 jaxperro
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8edccda58a
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docs: stage-0 coherence pass across README/HANDOFF/recorder/research
- README: recorder row + architecture diagram reflect fold->parquet->
15-min mirror (and research/ joins the diagram); cheat-sheet gains a
'sync the tape now' row
- HANDOFF: snapshot dated 2026-07-21, launchd roster (tape-sync +
research-nightly wait behavior), #15 back in the open queue, tape ops
line in quick-reference
- recorder/README: ops block (sync_tape + fold health, deploy gap note),
storage economics (/mo, mirror as Stage-1 feedstock)
- research/README: nightly.sh wait-for-fresh-tape semantics
- live/tape_sharps.json: refreshed 4-day chain-validated screen (the
smoke run had briefly left a chain-less version)
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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2026-07-21 13:07:31 -04:00 |
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jaxperro
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2f4f2ccbbe
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research silo: edge factory — calibrated sim, Study A/B, forward ledger (#2, #16, #17)
research/ is a hard silo (README rules): read-only tape, no bot imports,
own launchd (com.jaxperro.research-nightly 09:15, after daily ingest).
- tape.py: proxy-resolution (the 742/742-validated method), niche + crypto
strike/expiry/sprint parsers, tick loaders
- sim.py: FAK execution replayer; hold_s=3 fitted on 29 real labeled live
attempts (79% fill/miss classification), price noise 2-4c, measured
OPTIMISM BIAS -2c/fill carried into every verdict threshold
- requote.py: crater refill timing per niche (crypto 94% <4s, esports 83%
<10s, sports needs ~25s, geo/politics minutes) -> params/requote_timing.json
- study_flow.py + robustness: in-play surge momentum. Identity NULL result:
10 pooled controls +23.85/fill == informed +23.68 -> hypothesis revised at
freeze, surge-EV primary, identity secondary (#16)
- study_oracle.py: oracle digital fair value. 86% craters, winner's-curse
inversion at big edges, nothing frozen (no cell at 30 fills) (#17)
- forward.py + nightly.sh: re-scores frozen studies on last 3 tape days,
appends forward_ledger.jsonl; verdicts ONLY from post-freeze rows
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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2026-07-20 17:34:22 -04:00 |
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