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jaxperro 34d02956d8 Archive dead-end strategies; add FINDINGS.md write-up

Moved the 8 tested-and-failed strategy tools into archive/ (copytrade, backtest,
edge_research, lookback, table_77, lp_screener, lp_paper, xarb) with an
archive/README explaining each. Root now holds the keepers: insider.py (made
self-sufficient — dropped the copytrade load_json dependency) and smart_money.py
(data foundation). New FINDINGS.md is the honest scorecard: six systematic
public-data edges all efficient/illusory, the win-rate survivorship-bias
finding, and the one real signal (z-score improbability + funding clustering).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

2026-06-13 13:09:56 -04:00

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Archive — strategies that didn't work

These tools were built and tested during the research in ../FINDINGS.md. They all proved to be dead ends (the market is efficient / the metric was biased), so they're archived here for reference rather than deleted. Each one works as written — it's the strategy that didn't clear. They import smart_money/copytrade from the repo root, so to run one you'd adjust the import path.

File	What it did	Why it's here
`copytrade.py`	Paper/live copy-trade engine — mirror a watchlist's entries/exits, % -of-bankroll sizing, price guard, per-position cap, Discord alerts.	Copying entries is −EV; followed wallets win ~50%. Backtested −48%.
`backtest.py`	Replay a watchlist over a window, mark outcomes from resolution.	The tool that proved copy-trading loses.
`edge_research.py`	Scan ~2000 wallets for reliable weekly consistency (% green weeks, profit factor, Sharpe).	"Consistent" wallets were mostly young accounts (survivorship); no durable edge.
`lookback.py`	Deep-dive a wallet list over a long window, split into halves for out-of-sample reads.	Showed the "best" wallets had <90 days of history.
`table_77.py`	Aggregate a wallet set to CSV (ROI, total staked, consistency).	Supported the above; ROI inversely related to size.
`lp_screener.py`	Rank reward-eligible markets by risk-adjusted LP yield.	The high APRs were illusory — see `lp_paper`.
`lp_paper.py`	Paper liquidity-provision loop: simulate quoting, track net = rewards − adverse selection.	Polymarket refunds unearned reward pool; thin-book "jackpots" don't pay.
`xarb.py`	Cross-venue scanner: match the same event on Polymarket vs Kalshi, flag price gaps.	Venues priced efficiently (~1¢); both legs cost >$1 after fees.

The keeper that came out of all this lives at the repo root: insider.py.

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Archive — strategies that didn't work

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