The honest 30d backtest: $1k -> $2,538 (+154%), 78W/18L/112R — not the
refund-inflated +8,627%. Sharp list: 33 copy-positive holders under truth
gates; 0x4bFb-whale and ArbTrader no longer qualify (their conviction
records were carried by 50/50 refunds counted as wins). portfolio.py now
reports refunds as R, not L (a scratch is not a loss).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
* per-trade Discord pings removed everywhere: copybot placement/settle/startup
alerts silenced (engine.webhook forced off), webhook_receiver.py archived,
Procfile removed. The ONLY Discord output is now live/discord_daily.py at the
end of the daily pipeline: one embed listing every watch_sharps wallet with a
Polymarket profile link + 30D conviction win% / record / P&L.
* trust.py fixes found on the first scheduled run (sharp list collapsed 25->7):
- Polymarket rewrites endDate after resolution, so freshly re-pulled wallets'
corrected res_t stopped matching the stale cross-wallet consensus
(374/454 of iohihoo's rows wrongly distrusted). v2 rows with resolved=TRUE
are now self-certifying (resolved=TRUE implies endDate-based res_t observed
post-end) — consensus only gates legacy rows.
- daily.sh invalidates watchlist wallets by DELETING their pulled row; a
transiently failed re-pull then dropped the wallet's entire history from
the trusted set (the 0x73afc816 whale vanished). Legacy rows of wallets
missing from pulled now fall back to trusting markets resolved >=14d ago.
Re-run: 85 conviction wallets, 34 copy-positive sharps — whale/iohihoo/
Stavenson/LSB1/Kruto all recovered.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Two data bugs were hiding the best copy targets (FINDINGS 'The holder
blind spot'):
* live/trust.py (new): only score rows whose res_t matches the market's
consensus resolution time across >=2 wallets, pulled after resolution,
resolved != False. Kills the res_t=ts fallback poison that let scalpers
masquerade as 99%-win holders (ArbTraderRookie's rows were 100% this).
* conviction_scan.py: trusted rows only; p80 conviction cutoff from the
train window only (look-ahead leak); new gates z_all>2 (whole-book z,
~doubles pooled forward copy-ROI) and median conviction stake >=$50
(dust filter). 55 wallets selected, forward 30/38 profitable, +21.4%
pooled (was 284 selected, +16.0%).
* validate_timing.py: the held-edge gates now read the trailing-90d
trusted conviction record via trust.conviction_record instead of the
replay's held leg, which is structurally ~all-unresolved for week-lead
holders (whale 0x73afc816 showed 'held 0-0, 21 unresolved' and was
rejected at 100% fwd win). 25 copy-positive holders now, including
Stavenson (51-0), the whale (112-4) and iohihoo (98-10).
* cache.py: query() helper so trust.py shares the single in-process
connection instead of fighting the single-writer lock.
* README: gotcha 8 (fake res_t/won) + candidate next data sources
(Goldsky pipelines, PolymarketData order books, Pinnacle CLV,
Polysights); FINDINGS: dated section correcting the iohihoo/ArbTrader
scalper-trap verdicts as winner=False-bug artifacts.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
validate_timing.py now writes name, conv_win, conv_won/lost, conv_pnl,
realized_pnl, last_conv_bet and last_trade per sharp, so the dashboard
reads everything from the feed in ONE request instead of 3 data-api
calls per wallet (no more rate-limit storms). Stats come from the cache
(survivorship-correct): conviction win%/record/P&L over ALL of the
wallet's top-20%-stake bets; realized P&L over the last 500 resolved
bets. Resolved P&L per bet = stake*(1-p)/p if won else -stake.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Swap the flat $200 conviction cutoff for a per-wallet percentile (top
20% of each wallet's own stake sizes) everywhere it was used:
- cache.py: canonical CONV_PCTILE=0.80 + conv_cutoff() helper (matches
the dashboard's pctl: filter >0, sort, linear interp)
- conviction_scan.py: per-wallet quantile_cont(size,0.8) in SQL, was
`size >= 200`
- validate_timing.py, pnl_focused.py: use cache.conv_cutoff
Rationale + validation: p80 reproduces flat-$200's win-rate lift on the
sharps while adapting to scale (a whale's $200 isn't conviction, a
minnow's is). Re-running the pipeline under p80: scan finds 218 profile
wallets (was 69), forward 62/83 profitable (p~0), +16% pooled ROI — edge
persists out-of-sample. Regenerated conviction_wallets.json /
watch_sharps.json; docs updated. skill.py/strategy.py/insider.py
untouched (score over all bets / size as copyability heuristic only).
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
conviction_scan.py finds wallets whose high-conviction (>=$200) bets win on
uncertain (~0.4-0.6) markets — real edge, not favorite-riding — trained pre-June
and validated June (25/37 stayed profitable forward, p=0.024). validate_timing.py
applies the entry->resolution lead-time gate that separates copyable sharps from
uncopyable insiders: of 69 matches, 21 were insiders (lead <6h), leaving 23
validated copyable sharps (watch_sharps.json) now shown on jaxperro.com/trading.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
jaxperro