mirror of
https://github.com/jaxperro/winning-wallet-finder.git
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jaxperro
a426b8bb05
The scanner measured win rate over /closed-positions only, but Polymarket only redeems winning shares — losers sit unredeemed in /positions at curPrice 0 and never enter closed-positions. That made win rates wildly inflated (e.g. 90.6% vs a true 48.3%). Win rate now unions both endpoints over a 90-day window. With the honest metric, ~no top wallet exceeds ~60%; true rates cluster near 50%. Also: - backtest.py: replay a watchlist over a recent window, fill at historical price, mark outcomes from resolution. A 7d run of 4 top wallets returned -48%, confirming flat-size entry-copying is -EV at ~50% hit rates. - copytrade.py: add max_position_usd cap (proportional adds could otherwise balloon one position to the whole exposure limit) and Discord webhook alerts on every would-be trade. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
24 lines
500 B
JSON
24 lines
500 B
JSON
{
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"mode": "paper",
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"poll_seconds": 12,
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"discord_webhook": "",
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"watchlist": [],
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"bankroll_usd": 1000.0,
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"bankroll_pct": 0.02,
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"price_guard_pct": 0.05,
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"risk": {
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"max_trade_usd": 50.0,
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"max_position_usd": 40.0,
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"daily_spend_cap_usd": 250.0,
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"max_total_exposure_usd": 500.0,
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"max_open_positions": 20,
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"min_price": 0.05,
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"max_price": 0.95,
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"min_order_usd": 5.0
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},
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"live": {
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"private_key": "",
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"funder_address": "",
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"signature_type": 1
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}
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} |