Pulls each wallet's USDC funding history (alchemy_getAssetTransfers, full
history, no 10k-block cap) and links wallets sharing a funder = likely same
operator. Critical refinement: a shared funder only counts if its OWN outbound
degree is small (personal hub <=15 recipients); exchanges/bridges fan out to
hundreds and must be excluded or everything false-links. Verified: the 10
watchlist wallets shared 11 infra funders (Coinbase-style) and looked like one
ring until the degree filter correctly cleared them to independent.
Runs automatically after --market/--scan when alchemy_key is in config.json
(gitignored). README updated.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Replicates the Bubblemaps / 60 Minutes per-wallet insider methodology on the
public data API:
- Improbability z-score / p-value: wins vs the wins entry odds imply (beating
the market's own pricing) — the rigorous edge metric the project was after,
unlike biased win-rate or variance-driven PnL
- Pre-resolution timing, fresh-wallet (/traded count), sizing signals
- Scoring GATED by improbability so losing sports bettors (entering <24h before
a game is normal) no longer false-flag
- Modes: --scan leaderboard, --market <conditionId|slug> (score a market's
traders, the Bubblemaps approach), --wallet deep profile
Findings: leaderboard has no extreme insiders (max z~2.3, high-vol sharps);
scanning a market's traders surfaces real edges (e.g. arimnestos z=4.0 p~3e-5
over 2205 bets). Funding-cluster linking needs a Polygonscan/Alchemy key
(public RPC getLogs capped at 10k blocks). README documents methodology +
the project-wide conclusion.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
jaxperro