/closed-positions serves 50-row pages regardless of limit; stepping by the
requested size truncated every wallet's exit history to its most recent ~50
closes (1% coverage for hyperactive wallets) — sold-mirroring was silently
falling back to the hold-to-res ceiling almost everywhere. Now: page by
returned size, cache exits incrementally in duckdb (immutable events —
deep backfill once, a page or two per refresh; title/outcome columns for
display). Deep-exit 30d replay: $18,270 (+1727%), 259W/79L/29R/284S,
misses 253 -> 1 (mirrored exits recycle capital as fast as the signal does).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
smart_money.closed_exits() is now the shared implementation (backtest +
sharps): close time from /closed-positions, exit price reconstructed from
realized P&L. validate_timing's conv/conv30/all-time/realized tallies count
a bet the wallet sold pre-resolution at its exit price (conv_sold /
conv30_sold / all_sold fields) instead of pretending it rode to resolution.
Beyond the ~4000-row data horizon exits fall back to hold-to-res.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- get_json: catch OSError + http.client.HTTPException (RemoteDisconnected/
IncompleteRead escaped the retry loop and killed last night's validate_timing
run on a single dropped keep-alive).
- validate_timing: per-wallet retry+exclude guard so one bad wallet can't take
out the whole selection; regenerated watch_sharps.json — the first fee-aware,
resolved-only sharp list (10 copy-positive holders of 254).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The scanner measured win rate over /closed-positions only, but Polymarket
only redeems winning shares — losers sit unredeemed in /positions at
curPrice 0 and never enter closed-positions. That made win rates wildly
inflated (e.g. 90.6% vs a true 48.3%). Win rate now unions both endpoints
over a 90-day window. With the honest metric, ~no top wallet exceeds ~60%;
true rates cluster near 50%.
Also:
- backtest.py: replay a watchlist over a recent window, fill at historical
price, mark outcomes from resolution. A 7d run of 4 top wallets returned
-48%, confirming flat-size entry-copying is -EV at ~50% hit rates.
- copytrade.py: add max_position_usd cap (proportional adds could otherwise
balloon one position to the whole exposure limit) and Discord webhook
alerts on every would-be trade.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Dashboard + terminal tool that pulls the 7d/30d/all leaderboards, measures
each wallet's win rate over its most recent resolved bets, and its distinct
markets traded per week. Zero dependencies (Python 3 stdlib only).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
jaxperro