winning-wallet-finder_github/HANDOFF.md

HANDOFF — the living state of the world

The work queue lives in GitHub Issues (migrated 2026-07-19): gh issue list · labels = silo (copybot/recorder/pipeline/dashboard) × type (hardening/bug/research/strategy/ops/user-todo/ pre-registered/post-mortem) · milestones = the standing rhythms (audit backlog, Friday bench reviews, verdict gates). Commits that resolve one say closes #N. The July-2026 narrative/evidence log is FROZEN in HANDOFF_ARCHIVE.md — incident post-mortems, decision rationale, the whole story. This file stays ~a page: boundary, snapshot, ops.

Issue burndown 2026-07-19 (audit → shipped)

Migrated the queue to GitHub Issues (labels/milestones; closes #N in commits). Closed same day: #3 webhook rotated · #5 listeners start after seed · #6 dead-code sweep (retired copytrade CLI + LiveExecutor) · #7 chain-balance gate in reconcile_exits + retry (kills the BetBoom zombie class) · #8 rpc-down heartbeat flag · #9 memory caps (skipped recency- bounded, settled bets >30d spool to an archive with drift-invariant compensation — TESTED identical drift) · #10 publish-failure alarm · #11 tape ingest sftp-first (base64 fallback) · #12 reconcile_entries 5m→30m. REOPENED #4: the redeemer's phantom-cash BOOBY TRAP is fixed + proven (on-chain sim SUCCESS; live fails honestly), but actually redeeming needs a Builder API Key (SDK gasless relay) the runtime bot deliberately lacks — LOW urgency, the platform auto-redeems winners itself. auto_redeem OFF. Open now: #1 Signal A, #2 tape research, #4 redeem builder-key, #13 Fri bench, #14 edge verdict, #15 tape-pull batching (Stage-0 fold+mirror superseded the bulk path; sync now sftp-with-base64-fallback), #16 surge momentum CLOSED 2026-07-23 (kill executed as pre-registered — both instruments chain-true; A2 runs through Friday's #19 read), #17 oracle fair value (E0.04 killed; higher tiers ledger-positive but harness-vetoed — taker arm evidence-dead, decision Friday), #19 surge sprint plan (Friday: disposition), #20/#21 execution flips FLIPPED LIVE 2026-07-23 18:36Z (windows open, bars at n≥30 each), #22 Study C lean-follow (pre-registered, frozen 052eda0; window opens with the first nightly lean rows), #23 Study D sibling lead-lag (pre-registered; wwf-lagbot DEPLOYED 2026-07-23 20:56Z, shakedown numbers on the issue). #18 (empty-cond copies unsettleable) closed same day: RTDS seed enrichment + falsy-cond repair pass + 1h alarm.

Operating boundary (user, 2026-07-13 — standing)

Full autonomy on the bots; the real-money bot stays ARMED. Never touch the private key, Discord alerts webhook ROTATED 2026-07-19 (#3 closed), sizing/caps/deposits are the USER's call. USER DIRECTIVE 2026-07-16: the live bot mirrors the paper test EXACTLY (one deliberate exception: min_order_usd $1 = venue reality). If something looks genuinely dangerous, DISARM (flyctl secrets unset LIVE_CONFIRM -a wwf-copybot-live) rather than push through.

Snapshot (2026-07-23)

• wwf-copybot-live (REAL, ARMED): ~$62 equity ($66.42 contributed, realized −$12.17 lifetime — day-one incident + honest recognitions), 7-wallet Set E rev 5 (JuiceFarm promoted 2026-07-23 off the #13 bench method run early: +17%/+34% both windows, insider z 2.5, 1% refunds; auto p80 floor $753), 4% of working equity/bet. #20/#21 FLIPPED LIVE 2026-07-23 18:36 UTC at 0108cca — both books now run entry_mode maker (GTC at the sharp's price, 60s registry TTL, no chase) + exit_mode hold (mirrored exits ignored + ledgered to copybot_ignored_exits[.live].jsonl as the live counterfactual). Forward windows open at that commit; verdict bars per #20/#21 at n>=30; revert = one config flip back. wwf-copybot (paper $1k): same set, same modes. Both on the audit-hardened build (locks, chain-gated sweep, boot-id single-writer guard, TLS'd user-ws — HANDOFF_ARCHIVE rev 16). 2026-07-20: FAK no-match OPENs get one re-quote retry on both bots, PER-NICHE waits from measured crater-refill times (crypto 4s / esports 10s / sports+slow 25s — research/params/requote_timing.json; fak_retry_niche_s override, fak_retry_s fallback+kill-switch; second rejection tags "twice").
• wwf-recorder: the FULL firehose (trades + order matches + comments
  • crypto ticks, ~8M events/day, dual-socket ~99.9% capture, 25GB volume). Stage-0 warehouse 2026-07-21: the box folds its own segments → zstd Parquet partitions on the volume (fold.py sidecar, row-parity verified, manifest + Mac-ack deletion protocol — invariant STRONGER than before); the Mac mirrors + appends into live/rtds.duckdb every 15 min (com.jaxperro.tape-sync → recorder/sync_tape.py). Tape freshness: nightly → ~15 min; the box no longer needs the Mac to stay healthy. live/parquet/ = complete durable layer (Stage-1 MotherDuck feedstock).
• VALUE experiment: CLOSED 2026-07-19 — sub-2¢ hypothesis refuted (1W/993L, 0.075x); post-mortem in archive/value/PLAN.md; app destroyed.
• research/ (SILO — never touches the bots): tape-era edge factory. Sharp screen (live/tape_sharps.py, proxy chain-validated 742/742, 25 copyable candidates); execution sim fitted on 29 labeled live attempts. 2026-07-22 SCORER LAW (FINDINGS round-3): every arm scores through payouts_for() — tape proxy + mandatory CTF chain overlay. "Pending" is never outcome-neutral on Polymarket (market liveness encodes the outcome: losses hide behind the still-trading winning sibling). Study A surge (#16): KILLED by that correction (−$6.03/fill × 1,108 forward fills; identity-null stands). Study B oracle (#17): E0.04 killed, E≥0.07 accumulating slightly positive. Verdicts ONLY from research/forward_ledger.jsonl.
• wwf-surgebot (PAPER, ~$3/mo): THE instrument that caught the scorer bug (its 57.5% refused to match the ledger's 81%). v1 cash-gated book halted 2026-07-22 at its pre-registered −50% line (state + ledger frozen as audit artifacts); relaunched same day as A2 measurement arm — every trigger paper-FAK'd at $100, attempts/markouts/settles append-only on the volume, the $100/5% spec replayed OFFLINE nightly (surge_book_replay.py → surge_book.json). Runs through Friday's read; its capture/depth/latency streams feed successor hypotheses per #19.
• wwf-oraclebot (PAPER, ~$3/mo, live 2026-07-22): Study B real-time harness — fair value tick-by-tick on the venue's own settlement feed, all E-tiers tracked, $100 FAK walks, three settle layers ending in nightly chain truth (grade_oracle.py → oracle_paper_ledger.jsonl). First chain grade (2026-07-23): E≥0.07 −$8.51/fill (n=235), E≥0.10 −$5.90 (n=127), ~40% hit — real execution loses at every tier while the sim ledger reads positive. Both instruments share the scorer now, so the divergence is the sim's 6.7s-lag FILL model flattering the tiers (round 3's lesson recurring in the fill model). Taker arm is evidence-dead; formal tier bars keep accruing; maker pivot (T1 sim) KILLED at Stage 1 same night — staleness IS the adverse selection.
• wwf-lagbot (PAPER, ~$3/mo, deployed 2026-07-23 20:56Z): Study D #23 — T9's sibling lead-lag edge (+$9.73/$100 tape, n=2,028, stale-print optimism stated) at real books. Leader bursts ≥10¢/120s → paper-FAK $100 on ≤2 lagging same-outcome siblings at ≤ stale+4¢; down-moves buy the sibling's COMPLEMENT token; cooldown 600s/event. Attempts log every standing ask premium — the observational kill-switch (median ≥+8¢ over 3 days = mirage) can kill without a paper sample. Shakedown 07-23: first 8 attempts' median +8.5¢ (AT the bar — mirages concentrate in handicap/spread siblings with ancient prints); the 3 fills were +1-2¢, one $0.55-of-$100 partial → grade_lag reports $/episode AND %-of-staked. PASS ≥+$4/$100 @ n≥400/≥5d · KILL ≤0 @ n≥300. Nightly grade_lag.py → lag_paper_ledger.jsonl.
• Data moat (2026-07-22, DATA LAW in research/README): all raw streams append-only and Mac-independent (Fly volumes + daily snapshots; recorder has ~3+ weeks offline headroom); forward.py backfills ledger-missing days after any Mac gap; meta_snap.py snapshots ~12k active markets nightly (τ-at-trigger + token→outcome for every future study). Markout study (chain-true): NO scalp inside the dead surge signal — hidden-loss cohort bleeds from minute one; taker case closed at every horizon.
• Verdicts pending: edge/size-up (#14, ~end of July, pre-registered) · Friday's combined read (#13 bench + #16 formal close [A2 chain grade −$7.54/fill × 1,344 independently confirms the kill; virtual book's +26% on n=46 is the variance footnote, not a signal] + #17 taker-arm decision + #19 disposition + early #20/#21 window check — every number chain-true) · #22 lean-follow (PASS ≥+$2/lean & hit≥.56 @ n≥1,500; KILL ≤0 @ n≥1,000) · #23 lead-lag (bars above). Ten tandem tests 2026-07-23 (scripts + verdicts in research/): batch one — T3 maker entries +$17.45 vs +$12.86 taker → #20; sells anti-signal → #21; 673-wallet maker-sharp species → inventory-lean line; sibling-sum = print artifact; T5 esports concentration → #14 tension. Batch two — T6 lean-follow → #22 (fade arm FAILED its concentration gate, report-only); T9 lead-lag → #23; T1 maker-quote Stage-1 KILL; T7 settlement-discount industrialized, parked; T8 crater-rejects were good misses; T10 age gradient needs sample.
• Dashboards: jaxperro.com/{trading,live,test,value} — /test = all four studies on one page (old /surge + /oracle URLs redirect) · daily pipeline on the Mac at 08:00 (launchd, lockfile) — floors, bench forward table, edge row, tape sync, Discord digest · tape mirror every 15 min (com.jaxperro.tape-sync → sync_tape.py, sftp + base64-console fallback) · research nightly fires 09:15 then WAITS for fresh tape (com.jaxperro.research-nightly; self-commits ledger + lean rows, informed set, surge/oracle/lag grades, virtual book, meta snapshot). All launchd agents removable with launchctl unload ~/Library/LaunchAgents/<label>.plist.

Ops quick-reference

• Follow-set change: edit live/copybot.paper.json → ./live/deploy_bot.sh; mirror config.live.example.json (nothing auto-writes it) + backtest.json.
• Tape now: python3 recorder/sync_tape.py (launchd does it every 15 min); box-side fold health: flyctl logs -a wwf-recorder (grep [fold]).
• State surgery: stop the machine, watch heartbeats actually CEASE (gotcha 15c — and the boot-id guard now makes a zombie writer yield), pull → edit → push → start → verify the first heartbeat.
• Code deploy: push + flyctl apps restart <app> (boots clone main, clone-guard verifies). Image changes: flyctl deploy --remote-only -c <toml> --ha=false. Never two machines per app.
• The bots commit their own state — always git pull --rebase --autostash before pushing from a session.
• Read next: README.md (architecture + gotchas 1-18) · FINDINGS.md (research story) · archive/value/PLAN.md (the refutation) · HANDOFF_ARCHIVE.md (history).