validate_timing: the holder gate went 37->34->14->0 across runs and the
log said only '0 copy-positive holders' — which condition bit took an
hour of hand queries to reconstruct. Now every run prints the
first-failure breakdown (today: inactive_30d 48, PASS 34, copy_pnl<=0
20, trust_roi<=0 7, trust_wr<55% 3).
skill.py: a BH threshold of 0.0 is NOT a broken bar — it is 'nobody
cleared FDR'. With 1,207 simultaneous tests the rank-1 bar is p<=4.1e-5
and the best wallet is 1.7e-4, so a z~3 record is no longer
distinguishable from luck. The message now says that with the numbers.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- copybot: model Polymarket taker fees (V2, since 2026-03-30: shares*rate*p*(1-p),
sports 0.03) on every paper/live fill; track fees_paid in state + feed; settle
P&L nets the entry fee. publish_feed now commits state + fills ledger with the
feed (autostash rebase) so the local poller is the sole state writer.
- validate_timing: copy_pnl/held_pnl are fee-aware -> sharp selection now requires
clearing real copy costs; conv stats + lead profile use resolved bets only.
- conviction_scan/skill: exclude res_t>now rows (early-sold positions in
unresolved markets scored at curPrice - a mark, not an outcome; was ~5% of the
June test window at a 72% pseudo-win rate).
- portfolio: skip unresolved rows (stake used to vanish from equity); missed bets
of kind=open no longer KeyError - mark-to-market hypothetical P&L.
- collect: cap stale refreshes at STALE_CAP=2500/run (bulk-aged pool turned the
daily refresh into a ~40h pull holding the DuckDB lock).
- Actions cron disabled: GitHub ran */5 every ~1.5-2.5h and the 10-min stale
window skipped the rest -> 1 of ~104 qualifying buys copied. launchd --poll 60
is now the runner; workflow stays as manual backstop.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
live/: operationalizes the LBS/Yale "skilled ~3%" result against the live
data-api. Enumerate recent liquid markets -> top traders -> candidate pool;
cache every wallet's resolved bets once in DuckDB (~26k wallets / 12.5M bets,
keyed by per-bet resolution time so any cutoff re-scores in seconds); 5-gate
skill funnel (n>=15, z>0, BH-FDR, split-half OOS, MM/bot cap); dashboard +
daily refresh.
Key finding: copying the high-win-rate "favorite-rider" cohort looks +23.6%
in-sample but loses -7.4% once selected on pre-June-1 data only (99% -> 68%
win rate) — selection bias, reproducing the paper's "lucky winners revert"
result on live data. Win rate != edge, again.
wide/: bulk subgraph->DuckDB scanner (survivorship-bias-free over all wallets),
but the public subgraph is frozen at Jan 2026 -> historical tool only.
Large local data (*.duckdb, candidates.json, *_scored.json, history/) gitignored.
README + FINDINGS updated with the current logic and the clean result.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
jaxperro