mirror of
https://github.com/jaxperro/winning-wallet-finder.git
synced 2026-07-27 15:57:47 +00:00
jaxperro
3d0bc7f001
live/: operationalizes the LBS/Yale "skilled ~3%" result against the live data-api. Enumerate recent liquid markets -> top traders -> candidate pool; cache every wallet's resolved bets once in DuckDB (~26k wallets / 12.5M bets, keyed by per-bet resolution time so any cutoff re-scores in seconds); 5-gate skill funnel (n>=15, z>0, BH-FDR, split-half OOS, MM/bot cap); dashboard + daily refresh. Key finding: copying the high-win-rate "favorite-rider" cohort looks +23.6% in-sample but loses -7.4% once selected on pre-June-1 data only (99% -> 68% win rate) — selection bias, reproducing the paper's "lucky winners revert" result on live data. Win rate != edge, again. wide/: bulk subgraph->DuckDB scanner (survivorship-bias-free over all wallets), but the public subgraph is frozen at Jan 2026 -> historical tool only. Large local data (*.duckdb, candidates.json, *_scored.json, history/) gitignored. README + FINDINGS updated with the current logic and the clean result. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
36 lines
597 B
Plaintext
36 lines
597 B
Plaintext
__pycache__/
|
|
*.pyc
|
|
.DS_Store
|
|
|
|
# never commit live credentials or runtime state
|
|
config.json
|
|
copytrade_state.json
|
|
*.log
|
|
*.tmp
|
|
|
|
# generated research data (regenerable via edge_research.py / table_77.py)
|
|
edge_metrics.jsonl
|
|
edge_profitable.json
|
|
copyable_77.csv
|
|
lp_markets.csv
|
|
follow_10.json
|
|
lp_paper_state.json
|
|
|
|
# cross-venue scanner output
|
|
xarb_hits.csv
|
|
hunt.log
|
|
recv.log
|
|
watcher_state.json
|
|
huntwide.csv
|
|
oos.log
|
|
hunt.log
|
|
|
|
# live/ + wide/ — large local data + regenerable artifacts
|
|
*.duckdb
|
|
*.duckdb.wal
|
|
live/candidates.json
|
|
live/scored.json
|
|
live/*_scored.json
|
|
live/watch_prejune*.json
|
|
live/history/
|