winning-wallet-finder_github/HANDOFF.md

HANDOFF — the living state of the world

The work queue lives in GitHub Issues (migrated 2026-07-19): gh issue list · labels = silo (copybot/recorder/pipeline/dashboard) × type (hardening/bug/research/strategy/ops/user-todo/ pre-registered/post-mortem) · milestones = the standing rhythms (audit backlog, Friday bench reviews, verdict gates). Commits that resolve one say closes #N. The July-2026 narrative/evidence log is FROZEN in HANDOFF_ARCHIVE.md — incident post-mortems, decision rationale, the whole story. This file stays ~a page: boundary, snapshot, ops.

Issue burndown 2026-07-19 (audit → shipped)

Migrated the queue to GitHub Issues (labels/milestones; closes #N in commits). Closed same day: #3 webhook rotated · #5 listeners start after seed · #6 dead-code sweep (retired copytrade CLI + LiveExecutor) · #7 chain-balance gate in reconcile_exits + retry (kills the BetBoom zombie class) · #8 rpc-down heartbeat flag · #9 memory caps (skipped recency- bounded, settled bets >30d spool to an archive with drift-invariant compensation — TESTED identical drift) · #10 publish-failure alarm · #11 tape ingest sftp-first (base64 fallback) · #12 reconcile_entries 5m→30m. REOPENED #4: the redeemer's phantom-cash BOOBY TRAP is fixed + proven (on-chain sim SUCCESS; live fails honestly), but actually redeeming needs a Builder API Key (SDK gasless relay) the runtime bot deliberately lacks — LOW urgency, the platform auto-redeems winners itself. auto_redeem OFF. Open now: #1 Signal A, #2 tape research, #4 redeem builder-key, #13 Fri bench, #14 edge verdict, #15 tape-pull batching (Stage-0 fold+mirror superseded the bulk path; sync now sftp-with-base64-fallback), #16 surge momentum CLOSED 2026-07-23 (kill executed as pre-registered — both instruments chain-true; A2 runs through Friday's #19 read), #17 oracle fair value (E0.04 killed; higher tiers ledger-positive but harness-vetoed — taker arm evidence-dead, decision Friday), #19 surge sprint plan (Friday: disposition), #20/#21 execution flips FLIPPED LIVE 2026-07-23 18:36Z (windows open, bars at n≥30 each), #22 Study C lean-follow (pre-registered, frozen 052eda0; window opens with the first nightly lean rows), #23 Study D sibling lead-lag (pre-registered; wwf-lagbot DEPLOYED 2026-07-23 20:56Z, shakedown numbers on the issue), #24 three-book reconciliation (v0: backtest absolutes = decoration, 82-112% unseen+missed; reject-logging + tick-size retry LIVE 2026-07-24 @d4fff27), #25 Study E position-scope conviction (pre-registered; dark flag @85954d8 — conviction_scope trade|position, rolling net-USD aggregate; flip = operator's call). #18 (empty-cond copies unsettleable) closed same day: RTDS seed enrichment + falsy-cond repair pass + 1h alarm.

Operating boundary (user, 2026-07-13 — standing)

Full autonomy on the bots; the real-money bot stays ARMED. Never touch the private key, Discord alerts webhook ROTATED 2026-07-19 (#3 closed), sizing/caps/deposits are the USER's call. USER DIRECTIVE 2026-07-16: the live bot mirrors the paper test EXACTLY (one deliberate exception: min_order_usd $1 = venue reality). If something looks genuinely dangerous, DISARM (flyctl secrets unset LIVE_CONFIRM -a wwf-copybot-live) rather than push through.

Snapshot (2026-07-23)

• wwf-copybot-live (REAL, ARMED): ~$62 equity ($66.42 contributed, realized −$12.17 lifetime — day-one incident + honest recognitions), 7-wallet Set E rev 5 (JuiceFarm promoted 2026-07-23 off the #13 bench method run early: +17%/+34% both windows, insider z 2.5, 1% refunds; auto p80 floor $753), 4% of working equity/bet. #20 LIVE at 0108cca; #21 SUPERSEDED at 54f4c51 (2026-07-23 22:35Z) — both books run entry_mode maker (GTC at the sharp's price, 60s registry TTL — T11: 60s is already optimal) + band-guarded mirror: exit_mode mirror + mirror_sell_min_p 0.90. Sell-band study: every band <90¢ LOSES by mirroring, ≥90¢ SAVES — so ≥90¢ sells mirror (profit-locks, frees capital), sub-band sells are ignored + ledgered (reason:"band") to copybot_ignored_exits[.live].jsonl. Backtest parity reads +41% band-mirror vs +36% pure-hold. #20 window open (bars at n>=30); #21's ~28h pure-hold sample preserved in the ledgers; revert = one config flip back. wwf-copybot (paper $1k): same set, same modes. Both on the audit-hardened build (locks, chain-gated sweep, boot-id single-writer guard, TLS'd user-ws — HANDOFF_ARCHIVE rev 16). 2026-07-20: FAK no-match OPENs get one re-quote retry on both bots, PER-NICHE waits from measured crater-refill times (crypto 4s / esports 10s / sports+slow 25s — research/params/requote_timing.json; fak_retry_niche_s override, fak_retry_s fallback+kill-switch; second rejection tags "twice").
• wwf-recorder: the FULL firehose (trades + order matches + comments
  • crypto ticks, ~8M events/day, dual-socket ~99.9% capture, 25GB volume). Stage-0 warehouse 2026-07-21: the box folds its own segments → zstd Parquet partitions on the volume (fold.py sidecar, row-parity verified, manifest + Mac-ack deletion protocol — invariant STRONGER than before); the Mac mirrors + appends into live/rtds.duckdb every 15 min (com.jaxperro.tape-sync → recorder/sync_tape.py). Tape freshness: nightly → ~15 min; the box no longer needs the Mac to stay healthy. live/parquet/ = complete durable layer (Stage-1 MotherDuck feedstock).
• VALUE experiment: CLOSED 2026-07-19 — sub-2¢ hypothesis refuted (1W/993L, 0.075x); post-mortem in archive/value/PLAN.md; app destroyed.
• research/ (SILO — never touches the bots): tape-era edge factory. Sharp screen (live/tape_sharps.py, proxy chain-validated 742/742, 25 copyable candidates); execution sim fitted on 29 labeled live attempts. 2026-07-22 SCORER LAW (FINDINGS round-3): every arm scores through payouts_for() — tape proxy + mandatory CTF chain overlay. "Pending" is never outcome-neutral on Polymarket (market liveness encodes the outcome: losses hide behind the still-trading winning sibling). Study A surge (#16): KILLED by that correction (−$6.03/fill × 1,108 forward fills; identity-null stands). Study B oracle (#17): E0.04 killed, E≥0.07 accumulating slightly positive. Verdicts ONLY from research/forward_ledger.jsonl.
• wwf-surgebot (PAPER, ~$3/mo): THE instrument that caught the scorer bug (its 57.5% refused to match the ledger's 81%). v1 cash-gated book halted 2026-07-22 at its pre-registered −50% line (state + ledger frozen as audit artifacts); relaunched same day as A2 measurement arm — every trigger paper-FAK'd at $100, attempts/markouts/settles append-only on the volume, the $100/5% spec replayed OFFLINE nightly (surge_book_replay.py → surge_book.json). Runs through Friday's read; its capture/depth/latency streams feed successor hypotheses per #19.
• wwf-oraclebot (PAPER, ~$3/mo, live 2026-07-22): Study B real-time harness — fair value tick-by-tick on the venue's own settlement feed, all E-tiers tracked, $100 FAK walks, three settle layers ending in nightly chain truth (grade_oracle.py → oracle_paper_ledger.jsonl). First chain grade (2026-07-23): E≥0.07 −$8.51/fill (n=235), E≥0.10 −$5.90 (n=127), ~40% hit — real execution loses at every tier while the sim ledger reads positive. Both instruments share the scorer now, so the divergence is the sim's 6.7s-lag FILL model flattering the tiers (round 3's lesson recurring in the fill model). Taker arm is evidence-dead; formal tier bars keep accruing; maker pivot (T1 sim) KILLED at Stage 1 same night — staleness IS the adverse selection.
• wwf-lagbot (PAPER, ~$3/mo, deployed 2026-07-23 20:56Z): Study D #23 — T9's sibling lead-lag edge (+$9.73/$100 tape, n=2,028, stale-print optimism stated) at real books. Leader bursts ≥10¢/120s → paper-FAK $100 on ≤2 lagging same-outcome siblings at ≤ stale+4¢; down-moves buy the sibling's COMPLEMENT token; cooldown 600s/event. Attempts log every standing ask premium — the observational kill-switch (median ≥+8¢ over 3 days = mirage) can kill without a paper sample. Shakedown 07-23: first 8 attempts' median +8.5¢ (AT the bar — mirages concentrate in handicap/spread siblings with ancient prints); the 3 fills were +1-2¢, one $0.55-of-$100 partial → grade_lag reports $/episode AND %-of-staked. PASS ≥+$4/$100 @ n≥400/≥5d · KILL ≤0 @ n≥300. Nightly grade_lag.py → lag_paper_ledger.jsonl.
• Data moat (2026-07-22, DATA LAW in research/README): all raw streams append-only and Mac-independent (Fly volumes + daily snapshots; recorder has ~3+ weeks offline headroom); forward.py backfills ledger-missing days after any Mac gap; meta_snap.py snapshots ~12k active markets nightly (τ-at-trigger + token→outcome for every future study). Markout study (chain-true): NO scalp inside the dead surge signal — hidden-loss cohort bleeds from minute one; taker case closed at every horizon.
• Verdicts pending: edge/size-up (#14, ~end of July, pre-registered) · Friday's combined read (#13 bench + #16 formal close [A2 chain grade −$7.54/fill × 1,344 independently confirms the kill; virtual book's +26% on n=46 is the variance footnote, not a signal] + #17 taker-arm decision + #19 disposition + early #20/#21 window check — every number chain-true) · #22 lean-follow (PASS ≥+$2/lean & hit≥.56 @ n≥1,500; KILL ≤0 @ n≥1,000) · #23 lead-lag (bars above). Ten tandem tests 2026-07-23 (scripts + verdicts in research/): batch one — T3 maker entries +$17.45 vs +$12.86 taker → #20; sells anti-signal → #21; 673-wallet maker-sharp species → inventory-lean line; sibling-sum = print artifact; T5 esports concentration → #14 tension. Batch two — T6 lean-follow → #22 (fade arm FAILED its concentration gate, report-only); T9 lead-lag → #23; T1 maker-quote Stage-1 KILL; T7 settlement-discount industrialized, parked; T8 crater-rejects were good misses; T10 age gradient needs sample. Batch three (same night) — T11: #20's 60s TTL already optimal, patience past 60s = adverse selection; T12: maker-sharp unwinds NOT exit signals (STAY +$5.95/unwind n=265; Study C keeps no exit rule; #22 comment); T14: balanced-book imbalance band (0.25-0.47) = portable fill-guard candidate for #23; T15: sharp-screen churn 49%/1d, ~10%/28d (EV-by-age grade pending its chain-ensure).
• Backtest = paper-execution parity (2026-07-23, 004911b): live/portfolio.py replays the PAPER book's follow flags (maker feeless entries — declared optimistic bound; hold-through exits; sold-unresolved carry as open at the exit print). The backtest is NO LONGER a taker control — it tracks whatever copybot.paper.json runs. First maker/hold run: equity +36%, 0 fees, 86 resolved (vs 390 under mirror) — hold-mode LOCKS capital, misses swell to 1,588; that is #21's cost side, visible. /trading gained a "Profitable bench" section (realized + would-be-missed > 0): 12/15 clear it; JuiceFarm trimmed (+$33 realized, −$72 would-be). JuiceFarm's conviction floor pins at the next 08:00 sync_floors run (whole-book copies until then — flagged 2026-07-23 evening). TWO backtest books daily now: portfolio.json (15-wallet bench → "Profitable bench" section) + portfolio_follow.json (--follow-only, followed 7 → "Back Test") — follow-only reads +312% vs +41% bench at the same $1k: bench crowding was starving the follow set's capital in the shared replay. Bank sweep (1/2/5/10k): missed COUNT barely moves (1,569→1,501) — %-of-equity sizing self-throttles, so capturing the missed pool is a sizing-fraction question (user's call), not a bank-size question. All /trading wallet cards open the detail modal (bench-only wallets fall back to replay rows).
• Dashboards: jaxperro.com/{trading,live,test,value} — /test = all four studies on one page (old /surge + /oracle URLs redirect) · daily pipeline on the Mac at 08:00 (launchd, lockfile) — floors, bench forward table, edge row, tape sync, Discord digest · tape mirror every 15 min (com.jaxperro.tape-sync → sync_tape.py, sftp + base64-console fallback) · research nightly fires 09:15 then WAITS for fresh tape (com.jaxperro.research-nightly; self-commits ledger + lean rows, informed set, surge/oracle/lag grades, virtual book, meta snapshot). All launchd agents removable with launchctl unload ~/Library/LaunchAgents/<label>.plist.

OFFLINE PAUSE (2026-07-23 evening — user traveling)

All three Mac launchd agents UNLOADED at user request (bandwidth): tape-sync, research-nightly, skilled-daily. T15 (sharp_halflife) killed mid-ensure — resumable. Re-enable: launchctl load ~/Library/LaunchAgents/com.jaxperro.<name>.plist x3, rerun sharp_halflife.py. pmset 07:58 wake still armed (user sudo to cancel). Fly side fully autonomous: recorder (~3+ weeks headroom), 3 harnesses, both copybots — nothing depends on the Mac while paused. On return the tape mirror + nightly self-heal (freshness wait + ledger backfill).

Floors FROZEN (user directive 2026-07-24)

All 7 conviction floors floor_pin'd at the 07-24 p80s (Kruto 80 · 0xbadaf319 27.50 · gkm 470.51 · 1kto1m 314.91 · Bikes 227.01 · AIcAIc 379.05 · JuiceFarm 735) across copybot.paper.json + config.live.example

• backtest.json. sync_floors respects floor_pin — the daily no longer moves them. Re-pin = REMOVE floor_pin deliberately (a windowed act, not an 08:00 side effect). Rationale: drifting floors change what gets copied daily and contaminate open windows (#20/#25/reconcile baselines).

Ops quick-reference

• Follow-set change: edit live/copybot.paper.json → ./live/deploy_bot.sh; mirror config.live.example.json (nothing auto-writes it) + backtest.json.
• Tape now: python3 recorder/sync_tape.py (launchd does it every 15 min); box-side fold health: flyctl logs -a wwf-recorder (grep [fold]).
• State surgery: stop the machine, watch heartbeats actually CEASE (gotcha 15c — and the boot-id guard now makes a zombie writer yield), pull → edit → push → start → verify the first heartbeat.
• Code deploy: push + flyctl apps restart <app> (boots clone main, clone-guard verifies). Image changes: flyctl deploy --remote-only -c <toml> --ha=false. Never two machines per app.
• The bots commit their own state — always git pull --rebase --autostash before pushing from a session.
• Read next: README.md (architecture + gotchas 1-18) · FINDINGS.md (research story) · archive/value/PLAN.md (the refutation) · HANDOFF_ARCHIVE.md (history).