#!/usr/bin/env python3 """Nightly chain-truth grading of the maker-lean harness (wwf-leanbot). Pulls /data/lean_state.json + lean_attempts.jsonl + lean_settles.jsonl off the box (read-only), re-grades every settle with CTF payout vectors, appends to research/lean_paper_ledger.jsonl (keyed asset+ts, idempotent), and prints the pre-registered readouts for #26: paper-leg EV/fill WITH the shared concentration guards (guards.py โ€” ex-best-day, ex-top5, top-event share; a headline PASS that fails them is CONCENTRATED and does not graduate), plus the OBSERVATIONAL kill-switch โ€” the median ask premium over the lean-side print (>= 8c over 3 days = the tape's entry was a mirage, no paper sample needed).""" import json import os import shutil import statistics as st import subprocess import sys HERE = os.path.dirname(os.path.abspath(__file__)) LEDGER = os.path.join(HERE, "lean_paper_ledger.jsonl") STATE_PULL = os.path.join(HERE, ".lean_state.pull.json") ATT_PULL = os.path.join(HERE, ".lean_attempts.pull.jsonl") SET_PULL = os.path.join(HERE, ".lean_settles.pull.jsonl") FLYCTL = shutil.which("flyctl") or "/opt/homebrew/bin/flyctl" def sftp(remote, local): subprocess.run([FLYCTL, "ssh", "sftp", "get", remote, local + ".new", "-a", "wwf-leanbot"], capture_output=True, timeout=600, stdin=subprocess.DEVNULL) if os.path.exists(local + ".new") and os.path.getsize(local + ".new") > 0: os.replace(local + ".new", local) return True try: os.remove(local + ".new") except FileNotFoundError: pass return False def main(): ok = sftp("/data/lean_state.json", STATE_PULL) sftp("/data/lean_attempts.jsonl", ATT_PULL) sftp("/data/lean_settles.jsonl", SET_PULL) if not ok: print("[grade_lean] box unreachable or no state yet โ€” skip") return 0 stt = json.load(open(STATE_PULL)) sys.path.insert(0, os.path.join(HERE, "..", "live")) import payouts have = set() ledger_rows = 0 try: for ln in open(LEDGER): try: d = json.loads(ln) have.add((d["asset"], d["ts"])) ledger_rows += 1 except Exception: pass except FileNotFoundError: pass settled = stt.get("settled", []) if os.path.exists(SET_PULL): # durable log beats trimmed state seen = {(s["asset"], s["ts"]) for s in settled} for ln in open(SET_PULL): try: s = json.loads(ln) if (s["asset"], s["ts"]) not in seen: settled.append(s) except Exception: pass new = [s for s in settled if (s["asset"], s["ts"]) not in have] if new: payouts.ensure(sorted({s["cond"] for s in new if s.get("cond")})) graded = flips = 0 with open(LEDGER, "a") as fh: for s in new: t = payouts.truth(s.get("cond"), s.get("asset")) \ if s.get("cond") else None pay = s["payout"] if t is None else t pnl = round(s["shares"] * pay - s["cost"] - s["fee"], 2) if t is not None and abs(t - s["payout"]) > 1e-9: flips += 1 fh.write(json.dumps({**s, "chain_payout": pay, "chain_pnl": pnl, "flip": t is not None and abs(t - s["payout"]) > 1e-9}) + "\n") graded += 1 import guards led = [] try: for ln in open(LEDGER): try: led.append(json.loads(ln)) except Exception: pass except FileNotFoundError: pass # observational kill-switch: median premium across ALL attempts with a # visible ask (fills, premium-skips, craters alike) prem = [] try: for ln in open(ATT_PULL): try: a = json.loads(ln) if a.get("premium") is not None: prem.append(a["premium"]) except Exception: pass except FileNotFoundError: pass c = stt.get("counters", {}) cuts = guards.cuts(led) print(f"[grade_lean] +{graded} settles ({flips} flips) ยท " f"lifetime cross {c.get('crossings')} att {c.get('attempts')} " f"fill {c.get('fills')} prem-skip {c.get('premium_skips')}") print("[grade_lean] " + guards.line("PAPER LEG", cuts, pass_ev=2.0)) if prem: prem.sort() print(f"[grade_lean] OBSERVATIONAL: median ask premium " f"{st.median(prem)*100:+.1f}c over {len(prem)} attempts " f"(kill-switch: >= +8c across 3 days)") print("[grade_lean] verdict binds to the Study C Stage-2 (#26) pre-registration") return 0 if __name__ == "__main__": sys.exit(main())