diff --git a/copybot_state.json b/copybot_state.json
index 1264eae9..58f6ee16 100644
--- a/copybot_state.json
+++ b/copybot_state.json
@@ -11146,15 +11146,6 @@
       "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
       "cond": "0xd5dd1a5398c0b428035211c83348af8b97d2b31f72cf198bdbadcfb3538ca2d4"
     },
-    "6467608425341586311851272664218259937970959338795566500089367688884232468049": {
-      "shares": 127.87555555555558,
-      "cost": 57.54400000000001,
-      "title": "Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?",
-      "outcome": "No",
-      "event": "elon-musk-of-tweets-july-14-july-21",
-      "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
-      "cond": "0xae1487538bcad78d92f32c3d784c34b67f8026ce680b8b15582fb16f456d9823"
-    },
     "48409467751286486665938959009701710014426367960633333378105361988315138136571": {
       "shares": 69.34362458836443,
       "cost": 63.172042000000005,
@@ -11321,7 +11312,6 @@
     "107519224001054263439274706964696866987866557807915774909819079291264377299291": "0x2621f174955892ef32bcabd62ae74d1e14530f0585527322fdf2d2cb7e41c27a",
     "69255676899700790711525989127308958019475795404138315524495668898066870353801": "0xd5dd1a5398c0b428035211c83348af8b97d2b31f72cf198bdbadcfb3538ca2d4",
     "6457952357077230044054791268159160058712529625831041550558183767114352456975": "0xfee05d2895f91982e5700e8786ee7c8195c49662903e59511f7a835443b2b99a",
-    "6467608425341586311851272664218259937970959338795566500089367688884232468049": "0xae1487538bcad78d92f32c3d784c34b67f8026ce680b8b15582fb16f456d9823",
     "48409467751286486665938959009701710014426367960633333378105361988315138136571": "0x8b91575b3262ba75bb38b8b531afe2b96fb7adc2efc23875109275c7c0747e3b",
     "91676177432668319691663213694187810112009835951397620031461215327421238319426": "0xa0192d11031455f486dd13d43438c815e5ba135e2595039991a7d09a6b438989",
     "20484110521571350875001435184260822941122652573371898844393462992759163157997": "0xb21d4b44e3ea95538a40c635241b96d4560e38791a2ab14e34d7dd90cacd0c72",
@@ -15147,10 +15137,10 @@
       "cost": 57.54,
       "fee": 0.9495,
       "opened": 1784586251,
-      "status": "open",
-      "exit_price": null,
-      "pnl": null,
-      "settled": null
+      "status": "lost",
+      "exit_price": 0.0,
+      "pnl": -58.49,
+      "settled": 1784658052
     },
     "48409467751286486665938959009701710014426367960633333378105361988315138136571": {
       "token": "48409467751286486665938959009701710014426367960633333378105361988315138136571",
@@ -15255,8 +15245,8 @@
     }
   },
   "hwm": 2849.150445045735,
-  "feed_sig": "e2bfc039b9af2d30d31d5dc58d603ae1",
-  "feed_pushed_at": 1784655209.624618,
+  "feed_sig": "605eb9f7d848dd9b15a18a1f5be940f4",
+  "feed_pushed_at": 1784657990.6568844,
   "missed": [
     {
       "ts": 1783590977,
@@ -17818,7 +17808,8 @@
       "reason": "not copied in the detection window (reconciled)",
       "status": "open",
       "pnl": null,
-      "settled": null
+      "settled": null,
+      "name": "0xbadaf319"
     }
   ],
   "no_miss_toks": [
diff --git a/live/copybot_live.json b/live/copybot_live.json
index 5a59d363..3a6a31ae 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live.json
@@ -1,17 +1,17 @@
 {
  "mode": "paper",
  "bankroll": 1000.0,
- "stake": 112.63,
+ "stake": 110.33,
  "stake_pct": 0.04,
  "event_cap": 0,
  "hwm": 2849.15,
  "cash": 1803.07,
- "deployed": 1012.64,
+ "deployed": 955.1,
  "reserve": 0.0,
- "realized": 1815.68,
+ "realized": 1758.14,
  "adjustments": 0.03,
  "ledger_drift": -0.02,
- "open_count": 17,
+ "open_count": 16,
  "fees_paid": 324.18,
  "fee_rate": 0.03,
  "lag": {
@@ -46,6 +46,25 @@
   "AIcAIc": 344.56
  },
  "bets": [
+  {
+   "token": "6467608425341586311851272664218259937970959338795566500089367688884232468049",
+   "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
+   "name": "BikesAreTheBikes",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "title": "Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?",
+   "their_price": 0.43,
+   "my_price": 0.45,
+   "slippage_pct": 0.0465,
+   "lag_s": 5.1,
+   "shares": 127.88,
+   "cost": 57.54,
+   "fee": 0.95,
+   "opened": 1784586251,
+   "status": "lost",
+   "exit_price": 0.0,
+   "pnl": -58.49,
+   "settled": 1784658052
+  },
   {
    "token": "48393982087831129899183531478832099653074965669965652679356454634407980114693",
    "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",
@@ -206,25 +225,6 @@
    "pnl": null,
    "settled": null
   },
-  {
-   "token": "6467608425341586311851272664218259937970959338795566500089367688884232468049",
-   "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
-   "name": "BikesAreTheBikes",
-   "outcome": "No",
-   "title": "Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?",
-   "their_price": 0.43,
-   "my_price": 0.45,
-   "slippage_pct": 0.0465,
-   "lag_s": 5.1,
-   "shares": 127.88,
-   "cost": 57.54,
-   "fee": 0.95,
-   "opened": 1784586251,
-   "status": "open",
-   "exit_price": null,
-   "pnl": null,
-   "settled": null
-  },
   {
    "token": "6457952357077230044054791268159160058712529625831041550558183767114352456975",
    "wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb",
@@ -3105,13 +3105,13 @@
    "last_ts": 1784472579
   },
   "BikesAreTheBikes": {
-   "realized": 58.32,
-   "n": 5,
+   "realized": -0.17,
+   "n": 6,
    "wins": 1,
-   "open_cost": 659.73,
-   "open_n": 8,
-   "last_ts": 1784649072
+   "open_cost": 602.19,
+   "open_n": 7,
+   "last_ts": 1784658052
   }
  },
- "updated": 1784657990
+ "updated": 1784658056
 }
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/live/copybot_live_full.json b/live/copybot_live_full.json
index 9c30a8e4..dd728189 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live_full.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live_full.json
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
  "mode": "paper",
- "updated": 1784657990,
+ "updated": 1784658056,
  "wallet_pnl": {
   "0xbadaf319": {
    "realized": 537.11,
@@ -51,15 +51,34 @@
    "last_ts": 1784472579
   },
   "BikesAreTheBikes": {
-   "realized": 58.32,
-   "n": 5,
+   "realized": -0.17,
+   "n": 6,
    "wins": 1,
-   "open_cost": 659.73,
-   "open_n": 8,
-   "last_ts": 1784649072
+   "open_cost": 602.19,
+   "open_n": 7,
+   "last_ts": 1784658052
   }
  },
  "bets": [
+  {
+   "token": "6467608425341586311851272664218259937970959338795566500089367688884232468049",
+   "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
+   "name": "BikesAreTheBikes",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "title": "Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?",
+   "their_price": 0.43,
+   "my_price": 0.45,
+   "slippage_pct": 0.0465,
+   "lag_s": 5.1,
+   "shares": 127.88,
+   "cost": 57.54,
+   "fee": 0.9495,
+   "opened": 1784586251,
+   "status": "lost",
+   "exit_price": 0.0,
+   "pnl": -58.49,
+   "settled": 1784658052
+  },
   {
    "token": "48393982087831129899183531478832099653074965669965652679356454634407980114693",
    "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",
@@ -220,25 +239,6 @@
    "pnl": null,
    "settled": null
   },
-  {
-   "token": "6467608425341586311851272664218259937970959338795566500089367688884232468049",
-   "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
-   "name": "BikesAreTheBikes",
-   "outcome": "No",
-   "title": "Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?",
-   "their_price": 0.43,
-   "my_price": 0.45,
-   "slippage_pct": 0.0465,
-   "lag_s": 5.1,
-   "shares": 127.88,
-   "cost": 57.54,
-   "fee": 0.9495,
-   "opened": 1784586251,
-   "status": "open",
-   "exit_price": null,
-   "pnl": null,
-   "settled": null
-  },
   {
    "token": "6457952357077230044054791268159160058712529625831041550558183767114352456975",
    "wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb",