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Author SHA1 Message Date
copybot[bot] ad03bcc73b copybot: live paper feed [skip ci] 2026-07-27 15:39:05 +00:00
copybot[bot] 611d83a08a copybot: live paper feed [skip ci] 2026-07-27 15:36:42 +00:00
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jaxperro 48b51896ae nightly: stale-lock takeover via recorded PID; reconcile: wait out the tape-sync write lock 
A killed nightly (pause/crash/reboot) left .nightly.lock.d behind — the
EXIT trap never fires on SIGKILL — and EVERY later run then skipped
silently (caught 2026-07-27: today's run exited in <1s). Lock now
records its PID and a run whose owner is gone takes it over.
Reconcile hit the 15-min tape-sync agent's single-writer lock and died;
now waits it out (20x30s).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-27 11:28:01 -04:00
jaxperro dbfc77bfe3 live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci] 2026-07-27 11:26:40 -04:00
jaxperro 7e579aca98 sync_tape: batch acks into one ssh call + make ack failures non-fatal 
Per-file 'flyctl ssh console' acks ride WireGuard; travel networks throttle
it past the 120s timeout, and the raised TimeoutExpired killed whole
backlog runs mid-flight (52/64 files, twice). The delete invariant is
one-directional — the box may delete ONLY what the Mac acked — so a
MISSING ack is always safe. Batch at end, best-effort, log and continue.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 2026-07-27 11:00:52 -04:00
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28 changed files with 6135 additions and 6423 deletions
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copybot_fills.jsonl
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@@ -1002,3 +1002,13 @@
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copybot_fills.live.jsonl
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copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
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copybot_missed_archive.jsonl
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View File
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copybot_missed_archive.live.jsonl
+6
View File
@@ -67,3 +67,9 @@
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copybot_rejects.jsonl
+104
View File
@@ -260,3 +260,107 @@
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copybot_rejects.live.jsonl
+103
View File
@@ -255,3 +255,106 @@
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{"ts": 1785147082.3, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "91914900670334199544685156005919791302625886268111180119284211542799378333905", "cond": "0xd56d561c80fe5cc76b483d654c60f78401522b6c011e7f53eba157b8a27282d4", "usd": 531.49, "price": 0.83, "reason": "$531 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group", "mode": "live"}
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{"ts": 1785147328.2, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "97295656101998898580206897902568143074088191062355235431234344721344276341985", "cond": "0xde9ebb2f290bc03104ef13f869ddbf9d78a1f9391f6335455a03b1baea5fcf01", "usd": 55.67, "price": 0.77, "reason": "$56 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage", "mode": "live"}
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{"ts": 1785150368.3, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "63297930528355372816285987544136673809759952805584090430682359945835692023069", "cond": "0x26b4eb321db097c22f0b6e13ae955fe9ddd775a52b1f9823a74a2192b439b00d", "usd": 0.18, "price": 0.1500000850003315, "reason": "$0 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend", "mode": "live"}
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{"ts": 1785153785.7, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "63297930528355372816285987544136673809759952805584090430682359945835692023069", "cond": "0x26b4eb321db097c22f0b6e13ae955fe9ddd775a52b1f9823a74a2192b439b00d", "usd": 1.51, "price": 0.15, "reason": "$2 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend", "mode": "live"}
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{"ts": 1785154234.2, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "46197305097077039931852087458892006179625069063196195462934751482150561013302", "cond": "0xbb8433f070eea2b4b6f2a71a8e4f4dcf9b82d58bf170554639fa7bf9786d16be", "usd": 5.38, "price": 0.3500000065000006, "reason": "$5 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group", "mode": "live"}
{"ts": 1785154400.8, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "44947152591637181972300049650785829928165871645008039071331001566404599378498", "cond": "0x26df9caa9bf1d7d5a3454ba68aebc046a48e25b65e1c70c972268c20fa7c8ec2", "usd": 8.0, "price": 0.8, "reason": "$8 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: Solary vs Ici Japon Corp. Esport (BO1) - LFL Regular Season", "mode": "live"}
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{"ts": 1785156247.8, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "46197305097077039931852087458892006179625069063196195462934751482150561013302", "cond": "0xbb8433f070eea2b4b6f2a71a8e4f4dcf9b82d58bf170554639fa7bf9786d16be", "usd": 53.85, "price": 0.35, "reason": "$54 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group", "mode": "live"}
{"ts": 1785156733.8, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "46197305097077039931852087458892006179625069063196195462934751482150561013302", "cond": "0xbb8433f070eea2b4b6f2a71a8e4f4dcf9b82d58bf170554639fa7bf9786d16be", "usd": 5.6, "price": 0.35, "reason": "$6 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group", "mode": "live"}
{"ts": 1785156774.6, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "46197305097077039931852087458892006179625069063196195462934751482150561013302", "cond": "0xbb8433f070eea2b4b6f2a71a8e4f4dcf9b82d58bf170554639fa7bf9786d16be", "usd": 4.55, "price": 0.35, "reason": "$5 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group", "mode": "live"}
{"ts": 1785158056.4, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "63297930528355372816285987544136673809759952805584090430682359945835692023069", "cond": "0x26b4eb321db097c22f0b6e13ae955fe9ddd775a52b1f9823a74a2192b439b00d", "usd": 6.72, "price": 0.15, "reason": "$7 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend", "mode": "live"}
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{"ts": 1785159266.1, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "5237194442750047999503687400046473418465218819908911058835123625288699485100", "cond": "0x4152ed46395e968a55b0e5f0ea4bd4810cbb071617a56e6efc14be118af67a29", "usd": 1.0, "price": 0.27, "reason": "$1 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $150 Week of July 27 2026?", "mode": "live"}
{"ts": 1785160837.2, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "46197305097077039931852087458892006179625069063196195462934751482150561013302", "cond": "0xbb8433f070eea2b4b6f2a71a8e4f4dcf9b82d58bf170554639fa7bf9786d16be", "usd": 59.23, "price": 0.35, "reason": "$59 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group", "mode": "live"}
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{"ts": 1785161491.6, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "63297930528355372816285987544136673809759952805584090430682359945835692023069", "cond": "0x26b4eb321db097c22f0b6e13ae955fe9ddd775a52b1f9823a74a2192b439b00d", "usd": 0.18, "price": 0.150000085, "reason": "$0 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend", "mode": "live"}
{"ts": 1785161541.1, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "19050446868606330110257141866435888519760922198718829523378847853785994577025", "cond": "0x602e2c06cf410229a3ed68d559e4de82f7dbece100c8f83243474a13381e50d0", "usd": 3.0, "price": 0.289999947799992, "reason": "$3 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Ethereum reach $2,100 July 27-August 2?", "mode": "live"}
{"ts": 1785161552.7, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "16752251644267461444235583231570554371387741656475872991426237234309301489773", "cond": "0x4d5cd88efcaddae1f7be9c99bee06d706e12f57450e1a9c82a8f63cea43030d4", "usd": 3.5, "price": 0.35, "reason": "$4 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 July 27-August 2?", "mode": "live"}
{"ts": 1785161552.7, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "7491639865773312651162611231915859080277110557280821115504824004162903837724", "cond": "0xb34d2de85aa7fd79f50d8ee4f2b29a78ba2fbac9ac8abac30ebed8361e835cc5", "usd": 1.5, "price": 0.15, "reason": "$2 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Ethereum reach $2,700 July 27-August 2?", "mode": "live"}
{"ts": 1785161554.7, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "22443000013008695849001321157933615018020395010189425825145688630074959965039", "cond": "0xf48579a4cd4829fc9c84d4a1f6ff5383042641fd5a2c5ace97c645e8e841c33d", "usd": 1.6, "price": 0.16, "reason": "$2 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 July 27-August 2?", "mode": "live"}
{"ts": 1785161557.4, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "32035695540604383677697426081929017917869802059916751272165612744194024487500", "cond": "0x477c3d852bd079fa30af94c3aa28f9cfb7f1f9a842e2a17c299f27a0e33172a1", "usd": 1.6, "price": 0.16, "reason": "$2 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Ethereum reach $2,600 July 27-August 2?", "mode": "live"}
{"ts": 1785161557.7, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "19050446868606330110257141866435888519760922198718829523378847853785994577025", "cond": "0x602e2c06cf410229a3ed68d559e4de82f7dbece100c8f83243474a13381e50d0", "usd": 3.9, "price": 0.3185452345784045, "reason": "$4 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Ethereum reach $2,100 July 27-August 2?", "mode": "live"}
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{"ts": 1785161608.9, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "40955817596312612873601437486631538567006319109100482549753389482051422191329", "cond": "0x720b90af0032367a89aa4598eb3059262b3289f1f33116e429ad7c376256deb5", "usd": 26.4, "price": 0.66, "reason": "$26 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $157.50 Week of July 27 2026?", "mode": "live"}
{"ts": 1785161645.4, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "112774766992396377485489579919863607374726156472090313068282277768607356552228", "cond": "0x1b158a9177d2b8cb17144844069b93753c2578ace89a07d06fe1872c86ff8e90", "usd": 15.55, "price": 0.37, "reason": "$16 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $140 Week of July 27 2026?", "mode": "live"}
{"ts": 1785161645.4, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "65075316665858123310904205342608300814898488753088658332913116406808619343398", "cond": "0x6899f21b3a3d26c8ae9d0332c25d160fc08b9c3b834f0d8fe116d2ec87905dc9", "usd": 23.38, "price": 0.5459999899, "reason": "$23 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $130 Week of July 27 2026?", "mode": "live"}
{"ts": 1785161714.7, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "19050446868606330110257141866435888519760922198718829523378847853785994577025", "cond": "0x602e2c06cf410229a3ed68d559e4de82f7dbece100c8f83243474a13381e50d0", "usd": 3.0, "price": 0.289999947799992, "reason": "$3 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Ethereum reach $2,100 July 27-August 2?", "mode": "live"}
{"ts": 1785161728.5, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "33707674901387494882510832780063101180447157377494642117139451030535958080645", "cond": "0x73fe8a814cdcad5da7bf5f74cb6008aa0f5f40a28786effebb7d5e417a181bd0", "usd": 3.21, "price": 0.15, "reason": "$3 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $136 Week of July 27 2026?", "mode": "live"}
{"ts": 1785161728.7, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "65075316665858123310904205342608300814898488753088658332913116406808619343398", "cond": "0x6899f21b3a3d26c8ae9d0332c25d160fc08b9c3b834f0d8fe116d2ec87905dc9", "usd": 10.95, "price": 0.547, "reason": "$11 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $130 Week of July 27 2026?", "mode": "live"}
{"ts": 1785161939.9, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "109560195847127443718098720993839508458395767835235641294925271566812897320563", "cond": "0xcdf022c2b67b00eeb6325e4f2e7471cc6db10f907185b12f0a1d5f41b5f64b11", "usd": 8.8, "price": 0.88, "reason": "$9 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: Solary vs Esprit Sh\u014dnen (BO1) - LFL Regular Season", "mode": "live"}
{"ts": 1785162214.6, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "32107218395923892176344541359138433055453127027522438107667081226609076316202", "cond": "0xde6df361c22f3dd7fc4a6a0c096e3ea93fddaa5cda4001e3caa4ef81c6bf58fb", "usd": 59.58, "price": 0.979, "reason": "entry 0.98 outside [0.00,0.95]", "title": "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on July 27?", "mode": "live"}
{"ts": 1785162214.6, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "84894185529982554344915673498846308604621711134918487544121598865734260952244", "cond": "0x114d0257420ef8dc440685028e44eb7fe51b27c07e9b204c9561b0b8ba59a2f1", "usd": 1.83, "price": 0.0189999897109289, "reason": "$2 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 27?", "mode": "live"}
{"ts": 1785162221.8, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "32107218395923892176344541359138433055453127027522438107667081226609076316202", "cond": "0xde6df361c22f3dd7fc4a6a0c096e3ea93fddaa5cda4001e3caa4ef81c6bf58fb", "usd": 59.2, "price": 0.96, "reason": "entry 0.96 outside [0.00,0.95]", "title": "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on July 27?", "mode": "live"}
{"ts": 1785162221.9, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "84894185529982554344915673498846308604621711134918487544121598865734260952244", "cond": "0x114d0257420ef8dc440685028e44eb7fe51b27c07e9b204c9561b0b8ba59a2f1", "usd": 2.45, "price": 0.04, "reason": "$2 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 27?", "mode": "live"}
{"ts": 1785163024.7, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "32107218395923892176344541359138433055453127027522438107667081226609076316202", "cond": "0xde6df361c22f3dd7fc4a6a0c096e3ea93fddaa5cda4001e3caa4ef81c6bf58fb", "usd": 18.42, "price": 0.921, "reason": "$18 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on July 27?", "mode": "live"}
{"ts": 1785163025.8, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "84894185529982554344915673498846308604621711134918487544121598865734260952244", "cond": "0x114d0257420ef8dc440685028e44eb7fe51b27c07e9b204c9561b0b8ba59a2f1", "usd": 0.83, "price": 0.0682508250825083, "reason": "$1 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 27?", "mode": "live"}
{"ts": 1785163052.1, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "93995707537627801726645260340198418254638631349854995526179763067406091935408", "cond": "0x5cba4b02f88bbdbc49d8dd0c01b5b17acd8aa9f78aa937221106fc159f9bdba9", "usd": 8.89, "price": 0.64, "reason": "$9 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Galions (BO1) - LFL Regular Season", "mode": "live"}
{"ts": 1785163291.8, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "65075316665858123310904205342608300814898488753088658332913116406808619343398", "cond": "0x6899f21b3a3d26c8ae9d0332c25d160fc08b9c3b834f0d8fe116d2ec87905dc9", "usd": 4.55, "price": 0.911, "reason": "$5 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $130 Week of July 27 2026?", "mode": "live"}
{"ts": 1785163291.9, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "110290043900691610062991865878654559567856969644093283916828127103018283766724", "cond": "0x61eb75dae104f136d5946682f241c554f6282f81a4489285d134170526be41e0", "usd": 1.54, "price": 0.0599999649350627, "reason": "$2 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $132 Week of July 27 2026?", "mode": "live"}
{"ts": 1785164193.7, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "63297930528355372816285987544136673809759952805584090430682359945835692023069", "cond": "0x26b4eb321db097c22f0b6e13ae955fe9ddd775a52b1f9823a74a2192b439b00d", "usd": 1.01, "price": 0.15, "reason": "$1 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend", "mode": "live"}
{"ts": 1785166109.6, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "token": "22243280273498234987031341437063630596733850966298635604549136405175256264690", "cond": "0x1a03b791d9670be09bce3ffd281cca2a98df7be99d4daeb9f1f44226271c6937", "usd": 10.62, "price": 0.68, "reason": "$11 < conviction floor $735", "title": "LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend", "mode": "live"}
{"ts": 1785166433.4, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "23134377612753875271476799588619866547717423971821044672490624783105026726769", "cond": "0xba34d786cd7bfbd719aa77c705f27969aba84d6649dca9adb365aad8c255db7a", "usd": 13.65, "price": 0.25, "reason": "$14 < conviction floor $28", "title": "US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?", "mode": "live"}
{"ts": 1785166462.8, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "49952690042474298096697107838501147620642888076204079490031529723234270830286", "cond": "0x5e0190c0160f075a95fd5034b1d97d2245ef0c1ccb725fcbbadfc54db2ac8028", "usd": 8.6, "price": 0.849999990116278, "reason": "$9 < conviction floor $28", "title": "US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?", "mode": "live"}
{"ts": 1785166464.5, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "9778337357085497929007901423868259790092154116748585191406014066386135272948", "cond": "0x64e2986a47cc4e152b9ab5010f16d17ddc62035ff113c07544c4d05db08ff083", "usd": 1.5, "price": 0.140624928222645, "reason": "$2 < conviction floor $28", "title": "US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15?", "mode": "live"}
copybot_state.json
+1684 -1637
View File
File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff
copybot_state.live.json
+1776 -1753
View File
File diff suppressed because it is too large Load Diff
live/conviction_wallets.json
+75 -61
View File
@@ -37,9 +37,9 @@
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@@ -367,9 +367,9 @@
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@@ -401,9 +415,9 @@
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@@ -523,7 +537,7 @@
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@@ -579,7 +593,7 @@
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@@ -611,9 +625,9 @@
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@@ -747,7 +761,7 @@
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@@ -831,7 +845,7 @@
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@@ -1087,9 +1101,9 @@
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{
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@@ -1125,7 +1139,7 @@
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@@ -1273,20 +1287,6 @@
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@@ -1315,6 +1315,20 @@
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@@ -1409,9 +1423,9 @@
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@@ -1467,7 +1481,7 @@
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live/copybot_live.json
+167 -165
View File
@@ -1,23 +1,23 @@
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@@ -49,6 +49,72 @@
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@@ -67,7 +133,9 @@
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live/copybot_live_real.json
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@@ -2166,21 +2305,6 @@
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@@ -2228,21 +2352,6 @@
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@@ -2510,22 +2619,6 @@
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@@ -2966,112 +3059,16 @@
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@@ -3080,8 +3077,8 @@
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@@ -3130,8 +3127,8 @@
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@@ -3160,8 +3157,8 @@
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@@ -3170,8 +3167,8 @@
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@@ -3185,5 +3182,5 @@
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live/copybot_live_real_full.json
+153 -57
View File
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
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@@ -8,8 +8,8 @@
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@@ -58,8 +58,8 @@
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@@ -88,8 +88,8 @@
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@@ -98,8 +98,8 @@
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@@ -2822,10 +2822,151 @@
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@@ -410,7 +362,7 @@
{
"wallet": "0x4d6a054119f319f16e2acd921cf8c077788efc79",
"name": "0x4d6a0541\u2026",
"weight": 0.013,
"weight": 0.0146,
"tier": "validated",
"z": 4.23,
"z_oos": 2.29,
@@ -422,7 +374,7 @@
{
"wallet": "0xb36b3af57e480c750bcebed7be2d8afd24380cb1",
"name": "Didiaodiao",
"weight": 0.0129,
"weight": 0.0146,
"tier": "validated",
"z": 4.21,
"z_oos": 3.18,
@@ -432,21 +384,21 @@
"band_0204": 0.25
},
{
"wallet": "0x512f0604dfefa544b64be57e3a29b4f18c98e825",
"name": "0x512F0604dFeFA544B64bE57E3a29b4f18C98E825-1782305190197",
"weight": 0.0128,
"wallet": "0x111a20cb89e66593229f90fffb92fe5a765caceb",
"name": "JohnLayo",
"weight": 0.0145,
"tier": "validated",
"z": 4.19,
"z_oos": 1.64,
"n": 1180,
"win_rate": 53.7,
"avg_entry": 0.48,
"band_0204": 0.26
"z": 4.2,
"z_oos": 3.22,
"n": 1098,
"win_rate": 31.3,
"avg_entry": 0.26,
"band_0204": 0.51
},
{
"wallet": "0x8cd9439c1205da4c9ba18559cdcfe2e12278190e",
"name": "kaslas",
"weight": 0.0127,
"weight": 0.0143,
"tier": "validated",
"z": 4.13,
"z_oos": 3.14,
@@ -455,38 +407,14 @@
"avg_entry": 0.47,
"band_0204": 0.31
},
{
"wallet": "0x111a20cb89e66593229f90fffb92fe5a765caceb",
"name": "JohnLayo",
"weight": 0.0127,
"tier": "validated",
"z": 4.13,
"z_oos": 3.08,
"n": 1057,
"win_rate": 31.5,
"avg_entry": 0.26,
"band_0204": 0.51
},
{
"wallet": "0x17f0b79bae4c986b854f6be30f1fca8c484dea12",
"name": "bdmina",
"weight": 0.0123,
"tier": "validated",
"z": 4.03,
"z_oos": 2.82,
"n": 2013,
"win_rate": 44.1,
"avg_entry": 0.4,
"band_0204": 0.22
},
{
"wallet": "0x48270d81cfe598ae0379ca535a26dc41e3e9080d",
"name": "DiogoBNF566",
"weight": 0.0119,
"weight": 0.0135,
"tier": "validated",
"z": 3.89,
"z": 3.9,
"z_oos": 3.66,
"n": 2006,
"n": 2007,
"win_rate": 94.5,
"avg_entry": 0.93,
"band_0204": 0.01
@@ -494,7 +422,7 @@
{
"wallet": "0x1c7b8b9e0c9a5215d5b84553130029e5d1ae315d",
"name": "ksamlsa",
"weight": 0.0118,
"weight": 0.0133,
"tier": "validated",
"z": 3.85,
"z_oos": 3.54,
@@ -506,7 +434,7 @@
{
"wallet": "0xe574b987b793b08eb34d7d238eccc30a3d9bf4f5",
"name": "0xe574b987\u2026",
"weight": 0.0117,
"weight": 0.0132,
"tier": "validated",
"z": 3.82,
"z_oos": 2.36,
@@ -516,45 +444,33 @@
"band_0204": 0.19
},
{
"wallet": "0x91e8ec880471a69da3c74356a9ec2571d37b24f8",
"name": "Bigbang4",
"weight": 0.0113,
"wallet": "0xdb04e241eee2c21326cdce044b43b982fba8bfe1",
"name": "0xdB04e241eEe2C21326cDCE044B43b982fba8bFE1-1780908621030",
"weight": 0.0131,
"tier": "validated",
"z": 3.7,
"z_oos": 1.04,
"n": 794,
"win_rate": 35.5,
"avg_entry": 0.3,
"band_0204": 0.37
"z": 3.8,
"z_oos": 2.69,
"n": 569,
"win_rate": 28.5,
"avg_entry": 0.23,
"band_0204": 0.19
},
{
"wallet": "0x3db61e79ee7afbd4ed101a9fc497c05f679acb34",
"name": "0x3db61e79\u2026",
"weight": 0.0113,
"wallet": "0x0daff95741ef98945657a52ee4bd8e525ef217a9",
"name": "lakaroseka",
"weight": 0.013,
"tier": "validated",
"z": 3.69,
"z_oos": 3.66,
"n": 1791,
"win_rate": 60.5,
"avg_entry": 0.56,
"band_0204": 0.13
},
{
"wallet": "0x6d5922a5c641890fad61d810ce09b6c9f066b1b3",
"name": "dror-768",
"weight": 0.0113,
"tier": "validated",
"z": 3.69,
"z_oos": 1.6,
"n": 516,
"win_rate": 27.5,
"avg_entry": 0.21,
"band_0204": 0.31
"z": 3.76,
"z_oos": 2.66,
"n": 273,
"win_rate": 64.5,
"avg_entry": 0.54,
"band_0204": 0.17
},
{
"wallet": "0xdeca32428d5cf4b1c4d7266a950e20791676ddd5",
"name": "durrrrrrrr",
"weight": 0.0112,
"weight": 0.0126,
"tier": "validated",
"z": 3.65,
"z_oos": 2.45,
@@ -564,21 +480,21 @@
"band_0204": 0.02
},
{
"wallet": "0xd92f13f9c20e5739aae98032e443b13d9d823d83",
"name": "follwmee",
"weight": 0.011,
"wallet": "0x6d5922a5c641890fad61d810ce09b6c9f066b1b3",
"name": "dror-768",
"weight": 0.0121,
"tier": "validated",
"z": 3.6,
"z_oos": 1.88,
"n": 2040,
"win_rate": 48.8,
"avg_entry": 0.45,
"band_0204": 0.22
"z": 3.49,
"z_oos": 1.67,
"n": 536,
"win_rate": 26.9,
"avg_entry": 0.21,
"band_0204": 0.31
},
{
"wallet": "0xc265ab3fad6092a5a28cbb72bdef33e6eaced5ab",
"name": "0xc265ab3f\u2026",
"weight": 0.0102,
"weight": 0.0115,
"tier": "validated",
"z": 3.34,
"z_oos": 2.06,
@@ -590,7 +506,7 @@
{
"wallet": "0xe75b11fa4fa01db5f11743e5f40df6c23b8e97eb",
"name": "sleepyzs",
"weight": 0.0101,
"weight": 0.0114,
"tier": "validated",
"z": 3.3,
"z_oos": 1.46,
@@ -602,7 +518,7 @@
{
"wallet": "0x6d3c9fe9cb9a7e006c99b13bdd0451ab5059c74a",
"name": "0x6D3C9fE9CB9A7e006C99b13bDd0451aB5059C74a-1775205794013",
"weight": 0.0101,
"weight": 0.0114,
"tier": "validated",
"z": 3.3,
"z_oos": 0.22,
@@ -614,7 +530,7 @@
{
"wallet": "0x46b2f8a865a3572a435813e747e22cce0e835977",
"name": "quantssss",
"weight": 0.0101,
"weight": 0.0114,
"tier": "validated",
"z": 3.29,
"z_oos": 2.37,
@@ -626,7 +542,7 @@
{
"wallet": "0x536be02af900fe046fa708c8059c04f737a2cee3",
"name": "fill-or-fok-me",
"weight": 0.01,
"weight": 0.0113,
"tier": "validated",
"z": 3.28,
"z_oos": 2.24,
@@ -636,21 +552,21 @@
"band_0204": 0.34
},
{
"wallet": "0x97026acc2fcbfc70420f3792ba612e5abb67ca89",
"name": "SERINAITE",
"weight": 0.01,
"wallet": "0x3db61e79ee7afbd4ed101a9fc497c05f679acb34",
"name": "0x3db61e79\u2026",
"weight": 0.0113,
"tier": "validated",
"z": 3.26,
"z_oos": 2.8,
"n": 1713,
"win_rate": 37.5,
"avg_entry": 0.34,
"band_0204": 0.44
"z": 3.28,
"z_oos": 2.93,
"n": 1854,
"win_rate": 59.7,
"avg_entry": 0.56,
"band_0204": 0.13
},
{
"wallet": "0x4f7d834c2292157e8c1c34653a60dff3cd8ab3ff",
"name": "52463434",
"weight": 0.0099,
"weight": 0.0112,
"tier": "validated",
"z": 3.23,
"z_oos": 1.06,
@@ -662,7 +578,7 @@
{
"wallet": "0x9807ef11efccde6399f6e2fa410de357092192f4",
"name": "0x9807ef11\u2026",
"weight": 0.0099,
"weight": 0.0111,
"tier": "validated",
"z": 3.22,
"z_oos": 2.09,
@@ -672,33 +588,21 @@
"band_0204": 0.16
},
{
"wallet": "0x25d8c73a5ebeb6db934d8da68592ba3d4f1ca71f",
"name": "none910",
"weight": 0.0098,
"wallet": "0x52e9ddafda7ae033b1dd4553c7acdb9b3effb5cd",
"name": "muUren",
"weight": 0.0111,
"tier": "validated",
"z": 3.21,
"z_oos": 2.53,
"n": 1495,
"win_rate": 47.8,
"avg_entry": 0.45,
"band_0204": 0.09
},
{
"wallet": "0xec1e4ae315d80985ad25b2f6fe4dfc2941310d9c",
"name": "samoel97",
"weight": 0.0097,
"tier": "validated",
"z": 3.18,
"z_oos": 3.32,
"n": 544,
"win_rate": 78.1,
"avg_entry": 0.75,
"band_0204": 0.04
"z": 3.2,
"z_oos": 2.02,
"n": 2274,
"win_rate": 52.8,
"avg_entry": 0.5,
"band_0204": 0.23
},
{
"wallet": "0x90347085ff4edd5d6305eea5746d239784b0f7df",
"name": "7887",
"weight": 0.0097,
"weight": 0.0109,
"tier": "validated",
"z": 3.16,
"z_oos": 1.99,
@@ -708,33 +612,45 @@
"band_0204": 0.18
},
{
"wallet": "0x52e9ddafda7ae033b1dd4553c7acdb9b3effb5cd",
"name": "muUren",
"weight": 0.0097,
"wallet": "0x25d8c73a5ebeb6db934d8da68592ba3d4f1ca71f",
"name": "none910",
"weight": 0.0109,
"tier": "validated",
"z": 3.16,
"z_oos": 2.23,
"n": 2206,
"win_rate": 52.9,
"avg_entry": 0.5,
"band_0204": 0.22
"z": 3.15,
"z_oos": 2.4,
"n": 1502,
"win_rate": 47.5,
"avg_entry": 0.44,
"band_0204": 0.09
},
{
"wallet": "0x40cc3feb8acaab0aa7fbd5dc7e2eb5f2f8fc1be7",
"name": "Ariyeh",
"weight": 0.0093,
"wallet": "0xec1e4ae315d80985ad25b2f6fe4dfc2941310d9c",
"name": "samoel97",
"weight": 0.0107,
"tier": "validated",
"z": 3.03,
"z_oos": 3.9,
"n": 820,
"win_rate": 32.4,
"avg_entry": 0.28,
"band_0204": 0.29
"z": 3.11,
"z_oos": 3.13,
"n": 606,
"win_rate": 76.1,
"avg_entry": 0.73,
"band_0204": 0.04
},
{
"wallet": "0x97026acc2fcbfc70420f3792ba612e5abb67ca89",
"name": "SERINAITE",
"weight": 0.0103,
"tier": "validated",
"z": 2.97,
"z_oos": 2.77,
"n": 1803,
"win_rate": 36.6,
"avg_entry": 0.34,
"band_0204": 0.44
},
{
"wallet": "0x55154a54cd74db752540dcd663a30cdb5c00eb8b",
"name": "AK47ForLIFE",
"weight": 0.0089,
"weight": 0.01,
"tier": "validated",
"z": 2.89,
"z_oos": 2.74,
@@ -742,17 +658,5 @@
"win_rate": 41.5,
"avg_entry": 0.38,
"band_0204": 0.35
},
{
"wallet": "0x1d949489f736378cbde40db18c093c5cff459100",
"name": "BullishBarb",
"weight": 0.0087,
"tier": "validated",
"z": 2.83,
"z_oos": 1.31,
"n": 2107,
"win_rate": 53.4,
"avg_entry": 0.51,
"band_0204": 0.25
}
]
recorder/sync_tape.py
+23 -2
View File
@@ -132,6 +132,7 @@ def main():
return 0
have = {r[0] for r in con.execute("SELECT segment FROM ingested").fetchall()}
got = 0
pending_acks = []
for d in new:
rel, seg = d["path"], d["segment"]
dst = os.path.join(MIRROR, rel)
@@ -171,9 +172,29 @@ def main():
con.execute("COMMIT")
with open(LOCAL_MANIFEST, "a") as fh:
fh.write(json.dumps(d) + "\n")
box(f"touch {PQ}/acks/{os.path.basename(rel)}.ok")
# ACK IS DEFERRED AND NON-FATAL (2026-07-27): one ssh round-trip per
# file rides WireGuard, which travel networks throttle to the point
# of timing out — and a raised TimeoutExpired used to kill the whole
# sync mid-backlog (52 files in, 12 to go). The invariant is
# one-directional: the box may delete ONLY what the Mac acked, so a
# MISSING ack is always safe (box keeps the file; 25GB ≈ 3+ weeks).
# Batch them at the end, best-effort.
pending_acks.append(os.path.basename(rel))
got += 1
print(f"[sync] {rel}: {n} rows -> db + mirror + ack")
print(f"[sync] {rel}: {n} rows -> db + mirror (ack queued)")
# batched ack: ONE ssh round-trip for the whole run (was one per file).
# Never fatal — unacked files simply wait for a healthier network; the
# next run re-acks them (touch is idempotent, and `have` keeps the DB
# from re-ingesting).
if pending_acks:
try:
box("touch " + " ".join(f"{PQ}/acks/{a}.ok"
for a in pending_acks), timeout=180)
print(f"[sync] acked {len(pending_acks)} file(s) in one call")
except Exception as e:
print(f"[sync] ⚠ ack deferred ({type(e).__name__}) — box keeps "
f"{len(pending_acks)} file(s) until a healthier run; "
f"data already in db + mirror")
n, = con.execute("SELECT count(*) FROM trades").fetchone()
print(f"[sync] +{got}/{len(new)} files · rtds.duckdb now {n:,} trades")
return 0
research/copy_reconcile.py
+13
View File
@@ -106,7 +106,20 @@ def main():
and b.get("entry_t", 0) >= fs.get(nm2w.get(b["name"], ""), 0)]
print(f"backtest bets in the parity era with join keys "
f"(follow-since applied): {len(bets)}", flush=True)
# rtds.duckdb is single-writer and the 15-min tape-sync agent holds it in
# bursts; the daily's reconcile step used to die outright on the
# collision (2026-07-27). Wait it out — the sync finishes in seconds.
for _try in range(20):
try:
db = tape.connect()
break
except Exception as e:
if "lock" not in str(e).lower() or _try == 19:
raise
if _try == 0:
print("[reconcile] tape locked by the sync agent — waiting…",
flush=True)
time.sleep(30)
tape.build_resolved(db)
pays = fwd.payouts_for(db, [b["asset"] for b in bets])
v = bot_views()
research/nightly.sh
+10 -1
View File
@@ -22,9 +22,18 @@ POLL_S=900
# run: exit 1 + a stale lock that would have skipped every future night).
LOCK="$(pwd)/.nightly.lock.d"
if ! mkdir "$LOCK" 2>/dev/null; then
echo "$(date -u +%FT%TZ) already running — skip" >> forward.log
# STALE-LOCK GUARD (2026-07-27): a killed run (pause, crash, reboot) can
# leave the dir behind — the EXIT trap never fires on SIGKILL — and every
# later night then skips SILENTLY. Trust the recorded PID: if it is gone,
# the lock is debris, so take it over.
OWNER=$(cat "$LOCK/pid" 2>/dev/null)
if [ -n "$OWNER" ] && kill -0 "$OWNER" 2>/dev/null; then
echo "$(date -u +%FT%TZ) already running (pid $OWNER) — skip" >> forward.log
exit 0
fi
echo "$(date -u +%FT%TZ) STALE lock (pid ${OWNER:-none} gone) — taking over" >> forward.log
fi
echo $$ > "$LOCK/pid"
trap 'rmdir "$LOCK"' EXIT
tape_age() {
rtds_shadow.jsonl
+136 -637
View File
@@ -1,640 +1,3 @@
{"ts": 1784705400.98, "trade_ts": 1784705400, "lat_s": 0.98, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "side": "BUY", "size": 1200, "price": 0.01, "title": "Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 17 to July 24, ", "tx": "0x61e815859381f72d184abd62ca5abfedc34ea5146e486d71dfb64d5e9f0b7aae", "seen": false}
{"ts": 1784705409.25, "trade_ts": 1784705408, "lat_s": 1.25, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "side": "BUY", "size": 160, "price": 0.01, "title": "Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 17 to July 24, ", "tx": "0x76f6f89c8a696fae7645e744cba5355f81e7b50e7f98f9ea9f456ef6ad6478c4", "seen": false}
{"ts": 1784705409.34, "trade_ts": 1784705408, "lat_s": 1.34, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "side": "BUY", "size": 200, "price": 0.01, "title": "Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 17 to July 24, ", "tx": "0xab8c1b8a85904e79c8f25ee161eb082c8cee936b7568b6e58130559748892547", "seen": false}
{"ts": 1784705415.77, "trade_ts": 1784705415, "lat_s": 0.77, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "side": "BUY", "size": 100, "price": 0.01, "title": "Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 17 to July 24, ", "tx": "0x6c68d7cb311a98eb970082c2810db6f19d3121881a6aa69814131b8ecd0300b6", "seen": false}
{"ts": 1784705416.24, "trade_ts": 1784705415, "lat_s": 1.24, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "side": "BUY", "size": 80, "price": 0.01, "title": "Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 17 to July 24, ", "tx": "0x974499311573cc37eddd355756115ef1632197e0991f034363ddfc297ed5b9ff", "seen": false}
{"ts": 1784705419.89, "trade_ts": 1784705419, "lat_s": 0.89, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "side": "BUY", "size": 80, "price": 0.01, "title": "Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 17 to July 24, ", "tx": "0x78e6afb3ffaff6e54ed2e485de7e63fe4f41ed61ae04d4222e08b1a101632f6e", "seen": false}
{"ts": 1784705420.16, "trade_ts": 1784705419, "lat_s": 1.16, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "side": "BUY", "size": 100, "price": 0.01, "title": "Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 17 to July 24, ", "tx": "0x70fb99e758fd3bcfd93b9556fe249bc6891340c372d7d1b1e84aa96ff74a6113", "seen": false}
{"ts": 1784705424.4, "trade_ts": 1784705424, "lat_s": 0.4, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "side": "BUY", "size": 50, "price": 0.01, "title": "Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 17 to July 24, ", "tx": "0x77bc04469d9039c78cecf568aeb20f465fb5732e9cbe856e2b9bd86d818fd6ec", "seen": false}
{"ts": 1784705425.09, "trade_ts": 1784705425, "lat_s": 0.09, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "side": "BUY", "size": 521.37, "price": 0.041, "title": "Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 20", "tx": "0x292381b02d123a192eea8aee403b734b5d71cd05ac2be6306adb44ca138b8c19", "seen": false}
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rtds_shadow.live.jsonl
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