3 Commits

Author	SHA1	Message	Date
jaxperro	d34a4c5ac8	forward: chain-overlay payouts — pendings were hiding the losses ... THE SCORER BUG (found 2026-07-22 by the surge paper book divergence): tape-resolution timing is win-biased. When our side LOSES, the winning sibling keeps trading at 99c until close, the sibling-veto keeps the market 'alive', and the loss sits in the ignored pending bucket — while wins tape-resolve within hours and score. Jul-21 audit: tape-resolved fills 81% hit (+$46/fill); chain-resolving the 329 'pending' fills: 26% hit, -$49.61/fill; combined truth 53% ≈ the paper book's 57.5%. The paper harness was the honest instrument; every ledger arm was flattered. payouts_for(): tape proxy first, CTF chain truth for the remainder (payouts.py cache — immutable, so nightly incremental cost is small); refunds (0.5) now booked as scratches. Applied to flow, controls, and oracle (sub5c inherits via score_flow). Ledger recompute follows; #16 verdict evaluates corrected numbers only. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>	2026-07-22 16:56:13 -04:00
jaxperro	2fab0424d0	research: sub-5c surge longshots as an EXPLORATORY forward arm ... Same frozen surge signal, band opened to 0.5-5c, all niches, F=$300 — tracked nightly as flow_sub5c_EXPLORATORY (NOT pre-registered). First tape scan: they live in in-play sports totals/blowout tails + esports maps; ~70% crater; 31 resolved fills, 4 wins, EV sign owned entirely by two lottery hits; sim depth-blind at longshot share counts. Accumulate to ~100+ resolved fills before any pre-registration or kill. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>	2026-07-21 14:48:26 -04:00
jaxperro	2f4f2ccbbe	research silo: edge factory — calibrated sim, Study A/B, forward ledger (#2, #16, #17) ... research/ is a hard silo (README rules): read-only tape, no bot imports, own launchd (com.jaxperro.research-nightly 09:15, after daily ingest). - tape.py: proxy-resolution (the 742/742-validated method), niche + crypto strike/expiry/sprint parsers, tick loaders - sim.py: FAK execution replayer; hold_s=3 fitted on 29 real labeled live attempts (79% fill/miss classification), price noise 2-4c, measured OPTIMISM BIAS -2c/fill carried into every verdict threshold - requote.py: crater refill timing per niche (crypto 94% <4s, esports 83% <10s, sports needs ~25s, geo/politics minutes) -> params/requote_timing.json - study_flow.py + robustness: in-play surge momentum. Identity NULL result: 10 pooled controls +23.85/fill == informed +23.68 -> hypothesis revised at freeze, surge-EV primary, identity secondary (#16) - study_oracle.py: oracle digital fair value. 86% craters, winner's-curse inversion at big edges, nothing frozen (no cell at 30 fills) (#17) - forward.py + nightly.sh: re-scores frozen studies on last 3 tape days, appends forward_ledger.jsonl; verdicts ONLY from post-freeze rows Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>	2026-07-20 17:34:22 -04:00