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jaxperro 0b12820eeb research: settle_discount (T7) — mechanism confirmed via incumbents; residual UNPROVEN (63% of volume outside tape-resolution = round-3 lower-bound caveat)
Incumbent census (volume-ranked): industrialized niche — top harvester
$3.2M vol/5,854 buys at +2.27% per ~4h hold; several ~$1M at +2.4-3.4%;
two big operators NEGATIVE (-3%) — residual risk is real, top-5 share
only 20%. Bucket returns (+6.2%/90-95c etc) are UPPER bounds: $129M of
high-price buys sit on non-tape-resolved tokens where upsets linger.
Verdict: park at our capital scale (pennies on idle cash); revisit as an
idle-cash overlay once nightly chain coverage closes the bias, or if
bankroll grows 10x.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-23 15:14:04 -04:00