jaxperro
16d8deb878
FINDINGS: 'The tape era opens' section (sharp screen 742/742 proxy validation, Study A identity-null, Study B winner's curse, crater refill clock) + scorecard rows for the two forward-window studies + research/ in repo layout. HANDOFF: #16/#17 in the open queue, research silo + nightly launchd in snapshot/ops. README: research/ directory row. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
5.3 KiB
HANDOFF — the living state of the world
The work queue lives in GitHub Issues (migrated 2026-07-19):
gh issue list · labels = silo (copybot/recorder/pipeline/dashboard)
× type (hardening/bug/research/strategy/ops/user-todo/
pre-registered/post-mortem) · milestones = the standing rhythms (audit
backlog, Friday bench reviews, verdict gates). Commits that resolve one say
closes #N. The July-2026 narrative/evidence log is FROZEN in
HANDOFF_ARCHIVE.md — incident post-mortems, decision
rationale, the whole story. This file stays ~a page: boundary, snapshot, ops.
Issue burndown 2026-07-19 (audit → shipped)
Migrated the queue to GitHub Issues (labels/milestones; closes #N in
commits). Closed same day: #3 webhook rotated · #5 listeners start after
seed · #6 dead-code sweep (retired copytrade CLI + LiveExecutor) · #7
chain-balance gate in reconcile_exits + retry (kills the BetBoom zombie
class) · #8 rpc-down heartbeat flag · #9 memory caps (skipped recency-
bounded, settled bets >30d spool to an archive with drift-invariant
compensation — TESTED identical drift) · #10 publish-failure alarm · #11
tape ingest sftp-first (base64 fallback) · #12 reconcile_entries 5m→30m.
REOPENED #4: the redeemer's phantom-cash BOOBY TRAP is fixed + proven
(on-chain sim SUCCESS; live fails honestly), but actually redeeming needs a
Builder API Key (SDK gasless relay) the runtime bot deliberately lacks —
LOW urgency, the platform auto-redeems winners itself. auto_redeem OFF.
Open now: #1 Signal A, #2 tape research, #4 redeem builder-key, #13 Fri
bench, #14 edge verdict, #16 surge momentum (forward window OPEN), #17
oracle fair value (accumulating, nothing frozen).
Operating boundary (user, 2026-07-13 — standing)
Full autonomy on the bots; the real-money bot stays ARMED. Never
touch the private key, Discord alerts webhook ROTATED 2026-07-19 (#3 closed),
sizing/caps/deposits are the USER's call. USER DIRECTIVE 2026-07-16: the
live bot mirrors the paper test EXACTLY (one deliberate exception:
min_order_usd $1 = venue reality). If something looks genuinely dangerous,
DISARM (flyctl secrets unset LIVE_CONFIRM -a wwf-copybot-live) rather than
push through.
Snapshot (2026-07-19)
- wwf-copybot-live (REAL, ARMED): ~$59 equity ($66.42 contributed,
realized −$16.94 lifetime — day-one incident + honest recognitions),
6-wallet Set E rev 4, 4% of working equity/bet, alarm-free after the
07-19 reconcile. wwf-copybot (paper $1k): same set, FAK-parity fills.
Both on the audit-hardened build (locks, chain-gated sweep, boot-id
single-writer guard, TLS'd user-ws — HANDOFF_ARCHIVE rev 16). 2026-07-20:
FAK no-match OPENs get one re-quote retry on both bots, PER-NICHE waits
from measured crater-refill times (crypto 4s / esports 10s / sports+slow
25s — research/params/requote_timing.json;
fak_retry_niche_soverride,fak_retry_sfallback+kill-switch; second rejection tags "twice"). - wwf-recorder: the FULL firehose (trades + order matches + comments
- crypto ticks, ~8M events/day, dual-socket ~99.9% capture, 25GB volume,
NOTHING deleted until the Mac verifiably ingests it) → nightly →
live/rtds.duckdb(trades + aux). Current-era ground truth for research.
- crypto ticks, ~8M events/day, dual-socket ~99.9% capture, 25GB volume,
NOTHING deleted until the Mac verifiably ingests it) → nightly →
- VALUE experiment: CLOSED 2026-07-19 — sub-2¢ hypothesis refuted (1W/993L, 0.075x); post-mortem in value/PLAN.md; app destroyed.
- research/ (NEW 2026-07-20, SILO — never touches the bots): tape-era
edge factory. Sharp screen (
live/tape_sharps.py, resolution proxy chain-validated 742/742, 25 copyable candidates); execution sim fitted on our own 29 labeled attempts (−2¢/fill optimism bias, thresholds sit 2× above it); Study A surge momentum #16 (identity NULL result — controls match the informed set) and Study B oracle fair value #17 (86% craters, winner's-curse inversion). Verdicts ONLY from research/forward_ledger.jsonl. - Verdicts pending: edge/size-up (#14, ~end of July, pre-registered) · bench review Friday (#13: five new sharps + AIcAIc's prove-it week — cross-read the tape screen's candidates in live/tape_sharps.json) · #16/#17 forward thresholds (in their issues).
- Dashboards: jaxperro.com/{trading,live,value} · daily pipeline on the Mac
at 08:00 (launchd, lockfile) — floors, bench forward table, edge row,
tape ingest, Discord digest · research nightly at 09:15
(com.jaxperro.research-nightly → research/nightly.sh, self-commits the
forward ledger; remove with
launchctl unload).
Ops quick-reference
- Follow-set change: edit live/copybot.paper.json →
./live/deploy_bot.sh; mirror config.live.example.json (nothing auto-writes it) + backtest.json. - State surgery: stop the machine, watch heartbeats actually CEASE (gotcha 15c — and the boot-id guard now makes a zombie writer yield), pull → edit → push → start → verify the first heartbeat.
- Code deploy: push +
flyctl apps restart <app>(boots clone main, clone-guard verifies). Image changes:flyctl deploy --remote-only -c <toml> --ha=false. Never two machines per app. - The bots commit their own state — always
git pull --rebase --autostashbefore pushing from a session. - Read next: README.md (architecture + gotchas 1-18) · FINDINGS.md (research story) · value/PLAN.md (the refutation) · HANDOFF_ARCHIVE.md (history).