Audit of the two biggest All-Time-vs-PM divergences (oliman2, leegunner)
proved the fold-in RIGHT and PM's leaderboard wrong: live per-position
sums reproduce our numbers to the dollar (oliman2 +181,594 closed
-160,644 abandoned = ~+19k true vs leaderboard 112k; leegunner +323,707
-58,762 = ~274k true vs 347k). redeemable is exact (set on resolution
for winners AND losers); pinning misfolded a few unresolved longshots.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Three fixes from the 2026-07-08 alignment audit (bot feed vs replay,
row-by-row):
1. sold-detection no longer trusts res_t alone — for in-play markets
res_t is endDate metadata (game-DAY midnight, pre-dates the entry) so
the timestamp test never fired and every in-play sell booked as
held-to-resolution. Price is the fallback truth: a redeem prints
exactly the payout, a real sell prints a mid price (>2c off payout).
2. round trips on resolved-on-chain markets are booked, not dropped —
when the trusted cache row never qualifies (bogus forward res_t:
Chidekh 'unresolved until Jul 14' on a Jul-5 match) the bet used to
vanish; now redeem-closes book at chain truth, sell-closes mirror.
3. Set-D wallets gate on the bot's PINNED floors (copybot.paper.json),
not a recomputed p80 that drifts a few % and takes different bets.
Also: resolved display slice 60 -> 250 rows.
Cross-check: 9 settled Set-D bot bets -> 7 agree, 0 absent, 2 diffs that
are real execution gaps (bot missed the sharp's exit, rode to
resolution) — each book records what actually happened to IT.
Equity 30d: $29.1k -> $17.4k (+1636%) — the flattering artifacts are gone.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The daily freshen reset the bets + exits cursors but never pulled_entries,
so a watchlist wallet's first_buy map went up to 14 days stale and
portfolio.py silently dropped every bet on conds entered since the last
pull (`if not et: continue`) — neither resolved nor open. Kruto2027's
Jul-7 Brewers bets (visible SOLD in the live bot) and two losing bets
were absent from the backtest for exactly this. Entries re-pulled for
Set D + portfolio regenerated: Kruto 43->49 bets, both Brewers rows
booked, hidden losses folded in.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Rebuilt the live follow set from the corrected data. Dropped fortuneking
(weak copy P&L), iohihoo (negative 30d form), and Stavenson/0x4bFb-whale/
ArbTrader (no longer qualify as sharps post-truth-scoring). Added 42021,
0xbadaf319, BikesAreTheBikes. All 6 clear the 2-month copy P&L signal + the
30d conviction form + copyable lead, and are moderate-bet (fit a $1k book,
0 missed). 30d backtest: $27,799 (+2680%, 279W/75L) vs the old set's $16k.
backtest.json matched so the dashboard replays the live set.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The replay selected trusted conviction bets + sold round-trips + chain
settlement, but abandoned losers (bets held to a decided outcome, never
redeemed — /positions at curPrice 0, not in /closed-positions, not trusted
rows on operator-resolved markets) fell out entirely, reading optimistic.
resolved_unredeemed() now pulls them; window_bets folds in the in-window,
conviction-size ones at their decided outcome (loser pays 0). Same anti-
survivorship correction as the sharps table's _open_split.
Impact on the follow-set 30d backtest is ~0 ($16,255->$16,260): those 8
wallets are clean, AND abandoned-loser survivorship is an all-time
ACCUMULATION (oliman2: 1123 losers lifetime, only 2 in any 30d window), so a
30d period metric structurally can't surface much of it. The fix guarantees
no in-window loss is dropped and keeps the backtest consistent with the
all-time sharps view where survivorship actually lives. Verified the fold-in
fires (oliman2's 2 in-window conviction losers identified).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Resolved-but-unredeemed positions (bets that lost, went to $0, never
redeemed) were sitting in Open P&L, breaking the All-Time+Open=PM reconcile
and — worse — hiding real losses. _open_split now routes decided positions
(curPrice pinned 0/1) into the REALIZED total at their outcome, leaving only
genuinely in-flight positions in Open P&L. This is the project's founding
survivorship insight applied to P&L: PM /profit under-counts abandoned
losers unevenly, so where our All-Time reads lower than PM, PM is biased and
ours is honest. oliman2 $181k->$20k (walked from $161k of losers),
JuiceFarm $380k->$32k; clean wallets unchanged (ewww1 $409k, KBO30 ~PM).
Win% now counts abandoned losers too. Verified: Coteykens/imwalkinghere/KBO30
now ~PM; oliman2/JuiceFarm correctly far below their flattering PM.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
_open_pnl(w) sums cashPnl over the wallet's current positions (full paging).
Surfaces the sells-winners-holds-losers risk that the realized track record
hides: All-Time (realized) + Open P&L reconciles to PM P&L. A wallet with a
strong realized record but a large negative open book flatters live-follow
experience — now visible instead of inferred from the PM gap.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
The sharps table's P&L was reconstructed from won×entry×size and diverged
from PM /profit by up to 10x, with sign flips — four root causes found by
decomposing outliers against PM:
1. bets pull capped at 2000 rows/180d -> high-volume wallets truncated
(ewww1: 740 of 4088 positions cached -> k shown vs k real)
2. both-sides (hedged) markets: one-per-market dedup dropped the paired
side (suraxy: -k of dropped losing legs -> overcount)
3. initialValue=0 on big longshot winners -> mis-sized reconstruction
4. corrupt near-epoch res_t rows polluting sums
Fix: All-Time/Conv/30d P&L are now the sum of Polymarket's OWN realizedPnl
per closed position over FULL history (cache.closed_exits, extended to store
realized_pnl; smart_money.closed_exits captures it + relaxes the avg/tb
guard). This is the wallet's realized track record — what a copier mirroring
buy/sell/hold banks — and sums to PM. Immune to all four bugs (each asset is
its own realized row; no size/entry/res_t needed). Win% = share of closed
positions that made money. Verified vs PM: ewww1 1.00x, KBO30 0.0x->0.97x,
suraxy 2.7x->1.03x, sign flip fixed; oliman2 1.63x is correct-by-design
(realized track record vs PM's open-book unrealized marks). README gotcha 11
rewritten; dashboard tooltips reframed off the copy-ceiling language.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
copybot[bot]