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https://github.com/jaxperro/winning-wallet-finder.git
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jaxperro
eeeed39e22
Real-time PAPER trader of the FROZEN surge signal on its own Fly app (wwf-surgebot, recorder-pattern image, no keys, no bot imports): $100 paper book · 5%-of-equity daily stakes ($1 venue floor) · cash-gated all-or-nothing · event cap 2 · paper FAK against the live CLOB book inside p_ref*1.05 · provisional CLOB settles re-graded nightly with CTF payout vectors (grade_surge.py -> surge_paper_ledger.jsonl). Informed set published daily (informed_set.py -> params/informed_set.json, frozen method). Unit-tested: fill/crater/event-cap/cash paths exact; live smoke: dual sockets + sizing clean. Believing any of it stays gated on the #16 forward verdict. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
80 lines
3.0 KiB
Python
80 lines
3.0 KiB
Python
#!/usr/bin/env python3
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"""Nightly chain-truth grading of the surge paper harness (wwf-surgebot).
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Pulls /data/surge_state.json off the box (read-only — never writes back),
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re-grades every settled entry with CTF payout vectors (payouts.truth; the
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harness's provisional CLOB winner flags lie on operator-resolved markets,
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[[polymarket-resolution-truth]]), and appends one row per settle to
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research/surge_paper_ledger.jsonl (keyed asset+ts, idempotent). Also emits
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the running paper-book summary the #16 sprint decision reads."""
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import json
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import os
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import shutil
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import subprocess
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import sys
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HERE = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__))
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LEDGER = os.path.join(HERE, "surge_paper_ledger.jsonl")
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TMP = os.path.join(HERE, ".surge_state.pull.json")
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FLYCTL = shutil.which("flyctl") or "/opt/homebrew/bin/flyctl"
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def main():
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r = subprocess.run([FLYCTL, "ssh", "sftp", "get", "/data/surge_state.json",
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TMP, "-a", "wwf-surgebot"], capture_output=True,
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timeout=300, stdin=subprocess.DEVNULL)
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if not os.path.exists(TMP) or os.path.getsize(TMP) == 0:
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print("[grade_surge] box unreachable or no state yet — skip")
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return 0
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st = json.load(open(TMP))
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os.remove(TMP)
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sys.path.insert(0, os.path.join(HERE, "..", "live"))
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import payouts
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have = set()
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try:
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for ln in open(LEDGER):
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try:
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d = json.loads(ln)
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have.add((d["asset"], d["ts"]))
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except Exception:
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pass
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except FileNotFoundError:
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pass
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settled = st.get("settled", [])
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new = [s for s in settled if (s["asset"], s["ts"]) not in have]
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if new:
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payouts.ensure(sorted({s["cond"] for s in new if s.get("cond")}))
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graded = flips = 0
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with open(LEDGER, "a") as fh:
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for s in new:
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t = payouts.truth(s.get("cond"), s.get("asset")) if s.get("cond") else None
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pay = s["payout"] if t is None else t
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pnl = round(s["shares"] * pay - s["cost"] - s["fee"], 2)
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if t is not None and abs(t - s["payout"]) > 1e-9:
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flips += 1
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fh.write(json.dumps({**s, "chain_payout": pay, "chain_pnl": pnl,
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"flip": t is not None
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and abs(t - s["payout"]) > 1e-9}) + "\n")
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graded += 1
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total = wins = 0
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pnl_sum = 0.0
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try:
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for ln in open(LEDGER):
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d = json.loads(ln)
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total += 1
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wins += d["chain_payout"] == 1.0
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pnl_sum += d["chain_pnl"]
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except FileNotFoundError:
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pass
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c = st.get("counters", {})
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print(f"[grade_surge] +{graded} settles ({flips} provisional flips) · "
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f"book: {total} settled {wins}W · chain P&L ${pnl_sum:+.2f} · "
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f"cash ${st.get('cash', 0):.2f} · open {len(st.get('open', {}))} · "
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f"lifetime trig {c.get('triggers')} fill {c.get('fills')} "
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f"crater {c.get('craters')}")
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return 0
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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sys.exit(main())
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