v0 (res_tok only) said 'hold wins everywhere, +$43/fill' — that was
resolution-timing survivorship (round 3). Chain-graded, 1,146 forward
fills: hold -$5.92/fill and EVERY exit horizon negative too (best -$4.18
at +30m). Cohort split: tape-resolved winners drift to +$44 held; the
hidden-loss cohort bleeds monotonically from minute one (-$6@60s ->
-$44@2h). No scalp, no rescue — surge moments are symmetric information
events; net of fees + worst-print entry the taker case is closed.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Forward days, 559 resolved fills: exit +60s = -$3.43/fill (burst-top entry
is briefly underwater), +30m = +$13.63, +2h = +$35.51 vs hold-to-resolution
+$43.56. Monotone accrual to resolution in every slice — the under-reaction
converges over hours, not seconds. v1's >3h 'bleed bucket' is POSITIVE on
the full signal (+$44.66/fill): another confirmation the v1 book's losses
were cash-gate selection, not hold-time. All entry bands positive forward.
No A2-scalp pre-registration warranted; markout re-reads stay on to verify
with real bids.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
jaxperro