaikan ML" - ML truly ignored (except SELL safety)
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- ✅ "Fokus SMC saja" - SMC >= 55% executes always
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- ✅ Original v4 intention restored
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---
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## [0.2.3] - 2026-02-11
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### Fixed (SMC Primary Strategy Restoration)
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+1
-1
@@ -1 +1 @@
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14108
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604
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+4
-4
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
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date:2026-02-11
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daily_loss:6.68
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daily_loss:6.9799999999999995
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daily_profit:37.12000000000001
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consecutive_losses:0
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total_loss:0
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saved_at:2026-02-11T18:23:41.105395+07:00
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consecutive_losses:1
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total_loss:0.3
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saved_at:2026-02-11T19:27:05.033750+07:00
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+48
-65
@@ -1938,17 +1938,24 @@ class TradingBot:
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)
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# ============================================================
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# SIGNAL LOGIC v5 - SMC PRIMARY, ML SECONDARY
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# SIGNAL LOGIC v6 - SMC-ONLY (TRUE SMC MASTER)
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# ============================================================
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# Philosophy: SMC is the CORE strategy, ML is support/filter
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# - SMC confidence >= 75% -> EXECUTE (high conviction)
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# - SMC confidence 60-75% -> Require ML agreement to boost
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# - SMC confidence < 60% -> Skip (SMC not confident)
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# Philosophy: SMC is MASTER, ML is OPTIONAL boost/reference only
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# - SMC signal exists (>= 55% conf) -> EXECUTE
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# - ML agrees -> Boost confidence (average)
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# - ML disagrees -> Use SMC confidence (ML IGNORED)
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# - Exception: SELL requires ML >= 75% (safety filter)
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# ============================================================
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golden_marker = "[GOLDEN] " if is_golden_time else ""
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if smc_signal is not None:
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smc_conf = smc_signal.confidence
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# Skip if SMC confidence too low (< 55%)
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if smc_conf < 0.55:
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if self._loop_count % 120 == 0:
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logger.info(f"[SMC LOW] {smc_signal.signal_type} confidence {smc_conf:.0%} < 55% -> Skip")
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return None
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# Check ML agreement
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ml_agrees = (
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(smc_signal.signal_type == "BUY" and ml_prediction.signal == "BUY") or
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@@ -1956,75 +1963,51 @@ class TradingBot:
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)
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# ============================================================
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# SMC HIGH CONFIDENCE (>= 75%) - EXECUTE DIRECTLY
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# SELL-SPECIFIC SAFETY FILTER
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# ============================================================
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if smc_conf >= 0.75:
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# SMC is very confident -> Execute regardless of ML
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if ml_agrees:
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combined_confidence = (smc_conf + ml_prediction.confidence) / 2
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reason_suffix = f" | ML BOOST: {ml_prediction.signal} ({ml_prediction.confidence:.0%})"
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else:
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combined_confidence = smc_conf * 0.95 # Minor penalty for ML disagree
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reason_suffix = f" | ML disagree: {ml_prediction.signal} ({ml_prediction.confidence:.0%})"
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# Apply London penalty if applicable
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combined_confidence *= london_penalty
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logger.info(
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f"{golden_marker}[SMC PRIMARY] {smc_signal.signal_type} @ {smc_signal.entry_price:.2f} "
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f"(SMC={smc_conf:.0%}, ML={ml_prediction.signal} {ml_prediction.confidence:.0%}, "
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f"Final={combined_confidence:.0%})"
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)
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return SMCSignal(
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signal_type=smc_signal.signal_type,
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entry_price=smc_signal.entry_price,
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stop_loss=smc_signal.stop_loss,
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take_profit=smc_signal.take_profit,
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confidence=combined_confidence,
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reason=f"SMC-PRIMARY: {smc_signal.reason}{reason_suffix}",
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)
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# ============================================================
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# SMC MEDIUM CONFIDENCE (60-75%) - REQUIRE ML AGREEMENT
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# ============================================================
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elif smc_conf >= 0.60:
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# SMC moderately confident -> Need ML confirmation
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if ml_agrees and ml_prediction.confidence >= 0.60:
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# Both agree -> Take the trade
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combined_confidence = (smc_conf + ml_prediction.confidence) / 2
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combined_confidence *= london_penalty
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logger.info(
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f"{golden_marker}[SMC+ML CONFIRM] {smc_signal.signal_type} @ {smc_signal.entry_price:.2f} "
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f"(SMC={smc_conf:.0%}, ML={ml_prediction.signal} {ml_prediction.confidence:.0%}, "
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f"Final={combined_confidence:.0%})"
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)
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return SMCSignal(
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signal_type=smc_signal.signal_type,
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entry_price=smc_signal.entry_price,
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stop_loss=smc_signal.stop_loss,
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take_profit=smc_signal.take_profit,
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confidence=combined_confidence,
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reason=f"SMC+ML: {smc_signal.reason} | ML confirms",
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)
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else:
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# ML doesn't agree -> Skip (SMC not strong enough alone)
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# SELL signals require ML >= 75% (historically poor win rate)
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if smc_signal.signal_type == "SELL":
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if ml_prediction.signal != "SELL" or ml_prediction.confidence < 0.75:
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if self._loop_count % 60 == 0:
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logger.info(
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f"[SMC MEDIUM SKIP] SMC {smc_signal.signal_type} {smc_conf:.0%} needs ML confirm, "
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f"but ML says {ml_prediction.signal} {ml_prediction.confidence:.0%}"
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f"[SELL FILTER] SELL blocked: ML {ml_prediction.signal} "
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f"{ml_prediction.confidence:.0%} (need SELL >=75%)"
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)
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return None
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# ============================================================
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# SMC LOW CONFIDENCE (< 60%) - SKIP
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# CALCULATE FINAL CONFIDENCE (SMC-ONLY MODE)
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# ============================================================
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if ml_agrees:
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# ML boosts confidence (average SMC + ML)
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combined_confidence = (smc_conf + ml_prediction.confidence) / 2
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reason_suffix = f" | ML BOOST: {ml_prediction.signal} ({ml_prediction.confidence:.0%})"
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else:
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if self._loop_count % 120 == 0:
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logger.info(f"[SMC LOW] {smc_signal.signal_type} confidence {smc_conf:.0%} < 60% -> Skip")
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return None
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# ML ignored, use SMC confidence as-is
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combined_confidence = smc_conf
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reason_suffix = f" | ML: {ml_prediction.signal} ({ml_prediction.confidence:.0%})"
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# Apply London penalty if applicable
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combined_confidence *= london_penalty
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# Apply regime adjustment for high volatility
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if regime_state and regime_state.regime == MarketRegime.HIGH_VOLATILITY:
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combined_confidence *= 0.9
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logger.info(
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f"{golden_marker}[SMC-ONLY] {smc_signal.signal_type} @ {smc_signal.entry_price:.2f} "
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f"(SMC={smc_conf:.0%}, ML={ml_prediction.signal} {ml_prediction.confidence:.0%}, "
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f"Final={combined_confidence:.0%})"
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)
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return SMCSignal(
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signal_type=smc_signal.signal_type,
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entry_price=smc_signal.entry_price,
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stop_loss=smc_signal.stop_loss,
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take_profit=smc_signal.take_profit,
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confidence=combined_confidence,
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reason=f"SMC-ONLY: {smc_signal.reason}{reason_suffix}",
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)
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# No valid signal
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return None
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