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Author SHA1 Message Date
jaxperro aab3bc7d9e research: miss_audit (T8) — chain-only guard counterfactual (v0 fallback retracted in-file)
98 chain-graded misses. The useful inversion: crater_reject misses were
GOOD misses (-$7.74/-$6.32 per $100 both books) — unfillable entries were
adversely selected, consistent with the week's winner's-curse theme, and
puts a question mark on the 07-20 requote-retry's EV (follow-up: score
retry outcomes). Everything else outlier-dominated at n<=21/bucket (one
+1567% longshot carries depth_thin); no filter changes warranted. Ledger
deepens daily — maker-window expiries now feed it.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-23 15:10:38 -04:00