From dbfc77bfe3111a4bd40ed0a22f3555e6e89a0e8d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: jaxperro Date: Mon, 27 Jul 2026 11:26:40 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] =?UTF-8?q?live:=20daily=20refresh=20=E2=80=94=20skilled?= =?UTF-8?q?=20+=20sharp=20wallets=20[skip=20ci]?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit --- live/conviction_wallets.json | 136 +- live/dashboard.html | 14 +- live/portfolio.json | 2 +- live/portfolio_follow.json | 2 +- live/portfolio_follow_missed.json | 2 +- live/portfolio_live_replica.json | 2 +- live/portfolio_missed.json | 2 +- live/watch_sharps.json | 1960 ++++++++++++++--------------- live/watch_skilled.json | 588 ++++----- 9 files changed, 1313 insertions(+), 1395 deletions(-) diff --git a/live/conviction_wallets.json b/live/conviction_wallets.json index 342b25d7..141c711d 100644 --- a/live/conviction_wallets.json +++ b/live/conviction_wallets.json @@ -37,9 +37,9 @@ "med_stake": 9800, "avg_entry": 0.46, "train_n": 79, - "fwd_win": 96.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": 1.015, - "fwd_n": 27 + "fwd_win": 96.4, + "fwd_conv_roi": 1.018, + "fwd_n": 28 }, { "wallet": "0x72e1597864456eda62878413cf3e60c332e4a45d", @@ -51,9 +51,9 @@ "med_stake": 474, "avg_entry": 0.52, "train_n": 322, - "fwd_win": 99.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": 1.06, - "fwd_n": 277 + "fwd_win": 99.4, + "fwd_conv_roi": 1.075, + "fwd_n": 308 }, { "wallet": "0xc78cdeb598f0bb8bae62a80e8134e842b3c44455", @@ -223,6 +223,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0x8e9eedf20dfa70956d49f608a205e402d9df38e4", + "name": "0x8e9eedf2", + "train_win": 70.9, + "train_conv_roi": 0.536, + "train_z": 5.14, + "z_all": 13.37, + "med_stake": 3502, + "avg_entry": 0.62, + "train_n": 351, + "fwd_win": 82.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.414, + "fwd_n": 122 + }, { "wallet": "0xc0fd10b1ad1202e9bcfb920c88c4d0af7cc3d036", "name": "0xc0fd10b1", @@ -279,20 +293,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.126, "fwd_n": 316 }, - { - "wallet": "0x8e9eedf20dfa70956d49f608a205e402d9df38e4", - "name": "0x8e9eedf2", - "train_win": 70.9, - "train_conv_roi": 0.437, - "train_z": 4.99, - "z_all": 13.36, - "med_stake": 3505, - "avg_entry": 0.62, - "train_n": 350, - "fwd_win": 82.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.414, - "fwd_n": 122 - }, { "wallet": "0xdf1ea9bb646c07f0c3d5cf08d34d76f891095d9b", "name": "0xdf1ea9bb", @@ -367,9 +367,9 @@ "wallet": "0xe542afd3881c4c330ba0ebbb603bb470b2ba0a37", "name": "0xe542afd3", "train_win": 68.4, - "train_conv_roi": 0.378, - "train_z": 7.97, - "z_all": 14.61, + "train_conv_roi": 0.379, + "train_z": 7.98, + "z_all": 14.63, "med_stake": 841, "avg_entry": 0.54, "train_n": 484, @@ -377,6 +377,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.26, "fwd_n": 210 }, + { + "wallet": "0x2f53f2d2424d6592bce3d2522b048f6d542ad5ab", + "name": "0x2f53f2d2", + "train_win": 73.7, + "train_conv_roi": 0.37, + "train_z": 1.85, + "z_all": 2.42, + "med_stake": 53, + "avg_entry": 0.53, + "train_n": 19, + "fwd_win": 54.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.028, + "fwd_n": 111 + }, { "wallet": "0x88ad3166c6cce6a1bf732050749089273252a1f3", "name": "0x88ad3166", @@ -401,9 +415,9 @@ "med_stake": 138, "avg_entry": 0.56, "train_n": 72, - "fwd_win": 70.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.193, - "fwd_n": 273 + "fwd_win": 70.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.179, + "fwd_n": 280 }, { "wallet": "0x82d2e4dbb0a849ff8e2f5380719769145648beea", @@ -485,9 +499,9 @@ "med_stake": 117, "avg_entry": 0.54, "train_n": 71, - "fwd_win": 56.6, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.036, - "fwd_n": 53 + "fwd_win": 54.9, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.005, + "fwd_n": 71 }, { "wallet": "0x460d15ce9258fb8ce6a94d984574598d2f1c9d5f", @@ -523,7 +537,7 @@ "train_win": 89.6, "train_conv_roi": 0.271, "train_z": 3.09, - "z_all": 2.21, + "z_all": 2.22, "med_stake": 131, "avg_entry": 0.72, "train_n": 48, @@ -569,9 +583,9 @@ "med_stake": 165, "avg_entry": 0.65, "train_n": 35, - "fwd_win": 82.4, - "fwd_conv_roi": 1.024, - "fwd_n": 17 + "fwd_win": 83.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": 1.02, + "fwd_n": 18 }, { "wallet": "0x098eddabb2d388f31e79aaf525e49588f22a6fa2", @@ -579,7 +593,7 @@ "train_win": 81.2, "train_conv_roi": 0.23, "train_z": 3.76, - "z_all": 3.84, + "z_all": 3.96, "med_stake": 231, "avg_entry": 0.68, "train_n": 112, @@ -611,9 +625,9 @@ "med_stake": 355, "avg_entry": 0.71, "train_n": 166, - "fwd_win": 66.4, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.324, - "fwd_n": 217 + "fwd_win": 66.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.318, + "fwd_n": 222 }, { "wallet": "0x753e554feb327f9d4f7bff8a6ebdced98fbd2046", @@ -747,7 +761,7 @@ "train_win": 65.6, "train_conv_roi": 0.189, "train_z": 3.16, - "z_all": 2.62, + "z_all": 2.69, "med_stake": 100, "avg_entry": 0.55, "train_n": 224, @@ -831,7 +845,7 @@ "train_win": 77.0, "train_conv_roi": 0.17, "train_z": 3.81, - "z_all": 4.17, + "z_all": 4.22, "med_stake": 938, "avg_entry": 0.67, "train_n": 248, @@ -1087,9 +1101,9 @@ "med_stake": 1410, "avg_entry": 0.58, "train_n": 255, - "fwd_win": 61.9, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.281, - "fwd_n": 189 + "fwd_win": 62.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.291, + "fwd_n": 191 }, { "wallet": "0x9c5ee2dbc061988546414f0ef376c430c56287da", @@ -1125,7 +1139,7 @@ "train_win": 76.9, "train_conv_roi": 0.113, "train_z": 2.4, - "z_all": 2.94, + "z_all": 2.91, "med_stake": 6650, "avg_entry": 0.7, "train_n": 225, @@ -1273,20 +1287,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0x60a92c8620846d81f5ea17b0564e0d4b7c545a71", - "name": "0x60a92c86", - "train_win": 77.2, - "train_conv_roi": 0.089, - "train_z": 1.97, - "z_all": 2.0, - "med_stake": 5599, - "avg_entry": 0.7, - "train_n": 123, - "fwd_win": 70.6, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.023, - "fwd_n": 68 - }, { "wallet": "0x3746dc1ec0dc01352dc141b310e5da81fd7ea99f", "name": "0x3746dc1e", @@ -1315,6 +1315,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.021, "fwd_n": 100 }, + { + "wallet": "0x51f7c3d9fa8cc71818aede2db6e4496968ecae1f", + "name": "0x51f7c3d9", + "train_win": 72.1, + "train_conv_roi": 0.074, + "train_z": 1.78, + "z_all": 3.5, + "med_stake": 200, + "avg_entry": 0.67, + "train_n": 208, + "fwd_win": 66.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.115, + "fwd_n": 168 + }, { "wallet": "0x87909a89ee551c8616e5bff9089c81545bfd010b", "name": "0x87909a89", @@ -1409,9 +1423,9 @@ "med_stake": 799, "avg_entry": 0.65, "train_n": 259, - "fwd_win": 55.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.083, - "fwd_n": 60 + "fwd_win": 53.2, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.113, + "fwd_n": 62 }, { "wallet": "0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124", @@ -1467,7 +1481,7 @@ "train_n": 361, "fwd_win": null, "fwd_conv_roi": null, - "fwd_n": 0 + "fwd_n": 1 }, { "wallet": "0x83e8723ff456f79445192be823761a4d67517b89", diff --git a/live/dashboard.html b/live/dashboard.html index 7da09a52..48af83bf 100644 --- a/live/dashboard.html +++ b/live/dashboard.html @@ -36,13 +36,13 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de .b{color:var(--green)}.s{color:var(--red)}

Skilled Wallets · Polymarket

-

63 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-25 14:13

+

55 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-27 11:26

-
Validated wallets
63
-
Median z
4.3
-
Median OOS z
3.1
-
Value / longshot
46
-
Favorite-rider
8
+
Validated wallets
55
+
Median z
4.4
+
Median OOS z
2.9
+
Value / longshot
42
+
Favorite-rider
6
@@ -68,7 +68,7 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de

How to read it. z = how far the wallet beat the prices it paid (skill; >3 is strong). OOS z = whether that skill held on held-out bets — the gate that separates real edge from luck. Alpha 0.2–0.4 = share of bets in the underdog value zone where research finds real edge concentrates. Value wallets win by beating longshot/mid prices (the copyable alpha); Favorite-rider wallets post high win rates buying near-certain favorites (real but thin, hard to copy). Click any row for live recent trades. Not financial advice — split-half OOS, forward-track before sizing.