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"0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "No", "title": "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on July 21?", "their_price": 0.915, "my_price": 0.9, "slippage_pct": -0.0164, "lag_s": 52.8, "shares": 69.73, "cost": 62.75, "fee": 0.19, "opened": 1784103470, "status": "closed", "exit_price": 0.9127, "pnl": 0.69, "settled": 1784103529, "sold_shares": 69.72, "sold_proceeds": 63.63 }, { "token": "16686602356235900511267666457287992561973903059220978509691578764880532993490", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "No", "title": "Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?", "their_price": 0.95, "my_price": 0.94, "slippage_pct": -0.0105, "lag_s": 0.7, "shares": 53.75, "cost": 50.53, "fee": 0.09, "opened": 1784100418, "status": "open", "exit_price": null, "pnl": null, "settled": null, "sold_shares": 53.19, "sold_proceeds": 49.36, "end_ts": 1798761600 }, { "token": 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"token": "114408446604886353206911847633106829807018038464913763376714523293436793199652", "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "name": "gkmgkldfmg", "outcome": "LGD Gaming", "title": "Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner", "their_price": 0.7282, "my_price": 0.74, "slippage_pct": 0.0163, "lag_s": 4.5, "shares": 131.07, "cost": 96.99, "fee": 0.76, "opened": 1784052486, "status": "closed", "exit_price": 0.5924, "pnl": -20.09, "settled": 1784054791, "sold_shares": 131.07, "sold_proceeds": 77.65 }, { "token": "66043823927578785385332294647462770708290770399339210264516767845856140852007", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "outcome": "No", "title": "Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?", "their_price": 0.351, "my_price": 0.356, "slippage_pct": 0.0142, "lag_s": 0.9, "shares": 57.34, "cost": 20.41, "fee": 0.39, "opened": 1783996757, "status": "lost", "exit_price": 0.0, "pnl": -20.8, "settled": 1784053019 }, { "token": "74666452124906997243440599268041315324945968051973641396724746828966017436262", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "No", "title": "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on July 14?", "their_price": 0.762, "my_price": 0.769, "slippage_pct": 0.0092, "lag_s": 3.7, "shares": 60.15, "cost": 46.26, "fee": 0.32, "opened": 1784037859, "status": "closed", "exit_price": 0.0595, "pnl": -43.0, "settled": 1784043320, "sold_shares": 60.15, "sold_proceeds": 3.58 } ], "missed": [ { "ts": 1784750680, "wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb", "token": "110230164960434404310059385575944076505582891264305624307112518287452413536393", "cond": "0x1d15ca70c93da7338e6134144dd19a41a8120f8a1ad1bca067478cdbf6d5b18a", "title": "LoL: Myth Esports vs Dynasty - Game 1 Winner", "outcome": "Myth Esports", "price": 0.45, "stake": 101.5, "reason": "order rejected twice (re-quote retry): no orders 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"title": "Tuyo FDV above $500M one day after launch?", "outcome": "No", "price": 0.7499, "stake": 35.36, "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)", "status": "open", "pnl": null, "settled": null, "name": "0xbadaf319" }, { "ts": 1784823420, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "44360920780922767656954735357129256432039074408110623509391936414714437499560", "cond": "0x09d587f63d04643fb9ea6247f58e3dd5b436e23e0d3a3fe643d6936424561e78", "title": "Will Justin Bieber's monthly listeners figure hit 140m by August 31?", "outcome": "No", "price": 0.8799, "stake": 34.75, "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)", "status": "open", "pnl": null, "settled": null, "name": "0xbadaf319" }, { "ts": 1784823419, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "8333078091351388621146592798724535139068755779946609679053201076909843903284", "cond": "0x71c12ea3c50fdee199b076a107eae1e6969c133d9ec3454354603b4ab9e07aec", "title": 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(GOOGL) hit (LOW) $330 in July?", "outcome": "Yes", "price": 0.06, "stake": 67.09, "reason": "thin book ($2 within 5c < $50)", "status": "sold", "pnl": 1037.62, "settled": 1784814260, "name": "0xbadaf319", "exit_price": 0.99 }, { "ts": 1784696451, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "token": "68642938852444405618524357112499284175503313921723452625127267630411120480355", "cond": "0x3143454e474c199ec69abacc2a962885b1b82f9201837624ab0883be9e15436d", "title": "Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?", "outcome": "No", "price": 0.64, "stake": 110.32, "reason": "price moved 0.59\u21920.64", "status": "won", "pnl": 60.86, "settled": 1784802647, "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "exit_checked": true }, { "ts": 1784802577, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "token": "28239418772633645184924651434956000849078365566842629564562475378531350731731", "cond": "0xac02cbb049e46d6a3627c0fdf52fa554982a9025d45968207b362acb6ca4b830", "title": "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?", "outcome": "No", "price": 0.92, "stake": 116.57, "reason": "no ask side on the book at copy time", "status": "open", "pnl": null, "settled": null, "name": "BikesAreTheBikes" }, { "ts": 1784755189, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "token": "6942521039548952262803452715536366269632833663841807575802631974514414220741", "cond": "0x1121a02fc780ddeb79cf91cdf2fea0a7dc2a8eb91a8643e86a4a415ab519ab90", "title": "Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?", "outcome": "No", "price": 0.16, "stake": 116.3, "reason": "thin book ($8 within 5c < $50)", "status": "lost", "pnl": -119.23, "settled": 1784772298, "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "exit_checked": true }, { "ts": 1783942543, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "25252139719387305389090759227041579550456702736511482208905350724277919018200", "cond": "0x1121a02fc780ddeb79cf91cdf2fea0a7dc2a8eb91a8643e86a4a415ab519ab90", "title": "Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "price": 0.28, "stake": 91.41, "reason": "book unreliable (spread 0.16 > 0.08)", "status": "sold", "pnl": 240.02, "settled": 1784772296, "name": "0xbadaf319", "exit_checked": true, "exit_price": 1.0206 }, { "ts": 1784657983, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "83432464582900021768828185200260903111076458489414209503967480044416221851661", "cond": "0xcef977a42d757016fc76c46cf4de3fd65c164ef8af0e6daf62a166058f9f621b", "title": "Will Google (GOOGL) Q2 capital expenditures be above $40B?", "outcome": "Yes", "price": 0.9399, "stake": 38.0, "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)", "status": "won", "pnl": 2.36, "settled": 1784758713, "name": "0xbadaf319", "exit_checked": true }, { "ts": 1783614355, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "89242338311934607563982674007060874462410613449265345423154631111798741937421", "cond": "0xc13c12dd0b8c4a29dedc8f12b2976628fa57e4a8b27bbcc522b82008bb549e02", "title": "Will Google (GOOGL) Q2 YouTube ads revenue be above $11.2B?", "outcome": "No", "price": 0.8399, "stake": 52.73, "reason": "followed but not placed \u2014 silent exit at copy time (thin/no-ask book most likely; both silent paths instrumented 2026-07-09)", "status": "sold", "pnl": -10.36, "settled": 1784758578, "name": "0xbadaf319", "exit_checked": true, "exit_price": 0.6853 }, { "ts": 1784746881, "wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb", "token": "101073632313407449841258966324566339609029406016329643951331988915036734803060", "cond": "0xd51ea730858a341990e878b08c665d0361dfec8a6f29d41b0c598f7c5a27561c", "title": "Set 1 Winner: Gonzalez vs Valdez", "outcome": "Gonzalez", "price": 0.48, "stake": 116.3, "reason": "order rejected twice (re-quote retry): no orders found to match with FAK order (paper model: best a", "status": "refund", "pnl": 3.03, "settled": 1784756659, "name": "Kruto2027", "exit_checked": true }, { "ts": 1784275928, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "15456330829547795037828293282236765253933989530349029925038235552652310014831", "cond": "0x240c2424f9e2de98676f8a2dce520b2dfee499b68194ac5db0537be851f56989", "title": "Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $90B by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "price": 0.28, "stake": 47.29, "reason": "book unreliable (spread 0.64 > 0.08)", "status": "won", "pnl": 120.58, "settled": 1784756458, "name": "0xbadaf319", "exit_checked": true }, { "ts": 1784754810, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "81905629695376179467642152439122205490366546600283546015907818703618943938229", "cond": "0x784aad9ba3f0aa5f8c2e6c4dc9314d8899cd147d6b289e6eb289e66a5b569082", "title": "Will Elon Musk tweet \"Hyperliquid\" by August 31, 2026?", "outcome": "No", "price": 0.004, "stake": 65.95, "reason": "thin book ($9 within 5c < $50)", "status": "open", "pnl": null, "settled": null, "name": "0xbadaf319" }, { "ts": 1784737932, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "101809971081124775410756971833962290310584447326615818129608807839263253483036", "cond": "0x7665295c0d116c9df0dccbbf10148a37f39093a7b1427b2f46358f6ec31b6cd3", "title": "Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $205 on July 22?", "outcome": "Yes", "price": 0.94, "stake": 11.49, "reason": "order rejected twice (re-quote retry): no orders found to match with FAK order (paper model: best a", "status": "won", "pnl": 0.71, "settled": 1784753351, "name": "0xbadaf319", "exit_checked": true }, { "ts": 1784507597, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "78980297018571400404799403103137601328646521882772163061763690804240957815229", "cond": "0xcda1cbf4da6814c6c842870769e5af7a27e87572ee043ffbaa68a2f7fab7d323", "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $140 Week of July 20 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "price": 0.4074, "stake": 106.32, "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)", "status": "sold", "pnl": 64.43, "settled": 1784750985, "name": "0xbadaf319", "exit_checked": true, "exit_price": 0.6682 }, { "ts": 1784507597, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "28798051369308638598820548419525548679775617348292003491362631387640436001598", "cond": "0xcda1cbf4da6814c6c842870769e5af7a27e87572ee043ffbaa68a2f7fab7d323", "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. 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"exit_price": 0.69 }, { "ts": 1784128795, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "token": "36572361863292743525172722296256449344593421343195350786366455281513675169221", "cond": "0xd2a97dd956e70c9c4abda30d2864588ece0c7213013eb3fa664b88509ff829b1", "title": "Will \"The Odyssey\" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 115m?", "outcome": "No", "price": 0.44, "stake": 99.83, "reason": "book unreliable (spread 0.09 > 0.08)", "status": "lost", "pnl": -101.51, "settled": 1784649073, "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "exit_checked": true }, { "ts": 1784148369, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "97790474719190241406489821993233180311618193540151039410585653304993937141574", "cond": "0xb2af625fa98691e234f918fb36e5063ca14d436d5d7b1a1ad299bbb1890694a3", "title": "Will Argentina win the World Cup?", "outcome": "No", "price": 0.716, "stake": 64.21, "reason": "book unreliable (spread 0.14 > 0.08)", "status": "sold", "pnl": 16.45, "settled": 1784649073, "name": "0xbadaf319", "exit_checked": true, "exit_price": 0.908 }, { "ts": 1784597503, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "58462461700429243354293772965834869157205755175569336823865220371784986170846", "cond": "0x5704802f1d0ebddb43aea7ab7616c5708487925e6bb2827d6f873d73ee7e0c47", "title": "Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "price": 0.01, "stake": 100.0, "reason": "order rejected twice (re-quote retry): no orders found to match with FAK order (paper model: best a", "status": "sold", "pnl": 4822.03, "settled": 1784649009, "name": "0xbadaf319", "exit_price": 0.5 }, { "ts": 1784626586, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "54923619943837902531413944505673826869865789371722858311579457498438152585454", "cond": "0x3f13595c81d4894015e99014f2562cc6edadfa1156b8849e9ebdf379149cb878", "title": "Will Aurelien Tchouameni join Bayern Munich?", "outcome": "No", "price": 0.875, "stake": 27.93, "reason": "order rejected twice (re-quote retry): no orders found to match with FAK order (paper model: best a", "status": "sold", "pnl": 1.95, "settled": 1784649009, "name": "0xbadaf319", "exit_price": 0.9412 }, { "ts": 1784547091, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "109075623115035500221385426519923794314139178452765641614675281069970878340106", "cond": "0xbcd6e99663f8b2056c91b7a766e084d20cde5bcfd54a97432596633921c02443", "title": "US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21?", "outcome": "No", "price": 0.59, "stake": 43.58, "reason": "order rejected: no orders found to match with FAK order (paper model: best a", "status": "sold", "pnl": 8.99, "settled": 1784649008, "name": "0xbadaf319", "exit_price": 0.725 }, { "ts": 1784628735, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "token": "31798323952461961650983638405389053740930972138111089234409584277872747279143", "cond": 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"pnl": null, "settled": null, "name": "BikesAreTheBikes" }, { "ts": 1784572639, "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "token": "87122687121608029703081699232336906033160920614329826898705893750616809914369", "cond": "0x075228a9709cdbea4f2ecf8286b1e70e27e18a4e07cc499ccb1c1ea7bdb0bbba", "title": "SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 20?", "outcome": "Up", "price": 0.69, "stake": 44.8, "reason": "order rejected: no orders found to match with FAK order (paper model: best a", "status": "sold", "pnl": -22.29, "settled": 1784575514, "name": "1kto1m", "exit_price": 0.36 }, { "ts": 1784573567, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "83778159848246307298177835560751845581203660912608603239968031176372923069932", "cond": "0xf649be9e9c5ce3df0834e80690ee19f9696db9ee7c4b742b06cd3a84167c8a3d", "title": "Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $8.5B by July 31?", "outcome": "No", "price": 0.75, "stake": 37.5, "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)", 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SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "price": 0.824, "stake": 65.29, "reason": "thin book ($4 within 5c < $50)", "status": "open", "pnl": null, "settled": null, "name": "0xbadaf319" }, { "ts": 1784546090, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "99938107423318996756322333138555738106297484333668883121178163046396546977526", "cond": "0xe3c09d18eefd24731660e6509eee5824ebcbba53f33515b2910b56bf059b3734", "title": "Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $166 Week of July 20 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "price": 0.76, "stake": 10.91, "reason": "order rejected: no orders found to match with FAK order (paper model: best a", "status": "sold", "pnl": 0.97, "settled": 1784555782, "name": "0xbadaf319", "exit_price": 0.8369 }, { "ts": 1784506363, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "27385644035915002110547363484247121532744022000859958113912667466557544439681", "cond": 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