diff --git a/copybot_fills.jsonl b/copybot_fills.jsonl
index 06d4ceac..dbc2e015 100644
--- a/copybot_fills.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_fills.jsonl
@@ -458,3 +458,5 @@
 {"ts": 1784057183.7, "side": "SELL", "token": "47930487385442068307660985236580604031118404338161837203208216877292039014153", "shares": 2.0259, "price": 0.76, "fee": 0.0111, "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1784060459.6, "side": "SELL", "token": "47930487385442068307660985236580604031118404338161837203208216877292039014153", "shares": 1.0306, "price": 0.98, "fee": 0.0006, "mode": "paper"}
 {"ts": 1784063558.9, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "6237386819428750235511557154093150991879160039847931747938354455286350107208", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "", "title": "", "detect_lag_s": 0.9, "their_price": 0.9269, "my_price": 0.86, "slippage_pct": -0.0722, "shares": 10.8, "cost": 9.28, "fee": 0.039, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.86, "ba": 0.93, "spread": 0.07, "bid5c": 121.25, "ask5c": 92.84}}
+{"ts": 1784065067.1, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "31227781598316880280877760465683086508096359894740658336497080463300979927822", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "No", "title": "Over $55M committed to the Credible public sale?", "detect_lag_s": 2.1, "their_price": 0.89, "my_price": 0.88, "slippage_pct": -0.0112, "shares": 70.13, "cost": 61.72, "fee": 0.2222, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.88, "ba": 0.9, "spread": 0.02, "bid5c": 698.8, "ask5c": 617.15}}
+{"ts": 1784065069.7, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "31227781598316880280877760465683086508096359894740658336497080463300979927822", "name": "0xbadaf319", "outcome": "No", "title": "Over $55M committed to the Credible public sale?", "detect_lag_s": 0.7, "their_price": 0.8974, "my_price": 0.88, "slippage_pct": -0.0194, "shares": 38.28, "cost": 33.68, "fee": 0.1213, "mode": "paper", "book": {"bb": 0.88, "ba": 0.9, "spread": 0.02, "bid5c": 698.8, "ask5c": 578.37}}
diff --git a/copybot_state.json b/copybot_state.json
index a6bf8d06..9daf2298 100644
--- a/copybot_state.json
+++ b/copybot_state.json
@@ -1199,6 +1199,7 @@
     "0x0e340e7cd420505e0d63d99f0a30cc137e0982053b1f5c72dd8adb4995eb32dc",
     "0x5fda505610d9f9621e93d93b92230c9ca298d60f01131187689003ed5cb61d9a",
     "0x66c671cca088fcd7cbeb8b9644fc0256c1c6298a28a144a6185c1ccd23fd6c0f",
+    "0x0542dedf247d13bd21e6d83d9c0057d8fcb68d986aeb8e22bbaca24c604f7eb3",
     "0x82c95acbb7e607a29e41d6e8172a4628d27c869692c53f55c2f27e96e695aac4",
     "0x6901d1b9a21a9628ca5a55825357532112e172e347d764cb7ad691e51b4c0a97",
     "0xcbab65f98666ed388075632025d6e7b0392f14a2e181b6912c7d1b6d263f0e14",
@@ -1677,6 +1678,7 @@
     "0x67c1064762e6c6bbd524aa7f55c562f6a85c3c63acbb31f67d0f8538a91126a3",
     "0xf345babe5fb206a32fc1cf538971dbdf85cf21b9cc6650fde798ee8a738b2b66",
     "0xb6dad39cb39d2cc49894b96f88ed226ce4d11c7414309888876d10bad5a516e7",
+    "0xfbcdf9d0b6e13437f7fa3b361b9982baabddc440302e23236f6a51b802b5c1d8",
     "0x186cf44236a0756098b54f7bb99003d731130715f4dbb1b0d46003e5c78c382d",
     "0xa67d531f360d15d0dfdb3ab8f4ba98b4a2411061c0040c48c9db4acccd736314",
     "0xbacb5f9a972b7ffee6534c7d6adff00107ab399accee6aa8736a88b3251edb7f",
@@ -1823,6 +1825,7 @@
     "0x05d746c4532290ab53ac8b1e0d0727d2a7ab2a21d06cc5b5d646f7da994e3cef",
     "0xc330ba60c373509cf6bb5bf6af6d088e09b5b16e5c500f598d4deabb8abdd874",
     "0x77a408b0c05d305237f211271eafa34233682f9d57fa55577e8e8e4df5522465",
+    "0xde1f38c408b2debbc1f7e6d462ce547f98abd4a8e34ef6bc4027922c179c6f46",
     "0xa2e4b6d72df1a11c2c1e29634f011724623cba0773ee0c2ac4a7cfa08ad06338",
     "0xa3e997b0d0477a428a04efa94db14edb74990f88475aceea111946df4315a283",
     "0x3fd336a66ef88ad954f83538c31dcbd07e85f919ec024d20b9224c0994f8e5e4",
@@ -3728,6 +3731,7 @@
     "0xef1ea41e068ef87d6e6026301f2341d13bcaa76e66e0f5cd500e7fbb29ad2436",
     "0x8d1de7ab27d3328596bbea6a3aecf4b95a9272d791066be55a071f275415f1bd",
     "0x8ad397f6d04ff567c6391ff4b4313966316a410a3940414326c7e4376396b255",
+    "0xc11177b04c1f8feda0aef9cc7e472147c59c22c6616204d63e14e20c3a9cb47a",
     "0xa4b1a264d35f7dfabd8efe89a6df870bb8c18c633e7e1ec18fc1e83d2f14ef02",
     "0xfb1d79678a8434b6d89db81fe7a76a1580aa0b4354c6127244f2fe0787808c2a",
     "0xbdd0bec56fe9e805efa7ed116614e0e4b30d75d326be7feab816db35a48e4978",
@@ -3976,6 +3980,7 @@
     "0x5ff87624c0695c14b6c604a8787d2bd365708686a8b82c4e1e214a036fb873b7",
     "0x7c42119de655a407aa1ddeac1e263c439421c4a1286dcc732117263ebc9d5a88",
     "0x4e2ed09a4c64ead66b3b40302084a1110846cba069562ba22837ef192c37bd7d",
+    "0x0a2fa647125b4569c2413aedc9e4d77f4472d93a1c4285d0fff38f464d2c6c60",
     "0x5c2702ebc7dfd90d3b1cafb99f8b11ca15599f219552d6e5cea041dffbf31b9f",
     "0xf4006652c568c44b6444566f52f5c6ea642beda1ce48ffec6777b8157f09a8a5",
     "0xd3d1160abd4415b9831ace6b6fdcbb4dcd39cf4e88d521a84d60fe0d48505f35",
@@ -5832,7 +5837,9 @@
       "108233603819467706476318984012158651931658302669301887462181073562758483842092": 0.0,
       "45591566608359579716246223555007608631809663053876688212176430208340416341134": 0.0,
       "40620132921003620499978218824629607439455737973205403076497191102968846169914": 0.0,
-      "6237386819428750235511557154093150991879160039847931747938354455286350107208": 61.6559
+      "6237386819428750235511557154093150991879160039847931747938354455286350107208": 61.6559,
+      "31227781598316880280877760465683086508096359894740658336497080463300979927822": 190.672455,
+      "30391557537180421457039145828350223456919602174224995283508898368936895670600": 0.0
     },
     "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b": {
       "100468734153214358233990589631364606641061328246006529504204481849428608539045": 5322.2848,
@@ -9631,11 +9638,20 @@
       "event": null,
       "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
       "cond": ""
+    },
+    "31227781598316880280877760465683086508096359894740658336497080463300979927822": {
+      "shares": 108.40866468834892,
+      "cost": 95.39962492574705,
+      "title": "Over $55M committed to the Credible public sale?",
+      "outcome": "No",
+      "event": "total-commitments-for-the-credible-public-sale-on-metadao-20260708134325640",
+      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+      "cond": "0x89bc4921c2e0090c1ebe9c821e5ab77c329aca125cc65b4c3b6a1e95a3bb740c"
     }
   },
   "spend": {
     "date": "2026-07-14",
-    "usd": 947.1402299234078
+    "usd": 1042.5398548491548
   },
   "seeded": [
     "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41",
@@ -9736,15 +9752,16 @@
     "114408446604886353206911847633106829807018038464913763376714523293436793199652": "0x6afe2473bc068e6dcd842c3e2792c3b5e85fbec71b6112d86c648fe46e9014c2",
     "16167991169842969662552149172415147847102093356587677921265845709187217219794": "0x6afe2473bc068e6dcd842c3e2792c3b5e85fbec71b6112d86c648fe46e9014c2",
     "47930487385442068307660985236580604031118404338161837203208216877292039014153": "",
-    "6237386819428750235511557154093150991879160039847931747938354455286350107208": ""
+    "6237386819428750235511557154093150991879160039847931747938354455286350107208": "",
+    "31227781598316880280877760465683086508096359894740658336497080463300979927822": "0x89bc4921c2e0090c1ebe9c821e5ab77c329aca125cc65b4c3b6a1e95a3bb740c"
   },
-  "cash": 1888.3146088969393,
+  "cash": 1792.5715453214596,
   "lag": {
-    "n": 124,
-    "sum_s": 4495.045034170151,
-    "sum_slip_pct": -6.567672111560779
+    "n": 126,
+    "sum_s": 4497.921411275864,
+    "sum_slip_pct": -6.5982842224966065
   },
-  "fees_paid": 194.08697678121965,
+  "fees_paid": 194.43041543095234,
   "lag_recent": [
     [
       1783991965.0,
@@ -9825,6 +9842,16 @@
       1784063558.9,
       0.9,
       -0.07219
+    ],
+    [
+      1784065067.1,
+      2.1,
+      -0.01124
+    ],
+    [
+      1784065069.7,
+      0.7,
+      -0.01938
     ]
   ],
   "bets": {
@@ -12170,11 +12197,30 @@
       "exit_price": null,
       "pnl": null,
       "settled": null
+    },
+    "31227781598316880280877760465683086508096359894740658336497080463300979927822": {
+      "token": "31227781598316880280877760465683086508096359894740658336497080463300979927822",
+      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+      "name": "0xbadaf319",
+      "outcome": "No",
+      "title": "Over $55M committed to the Credible public sale?",
+      "their_price": 0.89,
+      "my_price": 0.8800516567124649,
+      "slippage_pct": -0.0112,
+      "lag_s": 2.1,
+      "shares": 108.40798287016707,
+      "cost": 95.40462492574704,
+      "fee": 0.3435,
+      "opened": 1784065065,
+      "status": "open",
+      "exit_price": null,
+      "pnl": null,
+      "settled": null
     }
   },
   "hwm": 2548.9580606723184,
-  "feed_sig": "85c78f9a8d13703e30ce4a2199ab6430",
-  "feed_pushed_at": 1784063526.5976713,
+  "feed_sig": "7a6a4af18a7a1835c94f2f81b406e3f3",
+  "feed_pushed_at": 1784065041.2523367,
   "missed": [
     {
       "ts": 1783590977,
@@ -13686,7 +13732,7 @@
     "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41": 1783900970,
     "0xd96750bf8d941a8186e592b0ae6e096da66aa266": 1783871702,
     "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb": 1784062124,
-    "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874": 1784061572,
+    "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874": 1784065072,
     "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b": 1784056888,
     "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf": 1783843568,
     "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343": 1784040013,
diff --git a/live/copybot_live.json b/live/copybot_live.json
index e6b22310..0b6f62a4 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live.json
@@ -1,24 +1,24 @@
 {
  "mode": "paper",
  "bankroll": 1000.0,
- "stake": 95.41,
+ "stake": 95.39,
  "stake_pct": 0.04,
  "event_cap": 0,
  "hwm": 2548.96,
- "cash": 1888.31,
- "deployed": 496.9,
+ "cash": 1792.57,
+ "deployed": 592.3,
  "reserve": 0.0,
- "realized": 1385.18,
+ "realized": 1384.84,
  "adjustments": 0.03,
- "ledger_drift": -0.03,
- "open_count": 12,
- "fees_paid": 194.09,
+ "ledger_drift": -0.02,
+ "open_count": 13,
+ "fees_paid": 194.43,
  "fee_rate": 0.03,
  "lag": {
-  "n": 124,
-  "n24": 16,
-  "avg_s": 3.4,
-  "avg_slip_pct": -0.0249,
+  "n": 126,
+  "n24": 18,
+  "avg_s": 3.2,
+  "avg_slip_pct": -0.0238,
   "window_h": 24
  },
  "wallets": [
@@ -43,6 +43,25 @@
   "BikesAreTheBikes": 120.82
  },
  "bets": [
+  {
+   "token": "31227781598316880280877760465683086508096359894740658336497080463300979927822",
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "title": "Over $55M committed to the Credible public sale?",
+   "their_price": 0.89,
+   "my_price": 0.8801,
+   "slippage_pct": -0.0112,
+   "lag_s": 2.1,
+   "shares": 108.41,
+   "cost": 95.4,
+   "fee": 0.34,
+   "opened": 1784065065,
+   "status": "open",
+   "exit_price": null,
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null
+  },
   {
    "token": "6237386819428750235511557154093150991879160039847931747938354455286350107208",
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -2003,26 +2022,6 @@
    "settled": 1783623035,
    "sold_shares": 128.87,
    "sold_proceeds": 85.49
-  },
-  {
-   "token": "5331398174498187031334378168888081929069329815866835423456661839681650230348",
-   "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",
-   "name": "gkmgkldfmg",
-   "outcome": "1win",
-   "title": "Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs 1win - Game 1 Winner",
-   "their_price": 0.6232,
-   "my_price": 0.65,
-   "slippage_pct": 0.0431,
-   "shares": 118.96,
-   "cost": 77.32,
-   "fee": 0.81,
-   "opened": 1783622674,
-   "status": "closed",
-   "exit_price": 0.6568,
-   "pnl": -0.01,
-   "settled": 1783622836,
-   "sold_shares": 118.96,
-   "sold_proceeds": 78.13
   }
  ],
  "missed": [
@@ -2984,5 +2983,5 @@
   }
  ],
  "missed_pnl": 89696.33,
- "updated": 1784063561
+ "updated": 1784065072
 }
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/rtds_shadow.jsonl b/rtds_shadow.jsonl
index cab6911f..9efa3e68 100644
--- a/rtds_shadow.jsonl
+++ b/rtds_shadow.jsonl
@@ -2081,3 +2081,11 @@
 {"ts": 1784062126.2, "trade_ts": 1784062126, "lat_s": 0.2, "wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb", "name": "Kruto2027", "side": "BUY", "size": 5, "price": 0.33, "title": "", "tx": "0x8f1d7c87341af927b9f92545c74ac758824dded926c56678036c7ddf0d921da3", "seen": false}
 {"ts": 1784063558.69, "trade_ts": 1784063558, "lat_s": 0.69, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "BUY", "size": 61.6559, "price": 0.9269183808848788, "title": "", "tx": "0x133ef5c74e9bd495b15259f91bbbf959e862f1da99dba2dbc1d563c98379b9e9", "seen": false}
 {"ts": 1784063558.92, "trade_ts": 1784063558, "lat_s": 0.92, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "BUY", "size": 30.79, "price": 0.04, "title": "", "tx": "0x0e540a92456dc39fcfc098c71a7697dcae296727100c5d577662481f4ac463c1", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1784065065.09, "trade_ts": 1784065064, "lat_s": 1.09, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "BUY", "size": 74.666665, "price": 0.0593303450743381, "title": "", "tx": "0x5ca20a3bc0a240cecede137da5fd518af5ba91180285c7ec98066551da871e17", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1784065065.17, "trade_ts": 1784065065, "lat_s": 0.17, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "BUY", "size": 63.921345, "price": 0.8899999992177887, "title": "Over $55M committed to the Credible public sale?", "tx": "0xc11177b04c1f8feda0aef9cc7e472147c59c22c6616204d63e14e20c3a9cb47a", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1784065069.58, "trade_ts": 1784065069, "lat_s": 0.58, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "BUY", "size": 63.55111, "price": 0.8973879291801512, "title": "Over $55M committed to the Credible public sale?", "tx": "0xfbcdf9d0b6e13437f7fa3b361b9982baabddc440302e23236f6a51b802b5c1d8", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1784065069.78, "trade_ts": 1784065069, "lat_s": 0.78, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "BUY", "size": 73.166665, "price": 0.0599999876993163, "title": "", "tx": "0x95469b480693885d6f218964155948a4b85ed1364e9bbf9889fbad765479ef6a", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1784065072.13, "trade_ts": 1784065072, "lat_s": 0.13, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "BUY", "size": 63.2, "price": 0.9, "title": "Over $55M committed to the Credible public sale?", "tx": "0x0542dedf247d13bd21e6d83d9c0057d8fcb68d986aeb8e22bbaca24c604f7eb3", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1784065072.47, "trade_ts": 1784065072, "lat_s": 0.47, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "BUY", "size": 73, "price": 0.06, "title": "", "tx": "0xa6227a6c1bd87cf537fe9b5d949ea9f591228510e293a024c71fb38d9e437acb", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1784065140.7, "trade_ts": 1784065140, "lat_s": 0.7, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "SELL", "size": 22.27, "price": 0.06, "title": "Over $70M committed to the Credible public sale?", "tx": "0xde1f38c408b2debbc1f7e6d462ce547f98abd4a8e34ef6bc4027922c179c6f46", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1784065140.79, "trade_ts": 1784065140, "lat_s": 0.79, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "SELL", "size": 20.39, "price": 0.95, "title": "Over $75M committed to the Credible public sale?", "tx": "0x0a2fa647125b4569c2413aedc9e4d77f4472d93a1c4285d0fff38f464d2c6c60", "seen": false}