From ecd629fd5a056b4b1d8a07390dc5b9eebac1c834 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: jaxperro Date: Fri, 26 Jun 2026 11:21:46 -0600 Subject: [PATCH] =?UTF-8?q?live:=20daily=20refresh=20=E2=80=94=20skilled?= =?UTF-8?q?=20+=20sharp=20wallets=20[skip=20ci]?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit --- live/conviction_wallets.json | 180 ++++++------- live/dashboard.html | 14 +- live/portfolio.json | 2 +- live/watch_sharps.json | 472 +++++++++++++++++++++-------------- live/watch_skilled.json | 452 ++++++++++++++------------------- 5 files changed, 569 insertions(+), 551 deletions(-) diff --git a/live/conviction_wallets.json b/live/conviction_wallets.json index cf9748d4..a8950cd4 100644 --- a/live/conviction_wallets.json +++ b/live/conviction_wallets.json @@ -398,11 +398,11 @@ { "wallet": "0xf419556a9758214628edff29dce8f39a8aa13ce7", "name": "0xf419556a", - "train_win": 73.0, - "train_conv_roi": 0.463, - "train_z": 8.89, + "train_win": 73.1, + "train_conv_roi": 0.467, + "train_z": 8.95, "avg_entry": 0.51, - "train_n": 392, + "train_n": 391, "fwd_win": 63.0, "fwd_conv_roi": 0.098, "fwd_n": 27 @@ -803,6 +803,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 2 }, + { + "wallet": "0x5b6e9bce6d8a533017e7f16987c9854c5da955b9", + "name": "0x5b6e9bce", + "train_win": 76.1, + "train_conv_roi": 0.287, + "train_z": 4.42, + "avg_entry": 0.59, + "train_n": 155, + "fwd_win": 72.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.302, + "fwd_n": 55 + }, { "wallet": "0xabc4b581c351c2175fe2451bd920f11531329307", "name": "0xabc4b581", @@ -851,18 +863,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0x5b6e9bce6d8a533017e7f16987c9854c5da955b9", - "name": "0x5b6e9bce", - "train_win": 75.8, - "train_conv_roi": 0.275, - "train_z": 4.21, - "avg_entry": 0.59, - "train_n": 149, - "fwd_win": 72.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.302, - "fwd_n": 55 - }, { "wallet": "0xa25a4000033140862243b055703e96fb035a39d9", "name": "0xa25a4000", @@ -1418,14 +1418,14 @@ { "wallet": "0xc684828f6b03487759ced2ebdd975f91f3532228", "name": "0xc684828f", - "train_win": 78.0, - "train_conv_roi": 0.173, - "train_z": 4.11, + "train_win": 77.4, + "train_conv_roi": 0.172, + "train_z": 4.06, "avg_entry": 0.67, - "train_n": 254, - "fwd_win": 72.5, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.018, - "fwd_n": 91 + "train_n": 252, + "fwd_win": 71.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.029, + "fwd_n": 93 }, { "wallet": "0xd212624d423e1c351783fe71bb4250850d34feaf", @@ -1595,6 +1595,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.221, "fwd_n": 171 }, + { + "wallet": "0x1fb7053bb490c6ec05a78fe2ed383af48526fb66", + "name": "0x1fb7053b", + "train_win": 70.6, + "train_conv_roi": 0.157, + "train_z": 2.8, + "avg_entry": 0.59, + "train_n": 126, + "fwd_win": 72.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.254, + "fwd_n": 22 + }, { "wallet": "0x09b5447d6589fca16c871383c538904da884f006", "name": "0x09b5447d", @@ -1691,18 +1703,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.276, "fwd_n": 8 }, - { - "wallet": "0x1fb7053bb490c6ec05a78fe2ed383af48526fb66", - "name": "0x1fb7053b", - "train_win": 69.5, - "train_conv_roi": 0.142, - "train_z": 2.65, - "avg_entry": 0.59, - "train_n": 131, - "fwd_win": 86.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.434, - "fwd_n": 15 - }, { "wallet": "0xc6bebb909360248d5bf170a1e00ccb0efdeb43c9", "name": "0xc6bebb90", @@ -1808,8 +1808,8 @@ "avg_entry": 0.68, "train_n": 152, "fwd_win": 70.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.068, - "fwd_n": 171 + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.063, + "fwd_n": 178 }, { "wallet": "0xaf4635074c8f9966ff44f2497183b53fc0578c1d", @@ -1919,30 +1919,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0xab417c0bacc9fe17368d5d662c957f54a1fcc453", - "name": "0xab417c0b", - "train_win": 70.6, - "train_conv_roi": 0.116, - "train_z": 3.26, - "avg_entry": 0.63, - "train_n": 364, - "fwd_win": 62.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.105, - "fwd_n": 110 - }, - { - "wallet": "0x23f544a1f92150f25ebafae0e40f5db448b37a6e", - "name": "0x23f544a1", - "train_win": 71.7, - "train_conv_roi": 0.115, - "train_z": 2.76, - "avg_entry": 0.65, - "train_n": 290, - "fwd_win": 80.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.144, - "fwd_n": 110 - }, { "wallet": "0xcd9de3b93f09b803b4564f20beb00c9392752269", "name": "0xcd9de3b9", @@ -2028,16 +2004,16 @@ "fwd_n": 0 }, { - "wallet": "0xb0f47416ad54915aea513144d7f3a9429b446fa9", - "name": "0xb0f47416", - "train_win": 69.6, - "train_conv_roi": 0.11, - "train_z": 3.19, - "avg_entry": 0.61, - "train_n": 293, - "fwd_win": 66.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.123, - "fwd_n": 216 + "wallet": "0xab417c0bacc9fe17368d5d662c957f54a1fcc453", + "name": "0xab417c0b", + "train_win": 70.5, + "train_conv_roi": 0.109, + "train_z": 3.08, + "avg_entry": 0.63, + "train_n": 349, + "fwd_win": 61.6, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.076, + "fwd_n": 125 }, { "wallet": "0xbebf0f282a06a4b9de180536ee15211f77c29bae", @@ -2075,6 +2051,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0x23f544a1f92150f25ebafae0e40f5db448b37a6e", + "name": "0x23f544a1", + "train_win": 71.4, + "train_conv_roi": 0.106, + "train_z": 2.61, + "avg_entry": 0.65, + "train_n": 287, + "fwd_win": 79.6, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.132, + "fwd_n": 113 + }, { "wallet": "0xe89b2ad092a1a78789305423632b6e56c0eb701f", "name": "0xe89b2ad0", @@ -2090,14 +2078,14 @@ { "wallet": "0x86c878cde72660ec52f5e6f0f0438b76de8fc867", "name": "0x86c878cd", - "train_win": 77.5, + "train_win": 77.6, "train_conv_roi": 0.105, - "train_z": 2.93, - "avg_entry": 0.7, - "train_n": 284, - "fwd_win": 73.5, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.198, - "fwd_n": 98 + "train_z": 2.86, + "avg_entry": 0.71, + "train_n": 281, + "fwd_win": 73.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.178, + "fwd_n": 104 }, { "wallet": "0xe00740bce98a594e26861838885ab310ec3b548c", @@ -2123,6 +2111,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.059, "fwd_n": 160 }, + { + "wallet": "0xb0f47416ad54915aea513144d7f3a9429b446fa9", + "name": "0xb0f47416", + "train_win": 69.2, + "train_conv_roi": 0.103, + "train_z": 3.1, + "avg_entry": 0.61, + "train_n": 295, + "fwd_win": 66.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.121, + "fwd_n": 218 + }, { "wallet": "0xc5b5bbd42624a8f0c8dfa90221913007d8c77e80", "name": "0xc5b5bbd4", @@ -2231,18 +2231,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0xf3488e52ac2d7f0628b04481db5a5b0446f0e543", - "name": "0xf3488e52", - "train_win": 78.6, - "train_conv_roi": 0.091, - "train_z": 3.42, - "avg_entry": 0.7, - "train_n": 262, - "fwd_win": 76.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.069, - "fwd_n": 97 - }, { "wallet": "0xd0966031867f8a519fee2c300dc3389aad61fa63", "name": "0xd0966031", @@ -2267,6 +2255,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.012, "fwd_n": 166 }, + { + "wallet": "0xf3488e52ac2d7f0628b04481db5a5b0446f0e543", + "name": "0xf3488e52", + "train_win": 78.3, + "train_conv_roi": 0.087, + "train_z": 3.39, + "avg_entry": 0.7, + "train_n": 263, + "fwd_win": 76.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.07, + "fwd_n": 103 + }, { "wallet": "0x9f2c955bdf958f6eecb5b5b04583a2203608d0df", "name": "0x9f2c955b", diff --git a/live/dashboard.html b/live/dashboard.html index 501df91b..811910d1 100644 --- a/live/dashboard.html +++ b/live/dashboard.html @@ -36,13 +36,13 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de .b{color:var(--green)}.s{color:var(--red)}

Skilled Wallets · Polymarket

-

52 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-06-25 10:12

+

46 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-06-26 11:21

-
Validated wallets
52
-
Median z
4.5
-
Median OOS z
3.4
-
Value / longshot
31
-
Favorite-rider
10
+
Validated wallets
46
+
Median z
4.7
+
Median OOS z
3.5
+
Value / longshot
28
+
Favorite-rider
9
@@ -68,7 +68,7 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de

How to read it. z = how far the wallet beat the prices it paid (skill; >3 is strong). OOS z = whether that skill held on held-out bets — the gate that separates real edge from luck. Alpha 0.2–0.4 = share of bets in the underdog value zone where research finds real edge concentrates. Value wallets win by beating longshot/mid prices (the copyable alpha); Favorite-rider wallets post high win rates buying near-certain favorites (real but thin, hard to copy). Click any row for live recent trades. Not financial advice — split-half OOS, forward-track before sizing.