diff --git a/live/conviction_wallets.json b/live/conviction_wallets.json index af6393b3..a325e49b 100644 --- a/live/conviction_wallets.json +++ b/live/conviction_wallets.json @@ -287,6 +287,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.306, "fwd_n": 8 }, + { + "wallet": "0x49818089c6e2755e0e300a48a8dc4747cf9cd2b4", + "name": "0x49818089", + "train_win": 75.0, + "train_conv_roi": 0.576, + "train_z": 2.52, + "avg_entry": 0.48, + "train_n": 20, + "fwd_win": null, + "fwd_conv_roi": null, + "fwd_n": 0 + }, { "wallet": "0x3110105f252bae77622bec93a851010d9cecc3f5", "name": "0x3110105f", @@ -359,6 +371,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0x4b24f119cb982dac182dd301a0a2a86c3cfd4247", + "name": "0x4b24f119", + "train_win": 85.0, + "train_conv_roi": 0.493, + "train_z": 2.52, + "avg_entry": 0.58, + "train_n": 20, + "fwd_win": 76.9, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.361, + "fwd_n": 26 + }, { "wallet": "0xc78913397823e025ee6fa3dc6edd4e6ed2677972", "name": "0xc7891339", @@ -395,6 +419,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0xf419556a9758214628edff29dce8f39a8aa13ce7", + "name": "0xf419556a", + "train_win": 73.1, + "train_conv_roi": 0.467, + "train_z": 8.95, + "avg_entry": 0.51, + "train_n": 391, + "fwd_win": 63.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.098, + "fwd_n": 27 + }, { "wallet": "0x270d11f13d3d782c4e5f68107006bb51c4932ea7", "name": "0x270d11f1", @@ -431,6 +467,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", + "name": "0xbadaf319", + "train_win": 75.7, + "train_conv_roi": 0.453, + "train_z": 3.04, + "avg_entry": 0.61, + "train_n": 70, + "fwd_win": 81.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.103, + "fwd_n": 119 + }, { "wallet": "0x788cc3117a0a7ef3e8faff19216baec08c487b48", "name": "0x788cc311", @@ -695,6 +743,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0x5b6e9bce6d8a533017e7f16987c9854c5da955b9", + "name": "0x5b6e9bce", + "train_win": 77.8, + "train_conv_roi": 0.318, + "train_z": 4.99, + "avg_entry": 0.59, + "train_n": 162, + "fwd_win": 73.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.308, + "fwd_n": 57 + }, { "wallet": "0xeb6bf7369a1dd42c9c727d01939c209568d0632b", "name": "0xeb6bf736", @@ -755,18 +815,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0x5b6e9bce6d8a533017e7f16987c9854c5da955b9", - "name": "0x5b6e9bce", - "train_win": 76.6, - "train_conv_roi": 0.296, - "train_z": 4.6, - "avg_entry": 0.59, - "train_n": 158, - "fwd_win": 73.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.308, - "fwd_n": 57 - }, { "wallet": "0xb0ac765461248e208b422519103d179e9befdc0d", "name": "0xb0ac7654", @@ -863,6 +911,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0x968826ec22d0dddab82ab647f0d801e056affd45", + "name": "0x968826ec", + "train_win": 74.7, + "train_conv_roi": 0.257, + "train_z": 2.5, + "avg_entry": 0.61, + "train_n": 79, + "fwd_win": 55.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.14, + "fwd_n": 49 + }, { "wallet": "0x29797c03de83f3cdd3974ea8820245d5f863836c", "name": "0x29797c03", @@ -911,18 +971,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0xa5427f80816486ad3e4c80aad9711f87b8b5172c", - "name": "0xa5427f80", - "train_win": 84.8, - "train_conv_roi": 0.252, - "train_z": 8.16, - "avg_entry": 0.67, - "train_n": 401, - "fwd_win": null, - "fwd_conv_roi": null, - "fwd_n": 0 - }, { "wallet": "0x0d583b7e6ac6d26efb36fdae7b6f726928a13de7", "name": "0x0d583b7e", @@ -983,6 +1031,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0xa5427f80816486ad3e4c80aad9711f87b8b5172c", + "name": "0xa5427f80", + "train_win": 80.7, + "train_conv_roi": 0.236, + "train_z": 4.7, + "avg_entry": 0.64, + "train_n": 161, + "fwd_win": null, + "fwd_conv_roi": null, + "fwd_n": 0 + }, { "wallet": "0x6c5ba2b3b0a7d2cb66e1e0ae04ffbe654080fea8", "name": "0x6c5ba2b3", @@ -1043,18 +1103,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0xc9bfb9f0e5aee346b121b36a31f4c1c0af528ec8", - "name": "0xc9bfb9f0", - "train_win": 73.7, - "train_conv_roi": 0.224, - "train_z": 2.55, - "avg_entry": 0.62, - "train_n": 99, - "fwd_win": 59.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.073, - "fwd_n": 140 - }, { "wallet": "0x6e44a4ceea65c897ff6b728b88b69cfc1d7821bc", "name": "0x6e44a4ce", @@ -1175,18 +1223,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.19, "fwd_n": 61 }, - { - "wallet": "0x49818089c6e2755e0e300a48a8dc4747cf9cd2b4", - "name": "0x49818089", - "train_win": 67.0, - "train_conv_roi": 0.203, - "train_z": 3.72, - "avg_entry": 0.56, - "train_n": 267, - "fwd_win": null, - "fwd_conv_roi": null, - "fwd_n": 0 - }, { "wallet": "0x93164f2f061f931cd4d549834d657bb342ffc00c", "name": "0x93164f2f", @@ -1247,6 +1283,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.105, "fwd_n": 61 }, + { + "wallet": "0xc684828f6b03487759ced2ebdd975f91f3532228", + "name": "0xc684828f", + "train_win": 78.4, + "train_conv_roi": 0.186, + "train_z": 4.3, + "avg_entry": 0.67, + "train_n": 250, + "fwd_win": 73.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.015, + "fwd_n": 90 + }, { "wallet": "0x2b58033c5d54132eb97ca0ca22a0a50ac2e7ec75", "name": "0x2b58033c", @@ -1343,6 +1391,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0x1fb7053bb490c6ec05a78fe2ed383af48526fb66", + "name": "0x1fb7053b", + "train_win": 71.8, + "train_conv_roi": 0.175, + "train_z": 2.95, + "avg_entry": 0.6, + "train_n": 124, + "fwd_win": 66.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.211, + "fwd_n": 27 + }, { "wallet": "0xa6b8e799dacdd120681b6cee43d6768844fadc86", "name": "0xa6b8e799", @@ -1379,30 +1439,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.234, "fwd_n": 54 }, - { - "wallet": "0xc684828f6b03487759ced2ebdd975f91f3532228", - "name": "0xc684828f", - "train_win": 77.5, - "train_conv_roi": 0.173, - "train_z": 4.09, - "avg_entry": 0.67, - "train_n": 253, - "fwd_win": 73.9, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.009, - "fwd_n": 92 - }, - { - "wallet": "0x1fb7053bb490c6ec05a78fe2ed383af48526fb66", - "name": "0x1fb7053b", - "train_win": 71.5, - "train_conv_roi": 0.172, - "train_z": 2.9, - "avg_entry": 0.6, - "train_n": 123, - "fwd_win": 66.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.211, - "fwd_n": 27 - }, { "wallet": "0xd212624d423e1c351783fe71bb4250850d34feaf", "name": "0xd212624d", @@ -1459,9 +1495,9 @@ "train_z": 3.58, "avg_entry": 0.73, "train_n": 279, - "fwd_win": 77.3, + "fwd_win": 77.5, "fwd_conv_roi": 0.02, - "fwd_n": 88 + "fwd_n": 89 }, { "wallet": "0xb8adbd9b70907cd22cf1ab84f5091d7920d10e38", @@ -1819,9 +1855,9 @@ "train_z": 2.5, "avg_entry": 0.68, "train_n": 153, - "fwd_win": 71.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.085, - "fwd_n": 181 + "fwd_win": 71.4, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.087, + "fwd_n": 182 }, { "wallet": "0x6b0e20fa85e5035f72d73ee8622d6816a79344f6", @@ -2003,6 +2039,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0xb0f47416ad54915aea513144d7f3a9429b446fa9", + "name": "0xb0f47416", + "train_win": 69.4, + "train_conv_roi": 0.107, + "train_z": 3.23, + "avg_entry": 0.61, + "train_n": 301, + "fwd_win": 66.8, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.119, + "fwd_n": 223 + }, { "wallet": "0x23f544a1f92150f25ebafae0e40f5db448b37a6e", "name": "0x23f544a1", @@ -2027,18 +2075,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.048, "fwd_n": 121 }, - { - "wallet": "0x86c878cde72660ec52f5e6f0f0438b76de8fc867", - "name": "0x86c878cd", - "train_win": 77.5, - "train_conv_roi": 0.105, - "train_z": 2.85, - "avg_entry": 0.71, - "train_n": 280, - "fwd_win": 73.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.186, - "fwd_n": 107 - }, { "wallet": "0xe00740bce98a594e26861838885ab310ec3b548c", "name": "0xe00740bc", @@ -2051,18 +2087,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0xb0f47416ad54915aea513144d7f3a9429b446fa9", - "name": "0xb0f47416", - "train_win": 69.2, - "train_conv_roi": 0.104, - "train_z": 3.15, - "avg_entry": 0.61, - "train_n": 299, - "fwd_win": 66.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.123, - "fwd_n": 219 - }, { "wallet": "0xe4ad4bc9e7742d1c08636e886dc631c6bb93795c", "name": "0xe4ad4bc9", @@ -2111,6 +2135,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0x86c878cde72660ec52f5e6f0f0438b76de8fc867", + "name": "0x86c878cd", + "train_win": 77.1, + "train_conv_roi": 0.098, + "train_z": 2.76, + "avg_entry": 0.7, + "train_n": 280, + "fwd_win": 72.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.172, + "fwd_n": 110 + }, { "wallet": "0xea9f038c28acdac1bd415f998c0d24e59e58045e", "name": "0xea9f038c", @@ -2591,6 +2627,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.005, "fwd_n": 26 }, + { + "wallet": "0x409555b6b66e3d9b26c289a24121c19d93144583", + "name": "0x409555b6", + "train_win": 73.5, + "train_conv_roi": 0.034, + "train_z": 2.45, + "avg_entry": 0.69, + "train_n": 449, + "fwd_win": null, + "fwd_conv_roi": null, + "fwd_n": 1 + }, { "wallet": "0xa85ce6075994cf3e069feeb2ccd9667608533463", "name": "0xa85ce607", diff --git a/live/dashboard.html b/live/dashboard.html index ce3e02d3..5fe93b22 100644 --- a/live/dashboard.html +++ b/live/dashboard.html @@ -36,13 +36,13 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de .b{color:var(--green)}.s{color:var(--red)}

Skilled Wallets · Polymarket

-

45 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-06-27 11:15

+

31 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-06-28 11:46

-
Validated wallets
45
-
Median z
4.3
-
Median OOS z
3.4
-
Value / longshot
27
-
Favorite-rider
9
+
Validated wallets
31
+
Median z
4.8
+
Median OOS z
3.1
+
Value / longshot
20
+
Favorite-rider
5
@@ -68,7 +68,7 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de

How to read it. z = how far the wallet beat the prices it paid (skill; >3 is strong). OOS z = whether that skill held on held-out bets — the gate that separates real edge from luck. Alpha 0.2–0.4 = share of bets in the underdog value zone where research finds real edge concentrates. Value wallets win by beating longshot/mid prices (the copyable alpha); Favorite-rider wallets post high win rates buying near-certain favorites (real but thin, hard to copy). Click any row for live recent trades. Not financial advice — split-half OOS, forward-track before sizing.