mirror of
https://github.com/jaxperro/winning-wallet-finder.git
synced 2026-07-28 00:07:47 +00:00
jaxperro
972b32e8f0
_handle_their_buy referenced their_prev in the fresh-OPEN branch but only assigned it in the is_add branch — every new position crashed with UnboundLocalError the moment the their-bet ceiling landed 2026-07-06. The webhook/heartbeat try/except swallowed it as 'handler error', so the bot logged FOLLOW then silently placed NOTHING (last real fill 07-05 23:17; live Fly logs show FOLLOW ArbTrader ... -> heartbeat error: their_prev). This is the primary cause of 'live bot missing bets'. Fix: hoist their_prev above the if/else so both branches see the signal's prior position. Also (the user's two asks): - copybot on_wallet_activity: a QUALIFYING bet we were too slow to catch (webhook missed / bot down / fast market resolved before we polled) is now recorded as a missed bet 'too slow to follow (Nm late)' instead of silently dropped; below-floor dust stays console-only. Filter runs before the stale gate so we know if it would have qualified. - sync_floors.py rewritten: PIN each paper-bot wallet's floor to the trusted cache p80 (identical to the backtest's conv_thr), written to copybot.paper.json, wired into daily.sh + committed. Kills the boot-time data-api floor drift (fortuneking $1,498 boot vs $892 backtest) that made the live bot filter out bets the backtest kept. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Archive — strategies that didn't work
These tools were built and tested during the research in
../FINDINGS.md. They all proved to be dead ends (the market
is efficient / the metric was biased), so they're archived here for reference
rather than deleted. Each one works as written — it's the strategy that
didn't clear. They import smart_money/copytrade from the repo root, so to
run one you'd adjust the import path.
| File | What it did | Why it's here |
|---|---|---|
copytrade.py |
Paper/live copy-trade engine — mirror a watchlist's entries/exits, % -of-bankroll sizing, price guard, per-position cap, Discord alerts. | Copying entries is −EV; followed wallets win ~50%. Backtested −48%. |
backtest.py |
Replay a watchlist over a window, mark outcomes from resolution. | The tool that proved copy-trading loses. |
edge_research.py |
Scan ~2000 wallets for reliable weekly consistency (% green weeks, profit factor, Sharpe). | "Consistent" wallets were mostly young accounts (survivorship); no durable edge. |
lookback.py |
Deep-dive a wallet list over a long window, split into halves for out-of-sample reads. | Showed the "best" wallets had <90 days of history. |
table_77.py |
Aggregate a wallet set to CSV (ROI, total staked, consistency). | Supported the above; ROI inversely related to size. |
lp_screener.py |
Rank reward-eligible markets by risk-adjusted LP yield. | The high APRs were illusory — see lp_paper. |
lp_paper.py |
Paper liquidity-provision loop: simulate quoting, track net = rewards − adverse selection. | Polymarket refunds unearned reward pool; thin-book "jackpots" don't pay. |
xarb.py |
Cross-venue scanner: match the same event on Polymarket vs Kalshi, flag price gaps. | Venues priced efficiently (~1¢); both legs cost >$1 after fees. |
The keeper that came out of all this lives at the repo root: insider.py.
Later additions (2026-07-06 cleanup)
| Path | What it was | Why it's here |
|---|---|---|
hunt.py / huntwide.py / oos.py / copyback.py / watch.json |
pre-live/ research sweeps: candidate hunts, out-of-sample replays, copy-backtests |
superseded by the live/ selection layer (skill → conviction → validate_timing) |
live-research/ |
the June 2026 selection experiments: strategy.py, followability.py, pnl_basket/focused.py, backtest_june.py, clean_test.sh + their outputs |
the research is settled (see FINDINGS); the surviving ideas live on in live/ |
us-venue/ |
us_listable.py — mapped the replay stream against Polymarket US listings (95/794 matched; US settles off-chain via FCM/clearinghouse, so no wallet tracking) |
the US move was scrapped 2026-07-06: no on-chain wallets, no copyable signal |
retired-infra/ |
Railway build config (railway.json, nixpacks.toml, .railwayignore, runtime.txt), the Mac launchd runner (com.jaxperro.copybot.plist, run_copybot.sh), the GH-Actions cron (copybot.workflow.yml) |
the worker now runs on Fly.io arn (see root README); the Actions cron was throttled to uselessness; the Mac poller was replaced by the cloud worker |
local/ |
untracked logs/CSVs/state from the above experiments | kept out of git; safe to delete wholesale |
Still-live code in this directory: copytrade.py is imported by the root
copybot.py as its execution engine (sizing, risk gates, executors) — archived
as a strategy (raw copy-trading is −EV), kept as a library.