diff --git a/copybot_fills.jsonl b/copybot_fills.jsonl index 657dc786..bd79c5a2 100644 --- a/copybot_fills.jsonl +++ b/copybot_fills.jsonl @@ -409,3 +409,4 @@ {"ts": 1783983852.9, "side": "SELL", "token": "60806317326159607374282200707556294855206853468836223934335735983346661186527", "shares": 121.9587, "price": 0.86, "fee": 0.4405, "mode": "paper"} {"ts": 1783991965.0, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "token": "24842837270178563045080596501119383388959231063439941109817831657351105273923", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "outcome": "Yes", "title": "Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?", "detect_lag_s": 5.0, "their_price": 0.8, "my_price": 0.79, "slippage_pct": -0.0125, "shares": 7.75, "cost": 6.12, "fee": 0.0386, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.79, "ba": 0.87, "spread": 0.08, "bid5c": 3515.48, "ask5c": 61.21}} {"ts": 1783996213.8, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "109624481875348569318303102429519724032296483676540566321245418804293736322472", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "No", "title": "Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $185 Week of July 13 2026?", "detect_lag_s": 0.8, "their_price": 0.85, "my_price": 0.78, "slippage_pct": -0.0824, "shares": 46.25, "cost": 36.07, "fee": 0.2381, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.78, "ba": 0.85, "spread": 0.07, "bid5c": 362.96, "ask5c": 360.74}} +{"ts": 1783996757.9, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "token": "66043823927578785385332294647462770708290770399339210264516767845856140852007", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "outcome": "No", "title": "Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?", "detect_lag_s": 0.9, "their_price": 0.351, "my_price": 0.356, "slippage_pct": 0.0142, "shares": 57.34, "cost": 20.41, "fee": 0.3944, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.355, "ba": 0.369, "spread": 0.014, "bid5c": 643.49, "ask5c": 203.89}} diff --git a/copybot_state.json b/copybot_state.json index 5e55c29a..10be4885 100644 --- a/copybot_state.json +++ b/copybot_state.json @@ -3978,6 +3978,7 @@ "0x00005568d76f36b18fcead7eeff73834cc611f2c9bec873eca22ff13c973e2d1", "0x3e1ff5455988a71ce5829af5277e5d1c68b94a5aecb64d2b6c649312a796a41c", "0x3568aa3015c8f2c35cd76d8f36d98b6f52be5f8b1d563fc958aa8d6ca8e441d1", + "0xbedc6e1dbaa81c24685648dc223b53f761a71b1c1b12ec9fee415862d1d9e5cc", "0xeb694a4ceaee907fbd330ddb770c6cbe4bbd80d507404382d8a16c721af50c65", "0xa5ec8518eb4c6c6b2c5ab7c468e8577e7fcfa08515edcffabe6e5428e350d5e8", "0x6a40dd5669bb3baa0aca029e1332e78a7b44dd2c0941dd788134b5a9b3631dbd", @@ -6842,7 +6843,8 @@ "95719079385824444767210933052260527440494195733109151470684782584923881776379": 0.1331, "53291078133210336121182199964422257603727178933336230228878460008781536431480": 0.13, "5114758348937468364619995624757532956399328209015948227667388603288555799363": 0.11, - "24842837270178563045080596501119383388959231063439941109817831657351105273923": 189.76 + "24842837270178563045080596501119383388959231063439941109817831657351105273923": 189.76, + "66043823927578785385332294647462770708290770399339210264516767845856140852007": 378.401 } }, "seed_tokens": { @@ -9175,11 +9177,20 @@ "event": "will-ewy-hit-week-of-july-13-2026", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "cond": "0x73f249c806a34946776e96c784a6631b8b8421813a791903f9f9f576c4abaa7d" + }, + "66043823927578785385332294647462770708290770399339210264516767845856140852007": { + "shares": 57.34269662921349, + "cost": 20.414, + "title": "Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?", + "outcome": "No", + "event": "elon-musk-of-tweets-july-7-july-14-180-199", + "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", + "cond": "0x0b9cc242b752ec4ed05405b172a767d3c14a7ebaf4356437b6b6d69f6eaa1d7e" } }, "spend": { "date": "2026-07-14", - "usd": 42.19500000000001 + "usd": 62.60900000000001 }, "seeded": [ "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41", @@ -9267,15 +9278,16 @@ "7410717121876145332418373180741433428881685336911848406679670735933068361996": "0xfa68c2d7750d6d7ed9b1103e86ac534bfbcd38724c2cd66f8358d71ed433cfc3", "60806317326159607374282200707556294855206853468836223934335735983346661186527": "0x140c41f4491c885da7763e4111ca13fb169d907d73d3918429f98e1c1862aab9", "24842837270178563045080596501119383388959231063439941109817831657351105273923": "0x7b2b0ac174514a7ec6351f91a01edd5064cf670c29f539cdfcc4d88bdb9937d0", - "109624481875348569318303102429519724032296483676540566321245418804293736322472": "0x73f249c806a34946776e96c784a6631b8b8421813a791903f9f9f576c4abaa7d" + "109624481875348569318303102429519724032296483676540566321245418804293736322472": "0x73f249c806a34946776e96c784a6631b8b8421813a791903f9f9f576c4abaa7d", + "66043823927578785385332294647462770708290770399339210264516767845856140852007": "0x0b9cc242b752ec4ed05405b172a767d3c14a7ebaf4356437b6b6d69f6eaa1d7e" }, - "cash": 2013.834081538767, + "cash": 1993.0256830587668, "lag": { - "n": 110, - "sum_s": 4446.69602560997, - "sum_slip_pct": -6.264639608337912 + "n": 111, + "sum_s": 4447.638231277466, + "sum_slip_pct": -6.250394596693527 }, - "fees_paid": 175.94711878330793, + "fees_paid": 176.34151726330794, "lag_recent": [ [ 1783933774.6, @@ -9321,6 +9333,11 @@ 1783996213.8, 0.8, -0.08235 + ], + [ + 1783996757.9, + 0.9, + 0.01425 ] ], "bets": { @@ -11378,11 +11395,30 @@ "exit_price": null, "pnl": null, "settled": null + }, + "66043823927578785385332294647462770708290770399339210264516767845856140852007": { + "token": "66043823927578785385332294647462770708290770399339210264516767845856140852007", + "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", + "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", + "outcome": "No", + "title": "Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?", + "their_price": 0.351, + "my_price": 0.356, + "slippage_pct": 0.0142, + "lag_s": 0.9, + "shares": 57.34, + "cost": 20.41, + "fee": 0.3944, + "opened": 1783996757, + "status": "open", + "exit_price": null, + "pnl": null, + "settled": null } }, "hwm": 2548.9580606723184, - "feed_sig": "8adc3fa098aaabe0ee578880bb42105f", - "feed_pushed_at": 1783996124.5490339, + "feed_sig": "078b081ea5e660dbca222b5a507c9742", + "feed_pushed_at": 1783996747.5408592, "missed": [ { "ts": 1783590977, @@ -12783,6 +12819,7 @@ "32104096565297883836000352861355752897828289155805411739291906317457022383178", "33268179848265621237713870867722058093642476198748605647422147599104237593873", "34320045222277936713720830397426891082987734367890243003396143984338989258132", + "35705751614283377894685275468402254265050284253796910428428109715421043826792", "39972622924517602245489680060778385204723280241121244048574854937226619835364", "43551466881329966936571085042990699617845453317700345932385022134457322350137", "56956427109653622706363572698999887557576122015571834883193371252810063459467", @@ -12825,10 +12862,10 @@ "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41": 1783900970, "0xd96750bf8d941a8186e592b0ae6e096da66aa266": 1783871702, "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb": 1783986131, - 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"fees_paid": 175.95, + "ledger_drift": -0.02, + "open_count": 9, + "fees_paid": 176.34, "fee_rate": 0.03, "lag": { - "n": 110, - "n24": 9, - "avg_s": 79.4, - "avg_slip_pct": -0.0361, + "n": 111, + "n24": 10, + "avg_s": 71.5, + "avg_slip_pct": -0.0311, "window_h": 24 }, "wallets": [ @@ -43,6 +43,25 @@ "BikesAreTheBikes": 113.44 }, "bets": [ + { + "token": "66043823927578785385332294647462770708290770399339210264516767845856140852007", + "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", + "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", + "outcome": "No", + "title": "Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?", + "their_price": 0.351, + "my_price": 0.356, + "slippage_pct": 0.0142, + "lag_s": 0.9, + "shares": 57.34, + "cost": 20.41, + "fee": 0.39, + "opened": 1783996757, + "status": "open", + "exit_price": null, + "pnl": null, + "settled": null + }, { "token": "109624481875348569318303102429519724032296483676540566321245418804293736322472", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", @@ -1997,26 +2016,6 @@ "pnl": 7.71, "settled": 1783597238, "note": "reconstructed from fills ledger 2026-07-09 \u2014 round clobbered pre-archive-fix" - 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