mirror of
https://github.com/jaxperro/winning-wallet-finder.git
synced 2026-07-27 15:57:47 +00:00
jaxperro
3d0bc7f001
live/: operationalizes the LBS/Yale "skilled ~3%" result against the live data-api. Enumerate recent liquid markets -> top traders -> candidate pool; cache every wallet's resolved bets once in DuckDB (~26k wallets / 12.5M bets, keyed by per-bet resolution time so any cutoff re-scores in seconds); 5-gate skill funnel (n>=15, z>0, BH-FDR, split-half OOS, MM/bot cap); dashboard + daily refresh. Key finding: copying the high-win-rate "favorite-rider" cohort looks +23.6% in-sample but loses -7.4% once selected on pre-June-1 data only (99% -> 68% win rate) — selection bias, reproducing the paper's "lucky winners revert" result on live data. Win rate != edge, again. wide/: bulk subgraph->DuckDB scanner (survivorship-bias-free over all wallets), but the public subgraph is frozen at Jan 2026 -> historical tool only. Large local data (*.duckdb, candidates.json, *_scored.json, history/) gitignored. README + FINDINGS updated with the current logic and the clean result. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
1286 lines
27 KiB
JSON
1286 lines
27 KiB
JSON
[
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{
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"wallet": "0x5f390e4b7d6f06d6756a6c92afdbf7b3176aa78c",
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"name": "Thewinwin",
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{
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{
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{
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