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payouts: exact on-chain resolution timestamps via Etherscan V2 (resolution_time)
...
CTF ConditionResolution logs, full-range topic query (Alchemy free tier
caps getLogs at 10 blocks), cached forever in resolution_times. Verified:
Brewers Jul-7 market truly resolved 2026-07-08 04:51 — the cached
endDate-metadata res_t was 29h wrong; Kruto's sell provably 365 min
pre-resolution. Key = etherscan_key (gitignored config). Migration of
trust/validate/portfolio onto true res_t queued in HANDOFF.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-07-08 18:05:21 -04:00
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cleanup + calibration tracker
...
- Railway project magnificent-kindness DELETED (soft-delete, purges
2026-07-10) — retired-infra fully gone; requirements.txt loses its
Railway-detection rationale (stdlib core, optional extras noted).
- tests/test_check_book.py: the Option A orphan-fix regression harness
moves into the repo (was session-local); 6 cases, no network/config.
- daily.sh: calibration step — one row/day of live-book vs backtest
equity to live/history/calibration.csv, the series that sizes real
money (day-zero row seeded: live $1,000 vs model $22,027).
- config.json.bak (untracked, stale copy of the leaked Alchemy key)
deleted locally.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-07-08 17:09:46 -04:00
a186d5a839
portfolio: --bank flag (and backtest.json 'bank') — replay any starting bankroll
...
$500 Set E 30d: $14,140 (+2728%) vs $1,000's +2103% — smaller books
compound purer because 4% stakes hit the their-bet ceilings later.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-07-08 16:55:16 -04:00
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2026-07-08 20:26:07 +00:00
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sharps: publish sold-split records (W/L held-only, S and R split out)
...
First list on the aligned taxonomy. Notable: 0xb0E43B and
ArbTraderRookie's records reveal refund-harvesting (~800/1150 EXACT-0.5
redeems on ITF totals bought under 50c — $148k of 0xb0E43B's $218k) —
real edge, but 1-2c/share margins that taker copies can't clear.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-07-08 16:10:05 -04:00
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sharps: refund band 1e-4 — 0.005 mislabeled ~50c sells as refunds
...
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-07-08 16:04:54 -04:00
5602429144
sharps: split SOLD out of the record — W/L = held to resolution only
...
rtally now uses the same redeem-vs-sell price discriminator as the
backtest (exit_p ≈ payout ⇒ held; mid print ⇒ SOLD). The sign-only
tally counted a mirror-seller's exits as wins — 0xb0E43B read '94.4%
all-time' on 937 sells with almost no held outcomes. Win% is held-only
now, sold P&L stays in the P&L columns, all_sold/conv_sold/conv30_sold
populate for the dashboard's +NS record chips.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-07-08 15:52:44 -04:00
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portfolio: first Set E backtest publish (7 wallets, pinned floors) — $22.0k/+2103% 30d
...
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-07-08 14:52:27 -04:00
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