mirror of
https://github.com/jaxperro/winning-wallet-finder.git
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jaxperro
121 lines
14 KiB
HTML
121 lines
14 KiB
HTML
<!doctype html><html lang="en"><head><meta charset="utf-8">
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<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width,initial-scale=1">
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<title>Skilled Wallets — Polymarket</title>
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<style>
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:root{--bg:#0b0e14;--card:#141925;--line:#222b3a;--dim:#8a97ad;--fg:#e8edf5;
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--green:#37d67a;--red:#ff5c6c;--amber:#ffcc55;--blue:#5b9dff;--violet:#b18cff}
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*{box-sizing:border-box}body{margin:0;background:var(--bg);color:var(--fg);
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font:14px/1.5 -apple-system,BlinkMacSystemFont,"Segoe UI",Roboto,sans-serif}
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.wrap{max-width:1180px;margin:0 auto;padding:22px 16px 60px}
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h1{font-size:26px;margin:0 0 2px}.sub{color:var(--dim);margin:0 0 18px}
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.cards{display:flex;gap:12px;flex-wrap:wrap;margin-bottom:18px}
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.card{background:var(--card);border:1px solid var(--line);border-radius:12px;
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padding:12px 16px;min-width:120px}.card .k{color:var(--dim);font-size:12px}
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.card .v{font-size:22px;font-weight:700;margin-top:2px}
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.controls{display:flex;gap:10px;flex-wrap:wrap;margin-bottom:12px;align-items:center}
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input,select{background:var(--card);border:1px solid var(--line);color:var(--fg);
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border-radius:9px;padding:8px 11px;font-size:14px}
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input{flex:1;min-width:180px}
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.pill{padding:3px 9px;border-radius:999px;font-size:11px;font-weight:600;white-space:nowrap}
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.value{background:rgba(55,214,122,.15);color:var(--green)}
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.favorite{background:rgba(255,204,85,.15);color:var(--amber)}
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.balanced{background:rgba(91,157,255,.15);color:var(--blue)}
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table{width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;background:var(--card);
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border:1px solid var(--line);border-radius:12px;overflow:hidden}
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th,td{padding:10px 12px;text-align:right;border-bottom:1px solid var(--line);white-space:nowrap}
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th:first-child,td:first-child,th:nth-child(2),td:nth-child(2){text-align:left}
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th{color:var(--dim);font-size:12px;cursor:pointer;user-select:none;position:sticky;top:0;background:var(--card)}
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th:hover{color:var(--fg)}tr.row:hover{background:#1a2030;cursor:pointer}
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td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-decoration:underline}
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.z{font-weight:700}.mono{font-family:ui-monospace,Menlo,monospace;color:var(--dim);font-size:12px}
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.det{background:#10141d;color:var(--dim);font-size:13px}
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.det td{text-align:left;white-space:normal}
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.bar{display:inline-block;height:7px;border-radius:4px;background:var(--violet);vertical-align:middle}
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.note{color:var(--dim);font-size:12px;margin-top:14px;line-height:1.6}
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.trade{display:flex;gap:8px;align-items:center;padding:3px 0;border-bottom:1px solid var(--line)}
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.b{color:var(--green)}.s{color:var(--red)}
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</style></head><body><div class="wrap">
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<h1>Skilled Wallets <span style="color:var(--dim);font-weight:400;font-size:18px">· Polymarket</span></h1>
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<p class="sub">23 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-02 10:03</p>
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<div class="cards">
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<div class="card"><div class="k">Validated wallets</div><div class="v">23</div></div>
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<div class="card"><div class="k">Median z</div><div class="v">5.5</div></div>
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<div class="card"><div class="k">Median OOS z</div><div class="v" style="color:var(--green)">4.1</div></div>
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<div class="card"><div class="k">Value / longshot</div><div class="v" style="color:var(--green)">17</div></div>
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<div class="card"><div class="k">Favorite-rider</div><div class="v" style="color:var(--amber)">2</div></div>
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</div>
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<div class="controls">
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<input id="q" placeholder="search name or address…">
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<select id="arch"><option value="">All archetypes</option>
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<option value="value">Value / longshot</option>
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<option value="balanced">Balanced</option>
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<option value="favorite">Favorite-rider</option></select>
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<select id="sort">
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<option value="z">Sort: z (skill)</option>
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<option value="z_oos">Sort: out-of-sample z</option>
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<option value="band_0204">Sort: alpha-zone %</option>
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<option value="n">Sort: # bets</option>
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<option value="win_rate">Sort: win rate</option>
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</select>
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</div>
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<table id="tbl"><thead><tr>
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<th data-k="rank">#</th><th data-k="name">Wallet</th>
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<th data-k="z">z</th><th data-k="z_oos">OOS z</th>
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<th data-k="n">bets</th><th data-k="win_rate">win%</th>
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<th data-k="avg_entry">avg entry</th><th data-k="band_0204">alpha 0.2–0.4</th>
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<th data-k="arch">type</th>
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</tr></thead><tbody id="body"></tbody></table>
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<p class="note"><b>How to read it.</b> <b>z</b> = how far the wallet beat the prices it paid (skill; >3 is strong). <b>OOS z</b> = whether that skill held on held-out bets — the gate that separates real edge from luck. <b>Alpha 0.2–0.4</b> = share of bets in the underdog value zone where research finds real edge concentrates. <span class="value" style="padding:1px 7px">Value</span> wallets win by beating longshot/mid prices (the copyable alpha); <span class="favorite" style="padding:1px 7px">Favorite-rider</span> wallets post high win rates buying near-certain favorites (real but thin, hard to copy). Click any row for live recent trades. Not financial advice — split-half OOS, forward-track before sizing.</p>
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</div>
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<script>
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const DATA=[{"wallet": "0xca15832b58674fc4e9d7e87bff859c4b94629b50", "name": "Gabe22", "weight": 0.1594, "tier": "validated", "z": 31.1, "z_oos": 26.9, "n": 2262, "win_rate": 44.5, "avg_entry": 0.2, "band_0204": 0.35, "rank": 1, "arch": "value", "wins": 1007}, {"wallet": "0x5f390e4b7d6f06d6756a6c92afdbf7b3176aa78c", "name": "oVyg7f", "weight": 0.0969, "tier": "validated", "z": 18.9, "z_oos": 9.41, "n": 2417, "win_rate": 66.4, "avg_entry": 0.58, "band_0204": 0.02, "rank": 2, "arch": "balanced", "wins": 1605}, {"wallet": "0xf419556a9758214628edff29dce8f39a8aa13ce7", "name": "2j289uUmAio7ap245975", "weight": 0.0918, "tier": "validated", "z": 17.91, "z_oos": 9.49, "n": 2084, "win_rate": 69.9, "avg_entry": 0.51, "band_0204": 0.13, "rank": 3, "arch": "balanced", "wins": 1457}, {"wallet": "0x8e9eedf20dfa70956d49f608a205e402d9df38e4", "name": "Siziriv", "weight": 0.0761, "tier": "validated", "z": 14.84, "z_oos": 7.63, "n": 2219, "win_rate": 51.7, "avg_entry": 0.44, "band_0204": 0.03, "rank": 4, "arch": "value", "wins": 1147}, {"wallet": "0x3024821d3a7a3ffa5f1258bab54bd906d9e6b996", "name": "0x3024821d3a7a3fFa5f1258Bab54BD906D9e6B996-1777812964640", "weight": 0.0721, "tier": "validated", "z": 14.06, "z_oos": 9.55, "n": 2047, "win_rate": 26.9, "avg_entry": 0.17, "band_0204": 0.2, "rank": 5, "arch": "value", "wins": 551}, {"wallet": "0x2257901897e83d39e778fa86d568dc1cd9a2dca2", "name": "iuii899889", "weight": 0.0512, "tier": "validated", "z": 9.99, "z_oos": 6.55, "n": 1538, "win_rate": 50.0, "avg_entry": 0.38, "band_0204": 0.25, "rank": 6, "arch": "value", "wins": 769}, {"wallet": "0x14d2bf01e3e7bac9b1799265db3c7d8a993dfa3e", "name": "8998yueyye", "weight": 0.0468, "tier": "validated", "z": 9.12, "z_oos": 5.97, "n": 1531, "win_rate": 50.0, "avg_entry": 0.39, "band_0204": 0.25, "rank": 7, "arch": "value", "wins": 766}, {"wallet": "0x2a315a8d15cfde768bcd47ba5cacf3ef5894f2f0", "name": "itsjustcheddar", "weight": 0.038, "tier": "validated", "z": 7.42, "z_oos": 6.88, "n": 2247, "win_rate": 64.0, "avg_entry": 0.59, "band_0204": 0.04, "rank": 8, "arch": "balanced", "wins": 1438}, {"wallet": "0x753e554feb327f9d4f7bff8a6ebdced98fbd2046", "name": "hfdffdhr", "weight": 0.0375, "tier": "validated", "z": 7.31, "z_oos": 4.99, "n": 1379, "win_rate": 49.8, "avg_entry": 0.41, "band_0204": 0.2, "rank": 9, "arch": "value", "wins": 687}, {"wallet": "0xf3a6ef82d0904db48c0ad8016ca62c556fee8c6c", "name": "0xf3a6ef82\u2026", "weight": 0.0335, "tier": "validated", "z": 6.53, "z_oos": 5.11, "n": 937, "win_rate": 33.1, "avg_entry": 0.25, "band_0204": 0.19, "rank": 10, "arch": "value", "wins": 310}, {"wallet": "0x4b51d90a0f8024a1d3d169b6a4a6473d3f75de5e", "name": "0x4b51d90a\u2026", "weight": 0.0317, "tier": "validated", "z": 6.19, "z_oos": 5.82, "n": 470, "win_rate": 31.3, "avg_entry": 0.21, "band_0204": 0.26, "rank": 11, "arch": "value", "wins": 147}, {"wallet": "0xc78cdeb598f0bb8bae62a80e8134e842b3c44455", "name": "kjjdhfgsg", "weight": 0.0281, "tier": "validated", "z": 5.48, "z_oos": 0.75, "n": 1182, "win_rate": 49.8, "avg_entry": 0.42, "band_0204": 0.23, "rank": 12, "arch": "value", "wins": 589}, {"wallet": "0xa75f077c6e2510b020967c6230bac2bf342300f0", "name": "0xa75f077c\u2026", "weight": 0.0268, "tier": "validated", "z": 5.22, "z_oos": 2.86, "n": 1908, "win_rate": 49.0, "avg_entry": 0.43, "band_0204": 0.33, "rank": 13, "arch": "value", "wins": 935}, {"wallet": "0x8d650d146740463611db1f3974ae9b922953ce8f", "name": "PWBR", "weight": 0.0264, "tier": "validated", "z": 5.15, "z_oos": 2.77, "n": 2016, "win_rate": 39.4, "avg_entry": 0.35, "band_0204": 0.11, "rank": 14, "arch": "value", "wins": 794}, {"wallet": "0xd189664c5308903476f9f079820431e4fd7d06f4", "name": "rwo", "weight": 0.0257, "tier": "validated", "z": 5.02, "z_oos": 4.14, "n": 2065, "win_rate": 53.5, "avg_entry": 0.5, "band_0204": 0.13, "rank": 15, "arch": "balanced", "wins": 1105}, {"wallet": "0x5f7832a6d8621345922490c74f4e525db20cbfca", "name": "pupe", "weight": 0.0246, "tier": "validated", "z": 4.79, "z_oos": 2.95, "n": 2000, "win_rate": 41.5, "avg_entry": 0.37, "band_0204": 0.18, "rank": 16, "arch": "value", "wins": 830}, {"wallet": "0x6ab434242be94f834de8d38ba2de0b4cbfdaa81b", "name": "STAYCALM", "weight": 0.0227, "tier": "validated", "z": 4.43, "z_oos": 2.33, "n": 2015, "win_rate": 94.0, "avg_entry": 0.92, "band_0204": 0.01, "rank": 17, "arch": "favorite", "wins": 1894}, {"wallet": "0x13289e4d4538c0e7c282c451bd5ede8e27aef16d", "name": "0x13289e4d\u2026", "weight": 0.0209, "tier": "validated", "z": 4.07, "z_oos": 3.58, "n": 2003, "win_rate": 48.3, "avg_entry": 0.44, "band_0204": 0.22, "rank": 18, "arch": "value", "wins": 967}, {"wallet": "0x91e8ec880471a69da3c74356a9ec2571d37b24f8", "name": "Bigbang4", "weight": 0.0197, "tier": "validated", "z": 3.84, "z_oos": 2.0, "n": 699, "win_rate": 36.5, "avg_entry": 0.31, "band_0204": 0.35, "rank": 19, "arch": "value", "wins": 255}, {"wallet": "0x46b2f8a865a3572a435813e747e22cce0e835977", "name": "quantssss", "weight": 0.0193, "tier": "validated", "z": 3.76, "z_oos": 2.86, "n": 2464, "win_rate": 49.2, "avg_entry": 0.46, "band_0204": 0.39, "rank": 20, "arch": "value", "wins": 1212}, {"wallet": "0xc265ab3fad6092a5a28cbb72bdef33e6eaced5ab", "name": "0xc265ab3f\u2026", "weight": 0.0171, "tier": "validated", "z": 3.34, "z_oos": 2.06, "n": 1185, "win_rate": 99.2, "avg_entry": 0.98, "band_0204": 0.0, "rank": 21, "arch": "favorite", "wins": 1176}, {"wallet": "0x6d3c9fe9cb9a7e006c99b13bdd0451ab5059c74a", "name": "0x6D3C9fE9CB9A7e006C99b13bDd0451aB5059C74a-1775205794013", "weight": 0.0169, "tier": "validated", "z": 3.3, "z_oos": 0.22, "n": 1308, "win_rate": 29.8, "avg_entry": 0.26, "band_0204": 0.4, "rank": 22, "arch": "value", "wins": 390}, {"wallet": "0x50c0959535cf830f6b73c5366a02f2cce3aa1600", "name": "LidoRzitoni", "weight": 0.0169, "tier": "validated", "z": 3.29, "z_oos": 1.49, "n": 212, "win_rate": 34.4, "avg_entry": 0.26, "band_0204": 0.32, "rank": 23, "arch": "value", "wins": 73}];
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const fmtW=w=>w.length>14?w.slice(0,6)+'…'+w.slice(-4):w;
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let sortK='z',asc=false,open=null;
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const body=document.getElementById('body');
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function render(){
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const q=document.getElementById('q').value.toLowerCase();
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const af=document.getElementById('arch').value;
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let rows=DATA.filter(r=>(!af||r.arch===af)&&
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(!q||(r.name||'').toLowerCase().includes(q)||r.wallet.toLowerCase().includes(q)));
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rows.sort((a,b)=>{const x=a[sortK],y=b[sortK];return (asc?1:-1)*((x>y)-(x<y));});
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body.innerHTML=rows.map(r=>{
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const zc=r.z>=10?'var(--violet)':r.z>=6?'var(--green)':'var(--fg)';
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const oc=r.z_oos>=5?'var(--green)':r.z_oos>=3?'var(--amber)':'var(--red)';
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const bw=Math.round(r.band_0204*46);
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return `<tr class="row" data-w="${r.wallet}">
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<td>${r.rank}</td>
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<td class="name">${r.name||fmtW(r.wallet)}<div class="mono">${fmtW(r.wallet)}</div></td>
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<td class="z" style="color:${zc}">${r.z.toFixed(1)}</td>
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<td class="z" style="color:${oc}">${r.z_oos==null?'—':r.z_oos.toFixed(1)}</td>
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<td>${r.wins}/${r.n}</td>
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<td>${r.win_rate.toFixed(0)}%</td>
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<td>${r.avg_entry.toFixed(2)}</td>
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<td><span class="bar" style="width:${bw}px"></span> ${(r.band_0204*100).toFixed(0)}%</td>
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<td><span class="pill ${r.arch}">${r.arch}</span></td></tr>`;
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}).join('')||'<tr><td colspan="9" style="text-align:center;color:var(--dim);padding:24px">no matches</td></tr>';
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}
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body.addEventListener('click',async e=>{
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const tr=e.target.closest('tr.row'); if(!tr)return;
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const w=tr.dataset.w;
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const nx=tr.nextElementSibling;
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if(nx&&nx.classList.contains('det')){nx.remove();return;}
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document.querySelectorAll('tr.det').forEach(x=>x.remove());
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const d=document.createElement('tr');d.className='det';
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d.innerHTML=`<td colspan="9">loading recent trades… · <a href="https://polymarket.com/profile/${w}" target="_blank">open profile ↗</a></td>`;
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tr.after(d);
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try{
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const r=await fetch(`https://data-api.polymarket.com/activity?user=${w}&type=TRADE&limit=8`);
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const ts=await r.json();
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const rows=(ts||[]).map(t=>`<div class="trade"><span class="${t.side==='BUY'?'b':'s'}">${t.side}</span>
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<span>${(t.outcome||'')} · ${(t.title||'').slice(0,52)}</span>
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<span style="margin-left:auto;color:var(--dim)">${((t.price||0)*100).toFixed(0)}¢</span></div>`).join('');
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d.firstChild.innerHTML=`<a href="https://polymarket.com/profile/${w}" target="_blank">open profile ↗</a><div style="margin-top:6px">${rows||'no recent trades'}</div>`;
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}catch(err){d.firstChild.innerHTML=`<a href="https://polymarket.com/profile/${w}" target="_blank">open profile ↗</a> · live feed unavailable`;}
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});
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document.querySelectorAll('th').forEach(th=>th.onclick=()=>{
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const k=th.dataset.k; if(k===sortK)asc=!asc;else{sortK=k;asc=(k==='rank'||k==='avg_entry');} render();});
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document.getElementById('q').oninput=render;
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document.getElementById('arch').onchange=render;
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document.getElementById('sort').onchange=e=>{sortK=e.target.value;asc=false;render();};
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render();
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</script></body></html> |