diff --git a/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl b/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
index 8ee09cae..c1ab1d26 100644
--- a/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_ignored_exits.jsonl
@@ -7035,3 +7035,27 @@
 {"ts": 1785828538.7, "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.2, "shares_held": 168.23, "cost_held": 68.97, "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785828539.9, "token": "69096949813045225336683960679829035937696902053122957721872788215708031375062", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.002, "shares_held": 431.49, "cost_held": 56.09, "title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?", "outcome": "No", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785828541.0, "token": "44629810392325306078320885126725432925432567001348877770307512058002095840308", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.17, "shares_held": 112.09, "cost_held": 52.6, "title": "Warsaw: Marcelina Podlinska vs Vendula Valdmannova", "outcome": "Marcelina Podlinska", "wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb", "mode": "paper"}
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+{"ts": 1785829576.8, "token": "45117272123752214028376460723544361926835506941716663290099518852020253462421", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.2, "shares_held": 168.23, "cost_held": 68.97, "title": "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "paper"}
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+{"ts": 1785830252.7, "token": "69816346859095495747189627053263753156196009953825285858477796399815602774300", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.37, "shares_held": 210.4428, "cost_held": 116.53, "title": "US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?", "outcome": "No", "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "mode": "paper"}
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+{"ts": 1785830596.4, "token": "44629810392325306078320885126725432925432567001348877770307512058002095840308", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.17, "shares_held": 112.09, "cost_held": 52.6, "title": "Warsaw: Marcelina Podlinska vs Vendula Valdmannova", "outcome": "Marcelina Podlinska", "wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb", "mode": "paper"}
diff --git a/copybot_missed_archive.jsonl b/copybot_missed_archive.jsonl
index a008f016..59658b0b 100644
--- a/copybot_missed_archive.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_missed_archive.jsonl
@@ -99,3 +99,4 @@
 {"ts": 1784207355, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "token": "98849429077363983479976319570357712213755247481827901912930434552765906797396", "cond": "0x6266a812b672fb0424235909307279a2d4f52ad291b00e4a85767c146d10a2c0", "title": "Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner", "outcome": "Team Spirit", "price": 0.47, "stake": 11.58, "reason": "order rejected: no orders found to match with FAK order (paper model: best a", "status": "sold", "pnl": 2.58, "settled": 1784207612, "name": "gkmgkldfmg", "exit_price": 0.5893}
 {"ts": 1784275928, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "15456330829547795037828293282236765253933989530349029925038235552652310014831", "cond": "0x240c2424f9e2de98676f8a2dce520b2dfee499b68194ac5db0537be851f56989", "title": "Will Revolut's valuation hit (HIGH) $90B by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "price": 0.28, "stake": 47.29, "reason": "book unreliable (spread 0.64 > 0.08)", "status": "won", "pnl": 120.58, "settled": 1784756458, "name": "0xbadaf319", "exit_checked": true}
 {"ts": 1784287003, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "token": "99769792009260570054217311703996683522727922229995804271060316488330979046706", "cond": "0x9d407ed371fd904ef375724783d30eef0405e5d63d6bf1280d913b76492a035d", "title": "LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner", "outcome": "Hanwha Life Esports", "price": 0.5699, "stake": 104.86, "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)", "status": "lost", "pnl": -106.21, "settled": 1784296724, "name": "gkmgkldfmg", "exit_checked": true}
+{"ts": 1784288939, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "token": "49357014671746556855560755614469742325519994297167600840929876681819057732694", "cond": "0xf9640023159d57007d91bf9f077c1bdedb11c2b9d9a26d750f7d3db79307ba39", "title": "Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner", "outcome": "Vici Gaming", "price": 0.42, "stake": 104.81, "reason": "order rejected: no orders found to match with FAK order (paper model: best a", "status": "sold", "pnl": 55.83, "settled": 1784289655, "name": "gkmgkldfmg", "exit_price": 0.6578}
diff --git a/copybot_rejects.jsonl b/copybot_rejects.jsonl
index e178a630..ba7a9d46 100644
--- a/copybot_rejects.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_rejects.jsonl
@@ -2232,3 +2232,8 @@
 {"ts": 1785828206.7, "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf", "token": "99775849082742006678255618741674853507940980485824699255477414108666428032877", "cond": "0x3f7795dbbd0653cbbcdc299a5e5253d9b6dde423dfb7a35458c7a3d3b42a5a22", "usd": 47.66, "price": 0.55, "reason": "$48 < conviction floor $379", "title": "LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785828363.5, "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "token": "111553181833064498826392503986204666618506464758854862941293751020051584226557", "cond": "0x3f8b782e8632e07b6d0ff364642fa22209566e9b6ac59df86fa36e29d641eb1a", "usd": 100.0, "price": 0.6407047378085274, "reason": "$100 < conviction floor $315", "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET", "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1785828363.7, "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "token": "111553181833064498826392503986204666618506464758854862941293751020051584226557", "cond": "0x3f8b782e8632e07b6d0ff364642fa22209566e9b6ac59df86fa36e29d641eb1a", "usd": 100.0, "price": 0.6436663233779609, "reason": "$100 < conviction floor $315", "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785829709.7, "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "token": "35343839566867605029580146592820648773544631944847264262470884930976184565914", "cond": "0x2a6d99925c0c5685388d0d121f98133c4599c8941c5f1dbf73f0cedf7ba4a34e", "usd": 5.0, "price": 0.0599999889599998, "reason": "$5 < conviction floor $315", "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785829709.9, "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "token": "35343839566867605029580146592820648773544631944847264262470884930976184565914", "cond": "0x2a6d99925c0c5685388d0d121f98133c4599c8941c5f1dbf73f0cedf7ba4a34e", "usd": 5.0, "price": 0.0540540540540541, "reason": "$5 < conviction floor $315", "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785830271.1, "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "token": "38037718441932122918352130421874477560676662376631948676117544041855311834429", "cond": "0x2e8570c7c984955367e8181be42ae61309083799720cd2c111f08435cf81eb9a", "usd": 100.0, "price": 0.5746426735342596, "reason": "$100 < conviction floor $315", "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785830271.1, "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "token": "38037718441932122918352130421874477560676662376631948676117544041855311834429", "cond": "0x2e8570c7c984955367e8181be42ae61309083799720cd2c111f08435cf81eb9a", "usd": 100.0, "price": 0.5362457429796114, "reason": "$100 < conviction floor $315", "title": "Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET", "mode": "paper"}
+{"ts": 1785830464.8, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "23992874013120161059297705278028365495902201450200091348182621448975466354706", "cond": "0xefb74b7ad07bc1233b5eec21dc96342f84d0b56434a0d2bbe1dfdaa1e85f8b2c", "usd": 24.0, "price": 0.3, "reason": "$24 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $132 in August?", "mode": "paper"}
diff --git a/copybot_state.json b/copybot_state.json
index ee2cd3f8..06cd914c 100644
--- a/copybot_state.json
+++ b/copybot_state.json
@@ -1,8 +1,6 @@
 {
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-    "0x83b424315e24427b80203253acd725bd62e6e093cbd6fe6ac273c11d6d1a272d",
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     "0xa5c75d7c4a45fc5ffeb5389dfa159d87e79288161c017a0598b682cd69a0506b",
@@ -5000,7 +4998,9 @@
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-    "0x494b4c9bbc469c09cca1df83bc5ec5bc267ba2aeccc77fd3672d96a9172e2072"
+    "0x494b4c9bbc469c09cca1df83bc5ec5bc267ba2aeccc77fd3672d96a9172e2072",
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@@ -7977,7 +7977,8 @@
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@@ -27819,6 +27460,366 @@
       "outcome": "Marcelina Podlinska",
       "wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb",
       "mode": "paper"
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+      "mode": "paper"
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+      "mode": "paper"
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+      "mode": "paper"
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+      "mode": "paper"
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+      "mode": "paper"
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+      "mode": "paper"
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+      "mode": "paper"
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+      "title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?",
+      "outcome": "No",
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+      "mode": "paper"
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+      "shares_held": 112.09,
+      "cost_held": 52.6,
+      "title": "Warsaw: Marcelina Podlinska vs Vendula Valdmannova",
+      "outcome": "Marcelina Podlinska",
+      "wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb",
+      "mode": "paper"
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   ]
 }
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/live/copybot_live.json b/live/copybot_live.json
index 13e886a4..20e9d124 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live.json
@@ -2158,6 +2158,21 @@
   }
  ],
  "missed": [
+  {
+   "ts": 1785830582,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "24637207133949609919399691173678761328784545323421628849922935609077566628235",
+   "cond": "0xf7c417ac2bf0888ac6d358131cab1de8797ed413e1899278b378a40a10cfc686",
+   "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $128 in August?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.47,
+   "stake": 7.0,
+   "reason": "maker bid unfilled (117s)",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
   {
    "ts": 1785828541,
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -3086,25 +3101,9 @@
    "name": "0xbadaf319",
    "exit_checked": true,
    "exit_price": 0.956
-  },
-  {
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-   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
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-   "cond": "0xc12ddf2480827eb5183af5ec33fc3a55d34a37ae9aa593929eb94bc7622be659",
-   "title": "Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on July 30?",
-   "outcome": "Yes",
-   "price": 0.9489,
-   "stake": 34.46,
-   "reason": "maker bid unfilled (66s)",
-   "status": "won",
-   "pnl": 1.8,
-   "settled": 1785443023,
-   "name": "0xbadaf319",
-   "exit_checked": true
   }
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- "missed_pnl": 21470.95,
+ "missed_pnl": 21415.12,
  "last_fill": {
   "ts": 1785809591,
   "side": "SELL",
@@ -3120,7 +3119,7 @@
    "wins": 36,
    "open_cost": 619.88,
    "open_n": 11,
-   "miss_n": 131,
+   "miss_n": 132,
    "miss_pnl": 112410.96,
    "last_ts": 1785809599
   },
@@ -3215,5 +3214,5 @@
    "last_ts": 0
   }
  },
- "updated": 1785828550
+ "updated": 1785830606
 }
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/live/copybot_live_full.json b/live/copybot_live_full.json
index fb906da4..ca6000a2 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live_full.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live_full.json
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
  "mode": "paper",
- "updated": 1785828550,
+ "updated": 1785830606,
  "wallet_pnl": {
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@@ -8,7 +8,7 @@
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    "open_cost": 619.88,
    "open_n": 11,
-   "miss_n": 131,
+   "miss_n": 132,
    "miss_pnl": 112410.96,
    "last_ts": 1785809599
   },
@@ -6999,6 +6999,21 @@
   }
  ],
  "missed": [
+  {
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+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "24637207133949609919399691173678761328784545323421628849922935609077566628235",
+   "cond": "0xf7c417ac2bf0888ac6d358131cab1de8797ed413e1899278b378a40a10cfc686",
+   "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $128 in August?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.47,
+   "stake": 7.0,
+   "reason": "maker bid unfilled (117s)",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
   {
    "ts": 1785828541,
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diff --git a/rtds_shadow.jsonl b/rtds_shadow.jsonl
index 9742c0c2..a4ae2e21 100644
--- a/rtds_shadow.jsonl
+++ b/rtds_shadow.jsonl
@@ -2484,3 +2484,10 @@
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