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jaxperro 5ed55009b5 Polymarket smart money tracker: find >75% win-rate wallets betting weekly

Dashboard + terminal tool that pulls the 7d/30d/all leaderboards, measures
each wallet's win rate over its most recent resolved bets, and its distinct
markets traded per week. Zero dependencies (Python 3 stdlib only).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

2026-06-12 22:03:00 -04:00

1.9 KiB

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Polymarket Smart Money

Finds Polymarket wallets that win more than 75% of their resolved bets and bet multiple times per week — the "smart money" worth watching.

Zero dependencies. One file, Python 3 stdlib only.

Run the dashboard

python3 smart_money.py

Open http://localhost:8899, hit Scan, and wait a minute or two. Adjust the filters (win rate, bets/week, minimum resolved bets, candidate pool size) and the table updates live while the scan runs. Click any trader to see their recent resolved bets and a link to their Polymarket profile.

Run in the terminal

python3 smart_money.py --scan            # default 150-wallet pool
python3 smart_money.py --scan --pool 300 # broader sweep

How it works

Candidates — pulls the 7d, 30d, and all-time leaderboards from data-api.polymarket.com/v1/leaderboard and dedupes into a candidate pool (default 150 wallets).
Win rate — for each wallet, pages through /closed-positions (up to 300 most recent resolved positions). A win is a resolved position with realizedPnl > 0.
Frequency — counts trades from /activity over the last 4 weeks; bets/week is the number of distinct markets traded per week, so 50 fills on one order don't count as 50 bets.
Filter — keeps wallets with win rate ≥ 75%, ≥ 2 bets/week, and ≥ 10 resolved bets (so a 3-for-3 fluke doesn't rank as a 100% winner).

Caveats

Candidates come from the leaderboards, so this surfaces profitable sharps. A high-win-rate wallet that has never cracked any leaderboard window won't appear — scanning every wallet on the platform isn't feasible via the public API.
Win rate is measured over each wallet's most recent ~300 resolved positions, not their entire history.
High win rate ≠ high EV: someone selling early for +$1 on every position counts as winning. Check the realized PnL column alongside the win rate.