winning-wallet-finder_github/live

live/ — find & track the genuinely-skilled ~3%

Finds the small fraction of Polymarket wallets with a real, repeatable edge — the ~3% the LBS/Yale study identifies — from the live data-api, caches everything locally, and tracks them forward. This is the going-forward system; the frozen-subgraph bulk approach lives in ../wide/.

Why this and not win rate

Win rate is survivorship-biased and decoupled from edge (see ../FINDINGS.md). A wallet is "skilled" only if it beats the prices it paid and that edge persists out-of-sample. We reproduced the research's own finding on live June data: favorite-rider wallets that looked +23.6% in-sample lost −7.4% once selected without look-ahead (see "The clean test" below).

The 5-gate funnel (skill.py)

A wallet counts as skilled only if it clears all five:

1. n ≥ 15 resolved bets (assessability; the paper's skilled avg ~79).
2. z = (wins − Σp)/√Σp(1−p) clearly > 0 — wins above what entry odds implied. This is the closed form of the paper's "randomize direction 10k×" benchmark.
3. Benjamini–Hochberg FDR @ 5% — at scale, thousands clear z>3 by chance.
4. Split-half out-of-sample — skill in the earlier half persists in the recent half (z_oos > 0). The gate that separates the real 3% from the lucky.
5. MM/bot cap (n ≤ 2500) — a thousands-of-bets grinder isn't info-edge.

Win rate is never a gate — only displayed. Wallets are tagged value (beats underdog/longshot prices — the copyable alpha), balanced, or favorite (high win% riding near-certain favorites — real but thin/uncopyable).

Pipeline

step	script	what
enumerate	enumerate.py [days]	recent liquid markets (Gamma end_date_min) → top traders → candidate pool (candidates.json), accumulates across runs
cache	cache.py / collect.py	pull each wallet's resolved bets once into cache.duckdb (24s → 0.003s on re-read). Stores res_t per bet, so any date cutoff reads the same cache
score	skill.py [N]	the 5-gate funnel over cached candidates → watch_skilled.json (webhook-compatible)
dashboard	dashboard.py	self-contained dashboard.html — sortable, archetype-tagged, live recent-trade lookup
backtest	backtest_june.py [arch]	copy an archetype's June-1+ entries, $1000, no lag → P&L
clean test	clean_test.sh	the honest test: re-select on pre-June-1 data only, then backtest June-1+ forward

The cache is the point

cache.duckdb holds ~26k wallets / 12.5M+ bets, pulled once. Every score — any archetype, any cutoff, the clean OOS test — now runs in seconds instead of hours of API pulls. MAX_AGE_DAYS=14: the broad pool refreshes biweekly; the watchlist is force-refreshed daily (cache.invalidate) for forward tracking.

The clean test (why the favorites are a mirage)

clean_test.sh selects favorites using only bets resolved before June 1, then copies their June-1+ entries:

• In-sample (contaminated): 21 favorites, 99% win rate, +23.6%.
• Clean (pre-June-1 selection): 15 favorites, 68% win rate, −7.4% (−19% on the settled portion).

The +23.6% was selection bias. This matches the paper: ~60% of "lucky winners" turn into losers out-of-sample. Don't copy favorite-riders. The value archetype (beats underdog prices) is where real alpha may live — test it with backtest_june.py value.

Strategy backtests

• strategy.py — train (pre-May-30) / test (June1+) wallet selection on copy-ROI
  • z + monthly consistency + diversification. → selection.json.
• followability.py — pull entry timestamps (cached), drop wallets whose edge is in un-followable fast/live markets, re-rank on followable forward bets. → watch_final.json (the execution-realistic list).
• pnl_basket.py / pnl_focused.py — $1,000 capital-constrained copy sims with missed-trade accounting. Key result: the broad basket loses on $1k (can't follow 1,200 trades), but 1–2 wallets + a conviction (bet-size) filter clears out-of-sample. See ../FINDINGS.md.

The repeatable find (conviction_scan.py + validate_timing.py)

The best result. Score wallets on their high-conviction bets only — the top 20% by stake size (per-wallet p80, not a flat $200): the edge is wallets that win 70–80% on genuinely-uncertain (~0.4–0.6) markets — real skill, not favorite-riding. The per-wallet cutoff reproduces flat-$200's win-rate lift while adapting to each wallet's scale (a whale's $200 bet isn't conviction; a minnow's is).

• conviction_scan.py — train pre-June / validate June on conviction bets → 218 matches, 62/83 profitable forward (p≈0). → conviction_wallets.json.
• validate_timing.py — the copyability gate: entry→resolution lead time on winning conviction bets separates copyable sharps (multi-day lead) from "last-minute" wallets (median lead <24h) we can't mirror in time — could be genuine insiders or just fast-resolving-market specialists, can't tell which. Also drops wallets inactive >30d. → ~31 validated copyable sharps in watch_sharps.json (shown live on jaxperro.com/trading). It additionally precomputes every stat the dashboard renders — incl. copy_pnl, the authoritative flat-$50 copy P&L (replay entries, mirror exits, settle held bets at clob resolution by token_id). Copy P&L is the real copyability signal — position win% over-counts scalpers (see FINDINGS "the scalper trap"); the table defaults to sorting by it.

Identifiers for a follow-worthy wallet: on its ≥$200 bets — win ≥65%, avg entry 0.35–0.70 (edge, not favorites), +copy-ROI, FDR-significant, median lead ≥24h (copyable), and it holds out-of-sample.

Daily (daily.sh)

1. discover (enumerate last 14d) → 2. freshen cache (force-refresh watchlist + top up new wallets) → 3. re-score (instant from cache) → 4. regenerate dashboard

• snapshot to history/. Schedule via launchd/cron (Mac must be awake).

Usage

pip install duckdb
python3 enumerate.py 180        # build candidate pool (last 6 months)
python3 collect.py              # cache all candidates (one-time, slow; resumable)
python3 skill.py                # -> watch_skilled.json (seconds, from cache)
python3 dashboard.py            # -> dashboard.html
./clean_test.sh                 # the out-of-sample verdict

Local data (*.duckdb, candidates.json, *_scored.json, history/) is gitignored — regenerate via the steps above.