3 Commits

Author SHA1 Message Date
jaxperro e6730ef579 research: data-moat hardening — durable settle logs, offline-proof forward backfill, nightly market-metadata snapshot
- surgebot/oraclebot: settles now append-only to /data/*_settles.jsonl
  (SETTLED_TRIM rotation can never lose a settle; graders pull them)
- forward.py: backfills any tape-covered day missing from the ledger —
  a Mac offline gap > RESCORE_DAYS no longer leaves verdict-evidence holes
- meta_snap.py: nightly gzipped snapshot of all active markets (12k, 2MB/d,
  local-only) — end dates make tau knowable at trigger for every tape
  trigger; token->outcome maps kill the label-gap scorer artifact class
- .gitignore: pulled raw streams + meta stay local (re-fetchable, lean repo)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-23 00:43:12 -04:00
jaxperro fd2162b68b research: observational instrumentation — bid_top on attempts + markout book re-reads (+60/300/1800s) on both harnesses
No signal-path change (SEM_VER unchanged): records more, alters nothing.
Purpose: real exit marks for the markout-exit study (prints can't show the
bid) + book depth at mispricing moments (maker-study stage-1 groundwork).
oraclebot gains the same append-only attempts log as A2. Nightly pulls the
new files alongside state.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-22 18:43:12 -04:00
jaxperro fce6f0f2de research: oraclebot — Study B real-time paper harness (wwf-oraclebot) + nightly chain grading
Mirrors forward.py::score_oracle semantics verbatim (constants frozen from
study_oracle/tape); live-only suppress-only guards; $100 FAK walks the live
asks inside p_ref*1.05; three settle layers (own-feed tick, CLOB flags,
nightly CTF re-grade via grade_oracle.py -> oracle_paper_ledger.jsonl).
Shakedown 2026-07-22: 52 events/9 fills/43 craters at p50 541ms; 30/30
event agreement vs tape scorer on the comparable set. Verdict still binds
to forward_ledger only (#17).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-22 16:51:54 -04:00