Real-time PAPER trader of the FROZEN surge signal on its own Fly app
(wwf-surgebot, recorder-pattern image, no keys, no bot imports):
$100 paper book · 5%-of-equity daily stakes ($1 venue floor) · cash-gated
all-or-nothing · event cap 2 · paper FAK against the live CLOB book inside
p_ref*1.05 · provisional CLOB settles re-graded nightly with CTF payout
vectors (grade_surge.py -> surge_paper_ledger.jsonl). Informed set
published daily (informed_set.py -> params/informed_set.json, frozen
method). Unit-tested: fill/crater/event-cap/cash paths exact; live smoke:
dual sockets + sizing clean. Believing any of it stays gated on the #16
forward verdict.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Replays candidate sets through the engine's mirrored mechanics (stake rule
+ DD halving + their-shares ceiling + one-market-one-stake adds + all-or-
nothing cash gate + proportional sell mirror, copytrade.py cited) with the
calibrated sim fill model and tape proxy-resolution. Per-wallet conviction
floors from the paper config's pinned p80s (candidates without pins get
tape-p80, same rule). Outputs per-set×bankroll: realized/open, deployment
stats, miss families (capital/crater/band), capital-miss hypothetical P&L,
per-wallet realized, and --loo leave-one-out marginals at $1k.
Validated against the real paper book on the same window: 33 replay opens
vs 26 real (backfill bias documented — pre-tape positions' adds replay as
opens), capital misses 0 vs 0, peak deploy 62% vs the era's 74%, mean
deployed $297 vs ~$360. SEARCH TOOL ONLY per the silo README — verdicts
stay with forward_ledger.jsonl.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
jaxperro