From cd0c22be913e3131c96a00dee57d3494c90c0da5 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: jaxperro Date: Wed, 5 Aug 2026 12:50:42 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] =?UTF-8?q?live:=20daily=20refresh=20=E2=80=94=20skilled?= =?UTF-8?q?=20+=20sharp=20wallets=20[skip=20ci]?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit --- history/reconcile.csv | 1 + live/conviction_wallets.json | 304 ++--- live/dashboard.html | 12 +- live/portfolio.json | 2 +- live/portfolio_follow.json | 2 +- live/portfolio_follow_missed.json | 2 +- live/portfolio_live_replica.json | 2 +- live/portfolio_missed.json | 2 +- live/watch_sharps.json | 2016 +++++++++++++++-------------- live/watch_skilled.json | 344 ++--- 10 files changed, 1381 insertions(+), 1306 deletions(-) diff --git a/history/reconcile.csv b/history/reconcile.csv index 8e1c599d..a2d2b902 100644 --- a/history/reconcile.csv +++ b/history/reconcile.csv @@ -7,3 +7,4 @@ date,live_bt_ev,live_fill_gap,live_filled_ev,live_filled_n,live_missed_ev,live_m 2026-08-02,-447,22,226,6,-92,12,-27.31,-132,4,-449,22,44,-447,76,-120,16,-172,13,-340,7,185,8,48.98 2026-08-03,4843,-27,279,26,1133,76,-27.31,-117,9,3548,219,330,4843,-5,288,88,940,101,362,31,3253,110,104.43 2026-08-04,4550,-24,179,27,1133,76,-27.31,-117,9,3355,224,336,4550,-1,260,91,696,105,162,33,3431,107,95.6 +2026-08-05,6284,-28,173,26,1099,75,-27.31,-117,9,5129,248,358,6284,14,23,95,2267,111,364,40,3631,112,113.86 diff --git a/live/conviction_wallets.json b/live/conviction_wallets.json index 5b9854f1..f7f3967a 100644 --- a/live/conviction_wallets.json +++ b/live/conviction_wallets.json @@ -33,13 +33,13 @@ "train_win": 100.0, "train_conv_roi": 1.249, "train_z": 9.66, - "z_all": 20.89, + "z_all": 20.92, "med_stake": 9800, "avg_entry": 0.46, "train_n": 79, - "fwd_win": 96.9, - "fwd_conv_roi": 1.063, - "fwd_n": 32 + "fwd_win": 97.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": 1.064, + "fwd_n": 33 }, { "wallet": "0x72e1597864456eda62878413cf3e60c332e4a45d", @@ -51,9 +51,9 @@ "med_stake": 474, "avg_entry": 0.52, "train_n": 322, - "fwd_win": 98.6, - "fwd_conv_roi": 1.049, - "fwd_n": 360 + "fwd_win": 98.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 1.045, + "fwd_n": 388 }, { "wallet": "0xc78cdeb598f0bb8bae62a80e8134e842b3c44455", @@ -265,6 +265,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", + "name": "0xbadaf319", + "train_win": 78.3, + "train_conv_roi": 0.485, + "train_z": 3.93, + "z_all": 4.76, + "med_stake": 67, + "avg_entry": 0.6, + "train_n": 83, + "fwd_win": 80.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.152, + "fwd_n": 428 + }, { "wallet": "0x9def39cb6f7f37a9bdd91c444e4c200778576eac", "name": "0x9def39cb", @@ -279,20 +293,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.028, "fwd_n": 169 }, - { - "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", - "name": "0xbadaf319", - "train_win": 77.1, - "train_conv_roi": 0.454, - "train_z": 3.67, - "z_all": 4.52, - "med_stake": 67, - "avg_entry": 0.6, - "train_n": 83, - "fwd_win": 80.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.148, - "fwd_n": 421 - }, { "wallet": "0xdf1ea9bb646c07f0c3d5cf08d34d76f891095d9b", "name": "0xdf1ea9bb", @@ -366,13 +366,13 @@ { "wallet": "0xe542afd3881c4c330ba0ebbb603bb470b2ba0a37", "name": "0xe542afd3", - "train_win": 68.4, - "train_conv_roi": 0.378, - "train_z": 7.97, - "z_all": 14.59, - "med_stake": 841, + "train_win": 68.5, + "train_conv_roi": 0.38, + "train_z": 8.02, + "z_all": 14.62, + "med_stake": 838, "avg_entry": 0.54, - "train_n": 484, + "train_n": 485, "fwd_win": 54.5, "fwd_conv_roi": 0.285, "fwd_n": 231 @@ -429,9 +429,9 @@ "med_stake": 138, "avg_entry": 0.56, "train_n": 72, - "fwd_win": 69.6, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.165, - "fwd_n": 313 + "fwd_win": 69.8, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.17, + "fwd_n": 315 }, { "wallet": "0x82d2e4dbb0a849ff8e2f5380719769145648beea", @@ -443,9 +443,9 @@ "med_stake": 2450, "avg_entry": 0.56, "train_n": 134, - "fwd_win": 60.4, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.13, - "fwd_n": 260 + "fwd_win": 59.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.104, + "fwd_n": 300 }, { "wallet": "0xc904211fd4412d5caa0b51f923304bf5e1821e9a", @@ -485,9 +485,9 @@ "med_stake": 400, "avg_entry": 0.57, "train_n": 288, - "fwd_win": 54.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.24, - "fwd_n": 362 + "fwd_win": 55.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.259, + "fwd_n": 365 }, { "wallet": "0xf6099a9eacfef24a4161bd857fbfbcd36cdfe68b", @@ -513,9 +513,9 @@ "med_stake": 117, "avg_entry": 0.54, "train_n": 71, - "fwd_win": 53.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.067, - "fwd_n": 117 + "fwd_win": 54.2, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.07, + "fwd_n": 142 }, { "wallet": "0x460d15ce9258fb8ce6a94d984574598d2f1c9d5f", @@ -605,15 +605,15 @@ "wallet": "0x098eddabb2d388f31e79aaf525e49588f22a6fa2", "name": "0x098eddab", "train_win": 81.2, - "train_conv_roi": 0.236, - "train_z": 3.81, + "train_conv_roi": 0.228, + "train_z": 3.74, "z_all": 3.88, "med_stake": 221, "avg_entry": 0.68, "train_n": 112, - "fwd_win": 74.2, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.123, - "fwd_n": 66 + "fwd_win": 73.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.107, + "fwd_n": 67 }, { "wallet": "0x1f2ea878eece1493f887f6ad99fd41cbe68a1730", @@ -639,9 +639,9 @@ "med_stake": 355, "avg_entry": 0.71, "train_n": 166, - "fwd_win": 67.4, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.299, - "fwd_n": 236 + "fwd_win": 67.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.286, + "fwd_n": 240 }, { "wallet": "0x753e554feb327f9d4f7bff8a6ebdced98fbd2046", @@ -681,9 +681,9 @@ "med_stake": 220, "avg_entry": 0.66, "train_n": 106, - "fwd_win": 77.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.151, - "fwd_n": 61 + "fwd_win": 77.4, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.155, + "fwd_n": 62 }, { "wallet": "0xe0b311527157158117b34bb5841dcb45602c4132", @@ -723,9 +723,23 @@ "med_stake": 355, "avg_entry": 0.74, "train_n": 288, - "fwd_win": 87.2, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.121, - "fwd_n": 500 + "fwd_win": 86.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.113, + "fwd_n": 510 + }, + { + "wallet": "0x93164f2f061f931cd4d549834d657bb342ffc00c", + "name": "0x93164f2f", + "train_win": 65.8, + "train_conv_roi": 0.196, + "train_z": 3.24, + "z_all": 2.69, + "med_stake": 100, + "avg_entry": 0.55, + "train_n": 225, + "fwd_win": 100.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.457, + "fwd_n": 3 }, { "wallet": "0x0c3e55cf50a00a7e74fabd8584c6fdde21603c4c", @@ -737,9 +751,9 @@ "med_stake": 449, "avg_entry": 0.64, "train_n": 234, - "fwd_win": 72.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.046, - "fwd_n": 621 + "fwd_win": 72.9, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.047, + "fwd_n": 631 }, { "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", @@ -755,20 +769,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.007, "fwd_n": 393 }, - { - "wallet": "0x93164f2f061f931cd4d549834d657bb342ffc00c", - "name": "0x93164f2f", - "train_win": 65.6, - "train_conv_roi": 0.189, - "train_z": 3.16, - "z_all": 2.76, - "med_stake": 100, - "avg_entry": 0.55, - "train_n": 224, - "fwd_win": null, - "fwd_conv_roi": null, - "fwd_n": 1 - }, { "wallet": "0x3eff118d4bc1742903d9516edf2e3c991600ae12", "name": "0x3eff118d", @@ -793,9 +793,9 @@ "med_stake": 488, "avg_entry": 0.66, "train_n": 139, - "fwd_win": 71.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.24, - "fwd_n": 293 + "fwd_win": 71.2, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.236, + "fwd_n": 295 }, { "wallet": "0x98a5dfa64a24be313adebf9a2c052411f04fd074", @@ -807,9 +807,9 @@ "med_stake": 148, "avg_entry": 0.54, "train_n": 53, - "fwd_win": 54.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.166, - "fwd_n": 31 + "fwd_win": 56.2, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.169, + "fwd_n": 32 }, { "wallet": "0x12f93b2a5cd5d370e2e2772246c3c7ceed7774ba", @@ -825,20 +825,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.021, "fwd_n": 226 }, - { - "wallet": "0xc684828f6b03487759ced2ebdd975f91f3532228", - "name": "0xc684828f", - "train_win": 77.1, - "train_conv_roi": 0.171, - "train_z": 3.85, - "z_all": 4.23, - "med_stake": 929, - "avg_entry": 0.67, - "train_n": 249, - "fwd_win": 71.4, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.018, - "fwd_n": 105 - }, { "wallet": "0xa6a67037b21956e7fbec5bc7e27a076276088651", "name": "0xa6a67037", @@ -853,16 +839,30 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.375, "fwd_n": 76 }, + { + "wallet": "0xc684828f6b03487759ced2ebdd975f91f3532228", + "name": "0xc684828f", + "train_win": 77.0, + "train_conv_roi": 0.17, + "train_z": 3.81, + "z_all": 4.23, + "med_stake": 938, + "avg_entry": 0.67, + "train_n": 248, + "fwd_win": 72.8, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.012, + "fwd_n": 114 + }, { "wallet": "0xfdb826a0fb4a90b4cc9049e408ea3ef1b73ae4c9", "name": "0xfdb826a0", - "train_win": 68.0, - "train_conv_roi": 0.164, - "train_z": 4.95, - "z_all": 4.59, + "train_win": 67.9, + "train_conv_roi": 0.162, + "train_z": 4.91, + "z_all": 4.58, "med_stake": 133, "avg_entry": 0.57, - "train_n": 444, + "train_n": 443, "fwd_win": null, "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 @@ -901,7 +901,7 @@ "train_win": 76.3, "train_conv_roi": 0.159, "train_z": 2.77, - "z_all": 4.36, + "z_all": 4.4, "med_stake": 1066, "avg_entry": 0.68, "train_n": 135, @@ -943,7 +943,7 @@ "train_win": 73.2, "train_conv_roi": 0.149, "train_z": 3.13, - "z_all": 10.3, + "z_all": 10.31, "med_stake": 1317, "avg_entry": 0.66, "train_n": 306, @@ -968,13 +968,13 @@ { "wallet": "0xc2d9576f67db505cf2e74a9c82b8be2b09f81ef4", "name": "0xc2d9576f", - "train_win": 67.4, + "train_win": 67.3, "train_conv_roi": 0.148, - "train_z": 6.77, + "train_z": 6.75, "z_all": 2.47, - "med_stake": 188, + "med_stake": 189, "avg_entry": 0.57, - "train_n": 733, + "train_n": 732, "fwd_win": null, "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 2 @@ -996,13 +996,13 @@ { "wallet": "0x7ccec29637829abd9e5d6f2cb68d4225c8fa8713", "name": "0x7ccec296", - "train_win": 67.2, - "train_conv_roi": 0.142, - "train_z": 2.61, - "z_all": 2.74, - "med_stake": 772, - "avg_entry": 0.56, - "train_n": 122, + "train_win": 67.5, + "train_conv_roi": 0.143, + "train_z": 2.65, + "z_all": 2.73, + "med_stake": 767, + "avg_entry": 0.57, + "train_n": 123, "fwd_win": null, "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 @@ -1017,9 +1017,9 @@ "med_stake": 168, "avg_entry": 0.62, "train_n": 337, - "fwd_win": 68.5, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.201, - "fwd_n": 181 + "fwd_win": 69.6, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.203, + "fwd_n": 191 }, { "wallet": "0x3ab5ad27c676c4be1218397912eab5396e6de56f", @@ -1073,9 +1073,9 @@ "med_stake": 1410, "avg_entry": 0.59, "train_n": 255, - "fwd_win": 60.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.303, - "fwd_n": 219 + "fwd_win": 61.4, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.311, + "fwd_n": 220 }, { "wallet": "0xb8f6c79e452d7247d0cf47d16eaf7911953c4f7f", @@ -1087,9 +1087,9 @@ "med_stake": 68, "avg_entry": 0.63, "train_n": 342, - "fwd_win": 77.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.099, - "fwd_n": 405 + "fwd_win": 77.2, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.107, + "fwd_n": 439 }, { "wallet": "0xc52fead8edac49825f5c52aff6e63cd331980981", @@ -1115,9 +1115,9 @@ "med_stake": 690, "avg_entry": 0.62, "train_n": 182, - "fwd_win": 58.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.095, - "fwd_n": 69 + "fwd_win": 59.2, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.109, + "fwd_n": 71 }, { "wallet": "0x40db60f96894e44b9f0ea967021452280a12ca8c", @@ -1171,9 +1171,9 @@ "med_stake": 1690, "avg_entry": 0.69, "train_n": 313, - "fwd_win": 74.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.101, - "fwd_n": 208 + "fwd_win": 75.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.106, + "fwd_n": 216 }, { "wallet": "0xab417c0bacc9fe17368d5d662c957f54a1fcc453", @@ -1185,9 +1185,9 @@ "med_stake": 226, "avg_entry": 0.63, "train_n": 361, - "fwd_win": 66.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.116, - "fwd_n": 273 + "fwd_win": 67.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.117, + "fwd_n": 276 }, { "wallet": "0x8fe9f78102c6f550b6bb88ba695e45917df2c6dc", @@ -1203,6 +1203,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -1.0, "fwd_n": 5 }, + { + "wallet": "0x8f69269039b9a401de28a38c2f1c3001364b7df1", + "name": "0x8f692690", + "train_win": 76.4, + "train_conv_roi": 0.104, + "train_z": 2.2, + "z_all": 2.78, + "med_stake": 6680, + "avg_entry": 0.71, + "train_n": 229, + "fwd_win": 57.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.024, + "fwd_n": 89 + }, { "wallet": "0x46505242a39685d82de798a83da3f4a6fda0f3f0", "name": "0x46505242", @@ -1259,20 +1273,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.1, "fwd_n": 77 }, - { - "wallet": "0x8f69269039b9a401de28a38c2f1c3001364b7df1", - "name": "0x8f692690", - "train_win": 76.3, - "train_conv_roi": 0.1, - "train_z": 2.12, - "z_all": 2.78, - "med_stake": 6696, - "avg_entry": 0.71, - "train_n": 228, - "fwd_win": 57.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.024, - "fwd_n": 89 - }, { "wallet": "0x3c1e0ca47fda726d4711e193f63c44e20ce29514", "name": "0x3c1e0ca4", @@ -1321,7 +1321,7 @@ "train_win": 69.0, "train_conv_roi": 0.088, "train_z": 3.2, - "z_all": 2.09, + "z_all": 2.11, "med_stake": 56, "avg_entry": 0.61, "train_n": 319, @@ -1427,6 +1427,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.082, "fwd_n": 27 }, + { + "wallet": "0x011f2d377e56119fb09196dffb0948ae55711122", + "name": "0x011f2d37", + "train_win": 79.8, + "train_conv_roi": 0.043, + "train_z": 2.73, + "z_all": 7.11, + "med_stake": 3627, + "avg_entry": 0.75, + "train_n": 267, + "fwd_win": 59.6, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.077, + "fwd_n": 109 + }, { "wallet": "0xa85ce6075994cf3e069feeb2ccd9667608533463", "name": "0xa85ce607", @@ -1489,7 +1503,7 @@ "train_win": 75.6, "train_conv_roi": 0.016, "train_z": 1.88, - "z_all": 2.2, + "z_all": 2.22, "med_stake": 3442, "avg_entry": 0.72, "train_n": 361, @@ -1521,9 +1535,9 @@ "med_stake": 438, "avg_entry": 0.63, "train_n": 344, - "fwd_win": 70.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.118, - "fwd_n": 172 + "fwd_win": 71.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.119, + "fwd_n": 178 }, { "wallet": "0xe1d6b51521bd4365769199f392f9818661bd907c", diff --git a/live/dashboard.html b/live/dashboard.html index 427d09dd..43806a9a 100644 --- a/live/dashboard.html +++ b/live/dashboard.html @@ -36,13 +36,13 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de .b{color:var(--green)}.s{color:var(--red)}

Skilled Wallets · Polymarket

-

58 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-08-04 15:07

+

59 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-08-05 12:50

-
Validated wallets
58
-
Median z
4.3
-
Median OOS z
3.1
+
Validated wallets
59
+
Median z
4.2
+
Median OOS z
3.0
Value / longshot
45
-
Favorite-rider
6
+
Favorite-rider
7
@@ -68,7 +68,7 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de

How to read it. z = how far the wallet beat the prices it paid (skill; >3 is strong). OOS z = whether that skill held on held-out bets — the gate that separates real edge from luck. Alpha 0.2–0.4 = share of bets in the underdog value zone where research finds real edge concentrates. Value wallets win by beating longshot/mid prices (the copyable alpha); Favorite-rider wallets post high win rates buying near-certain favorites (real but thin, hard to copy). Click any row for live recent trades. Not financial advice — split-half OOS, forward-track before sizing.