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2026-07-20 20:32:09 +00:00
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tape research: first sharp screen over the RTDS firehose ( #2 )
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live/tape_sharps.py — insider.py's improbability z transplanted onto the
3-day tape (13.8M fills, ALL wallets, no survivorship bias): proxy-resolve
tokens from terminal-VWAP convergence (0.97/0.03, 2h quiet, sibling veto),
net held positions per wallet-token, z = (W - Σp)/sqrt(Σp(1-p)) over
proxy-resolved held bets, then payouts.py chain-truth overlay on the
shortlist (refunds count as neither). Copyable/algo split: discrete-entry
conviction bettors (<= 6 fills/bet, <= 90 bets, med >= $50) vs continuous
flow accounts that score huge but can't be mirrored at 3-17s lag.
First run (tape through 2026-07-20 16:59): 2,360 wallets screened, 561
score z >= 2 with pnl > 0, 25 copyable candidates at z 4.0-5.5 — chain
validation 742 payout vectors, ZERO proxy flips. Benchmark sanity: benched
sharps (LSB1 +3.28, EdwardIN +2.38) land positive, benched losers negative.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-07-20 15:36:01 -04:00
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fix tape ingest data loss + daily digest send
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ingest: sftp needs stdin=DEVNULL under launchd (no tty) — without it, empty/partial files decoded to 0 lines and the missing integrity guard MARKED+DELETED them (36 segments lost). Guard: a >200B gz that yields 0 lines is a failed fetch, left on box to retry.
digest: retry+backoff moved INTO _post so the digest send (not just the start ping) survives the post-wake DNS gap; ingest ping gets the same.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com >
2026-07-20 13:19:59 -04:00
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live: daily refresh — skilled + sharp wallets [skip ci]
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