From dd14eb405490b74a39f9914cf34a620c5625faa1 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: jaxperro Date: Mon, 27 Jul 2026 19:25:13 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] HANDOFF: live bot paused 2026-07-27 + the 5-share-minimum finding that motivated it Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 --- HANDOFF.md | 21 +++++++++++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 21 insertions(+) diff --git a/HANDOFF.md b/HANDOFF.md index 8d79d7c8..58b812f0 100644 --- a/HANDOFF.md +++ b/HANDOFF.md @@ -41,6 +41,27 @@ LIVE 2026-07-24 @d4fff27), #25 Study E position-scope conviction rolling net-USD aggregate; flip = operator's call). #18 (empty-cond copies unsettleable) closed same day: RTDS seed enrichment + falsy-cond repair pass + 1h alarm. +## LIVE BOT PAUSED (user, 2026-07-27) +`LIVE_CONFIRM` UNSET — wwf-copybot-live reboots into `geocheck --idle` +(no clone, no book, no orders). Key + funder secrets untouched; re-arm = +`flyctl secrets set LIVE_CONFIRM="TRADE LIVE" -a wwf-copybot-live`. +State at pause: book $48.55 · $22.48 free · 15 open ($26.07, five at +93-98c) · realized −$27.31. Open positions now ride to resolution +UNMANAGED (no >=90c band exits; platform auto-redeems winners). /live +feed is frozen at this state until re-armed. + +**WHY it was paused — the finding that triggered it:** Polymarket enforces +a **5-share minimum per order** ("Size (1.47) lower than the minimum: 5"). +That is a PRICE-dependent dollar floor: at the book's $1 braked stake +(4% of $48.55, halved by the drawdown brake, floored to the $1 venue +min) only <=20c markets are reachable, so every 40-90c signal fired an +order that could not succeed — 25 venue rejections in 3 days, while 204 +other signals were correctly floor-rejected as sub-conviction. Fixed at +the gate (copytrade.MIN_SHARES=5.0 blocks with the shares/dollars +needed instead of firing doomed orders), but the CAPITAL fact stands: +**~$113 equity at 4%, or ~$225 under the drawdown brake, is the minimum +viable size to trade 90c markets.** Sizing/funding is the USER's call. + ## Operating boundary (user, 2026-07-13 — standing) **Full autonomy on the bots**; the real-money bot **stays ARMED**. Never touch the private key, Discord alerts webhook ROTATED 2026-07-19 (#3 closed),