diff --git a/live/conviction_wallets.json b/live/conviction_wallets.json index a8950cd4..af6393b3 100644 --- a/live/conviction_wallets.json +++ b/live/conviction_wallets.json @@ -167,6 +167,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb", + "name": "0xe8ca3f75", + "train_win": 72.3, + "train_conv_roi": 0.679, + "train_z": 8.51, + "avg_entry": 0.47, + "train_n": 238, + "fwd_win": 77.6, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.52, + "fwd_n": 49 + }, { "wallet": "0x916111713050c71c4e073ed5f1a2888c2980533b", "name": "0x91611171", @@ -203,18 +215,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.261, "fwd_n": 6 }, - { - "wallet": "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb", - "name": "0xe8ca3f75", - "train_win": 72.0, - "train_conv_roi": 0.664, - "train_z": 8.43, - "avg_entry": 0.47, - "train_n": 239, - "fwd_win": 77.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.511, - "fwd_n": 48 - }, { "wallet": "0xade74a23c444d0eebee00034459fbc269fab58af", "name": "0xade74a23", @@ -395,18 +395,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0xf419556a9758214628edff29dce8f39a8aa13ce7", - "name": "0xf419556a", - "train_win": 73.1, - "train_conv_roi": 0.467, - "train_z": 8.95, - "avg_entry": 0.51, - "train_n": 391, - "fwd_win": 63.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.098, - "fwd_n": 27 - }, { "wallet": "0x270d11f13d3d782c4e5f68107006bb51c4932ea7", "name": "0x270d11f1", @@ -707,18 +695,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0x1262247f4d8b64274ece92a47e294ef81ae22fc9", - "name": "0x1262247f", - "train_win": 77.1, - "train_conv_roi": 0.32, - "train_z": 3.13, - "avg_entry": 0.63, - "train_n": 96, - "fwd_win": 77.4, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.115, - "fwd_n": 115 - }, { "wallet": "0xeb6bf7369a1dd42c9c727d01939c209568d0632b", "name": "0xeb6bf736", @@ -779,6 +755,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0x5b6e9bce6d8a533017e7f16987c9854c5da955b9", + "name": "0x5b6e9bce", + "train_win": 76.6, + "train_conv_roi": 0.296, + "train_z": 4.6, + "avg_entry": 0.59, + "train_n": 158, + "fwd_win": 73.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.308, + "fwd_n": 57 + }, { "wallet": "0xb0ac765461248e208b422519103d179e9befdc0d", "name": "0xb0ac7654", @@ -803,18 +791,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 2 }, - { - "wallet": "0x5b6e9bce6d8a533017e7f16987c9854c5da955b9", - "name": "0x5b6e9bce", - "train_win": 76.1, - "train_conv_roi": 0.287, - "train_z": 4.42, - "avg_entry": 0.59, - "train_n": 155, - "fwd_win": 72.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.302, - "fwd_n": 55 - }, { "wallet": "0xabc4b581c351c2175fe2451bd920f11531329307", "name": "0xabc4b581", @@ -1075,9 +1051,9 @@ "train_z": 2.55, "avg_entry": 0.62, "train_n": 99, - "fwd_win": 59.9, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.089, - "fwd_n": 137 + "fwd_win": 59.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.073, + "fwd_n": 140 }, { "wallet": "0x6e44a4ceea65c897ff6b728b88b69cfc1d7821bc", @@ -1259,18 +1235,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0x1cff72c8dddc30a64486fda6eab71ab5f9243984", - "name": "0x1cff72c8", - "train_win": 77.8, - "train_conv_roi": 0.19, - "train_z": 2.63, - "avg_entry": 0.66, - "train_n": 99, - "fwd_win": 75.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.158, - "fwd_n": 16 - }, { "wallet": "0x31864feb9d25dee93728c6225ba891530967e9ca", "name": "0x31864feb", @@ -1418,14 +1382,26 @@ { "wallet": "0xc684828f6b03487759ced2ebdd975f91f3532228", "name": "0xc684828f", - "train_win": 77.4, - "train_conv_roi": 0.172, - "train_z": 4.06, + "train_win": 77.5, + "train_conv_roi": 0.173, + "train_z": 4.09, "avg_entry": 0.67, - "train_n": 252, - "fwd_win": 71.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.029, - "fwd_n": 93 + "train_n": 253, + "fwd_win": 73.9, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.009, + "fwd_n": 92 + }, + { + "wallet": "0x1fb7053bb490c6ec05a78fe2ed383af48526fb66", + "name": "0x1fb7053b", + "train_win": 71.5, + "train_conv_roi": 0.172, + "train_z": 2.9, + "avg_entry": 0.6, + "train_n": 123, + "fwd_win": 66.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.211, + "fwd_n": 27 }, { "wallet": "0xd212624d423e1c351783fe71bb4250850d34feaf", @@ -1478,14 +1454,14 @@ { "wallet": "0x12f93b2a5cd5d370e2e2772246c3c7ceed7774ba", "name": "0x12f93b2a", - "train_win": 80.6, - "train_conv_roi": 0.168, - "train_z": 3.83, - "avg_entry": 0.72, - "train_n": 325, - "fwd_win": 86.4, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.366, - "fwd_n": 22 + "train_win": 81.7, + "train_conv_roi": 0.169, + "train_z": 3.58, + "avg_entry": 0.73, + "train_n": 279, + "fwd_win": 77.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.02, + "fwd_n": 88 }, { "wallet": "0xb8adbd9b70907cd22cf1ab84f5091d7920d10e38", @@ -1595,18 +1571,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.221, "fwd_n": 171 }, - { - "wallet": "0x1fb7053bb490c6ec05a78fe2ed383af48526fb66", - "name": "0x1fb7053b", - "train_win": 70.6, - "train_conv_roi": 0.157, - "train_z": 2.8, - "avg_entry": 0.59, - "train_n": 126, - "fwd_win": 72.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.254, - "fwd_n": 22 - }, { "wallet": "0x09b5447d6589fca16c871383c538904da884f006", "name": "0x09b5447d", @@ -1799,18 +1763,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0xec1d07e5379072429caa16bf6efeae71a6e4db17", - "name": "0xec1d07e5", - "train_win": 76.3, - "train_conv_roi": 0.13, - "train_z": 2.65, - "avg_entry": 0.68, - "train_n": 152, - "fwd_win": 70.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.063, - "fwd_n": 178 - }, { "wallet": "0xaf4635074c8f9966ff44f2497183b53fc0578c1d", "name": "0xaf463507", @@ -1859,6 +1811,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.015, "fwd_n": 201 }, + { + "wallet": "0xec1d07e5379072429caa16bf6efeae71a6e4db17", + "name": "0xec1d07e5", + "train_win": 75.8, + "train_conv_roi": 0.122, + "train_z": 2.5, + "avg_entry": 0.68, + "train_n": 153, + "fwd_win": 71.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.085, + "fwd_n": 181 + }, { "wallet": "0x6b0e20fa85e5035f72d73ee8622d6816a79344f6", "name": "0x6b0e20fa", @@ -1919,18 +1883,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0xcd9de3b93f09b803b4564f20beb00c9392752269", - "name": "0xcd9de3b9", - "train_win": 68.3, - "train_conv_roi": 0.113, - "train_z": 2.45, - "avg_entry": 0.62, - "train_n": 312, - "fwd_win": 61.9, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.284, - "fwd_n": 21 - }, { "wallet": "0xd0f884f3fecca09f4a0945620b4befa64f3d73a1", "name": "0xd0f884f3", @@ -2078,14 +2030,14 @@ { "wallet": "0x86c878cde72660ec52f5e6f0f0438b76de8fc867", "name": "0x86c878cd", - "train_win": 77.6, + "train_win": 77.5, "train_conv_roi": 0.105, - "train_z": 2.86, + "train_z": 2.85, "avg_entry": 0.71, - "train_n": 281, - "fwd_win": 73.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.178, - "fwd_n": 104 + "train_n": 280, + "fwd_win": 73.8, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.186, + "fwd_n": 107 }, { "wallet": "0xe00740bce98a594e26861838885ab310ec3b548c", @@ -2099,6 +2051,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0xb0f47416ad54915aea513144d7f3a9429b446fa9", + "name": "0xb0f47416", + "train_win": 69.2, + "train_conv_roi": 0.104, + "train_z": 3.15, + "avg_entry": 0.61, + "train_n": 299, + "fwd_win": 66.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.123, + "fwd_n": 219 + }, { "wallet": "0xe4ad4bc9e7742d1c08636e886dc631c6bb93795c", "name": "0xe4ad4bc9", @@ -2111,18 +2075,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.059, "fwd_n": 160 }, - { - "wallet": "0xb0f47416ad54915aea513144d7f3a9429b446fa9", - "name": "0xb0f47416", - "train_win": 69.2, - "train_conv_roi": 0.103, - "train_z": 3.1, - "avg_entry": 0.61, - "train_n": 295, - "fwd_win": 66.5, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.121, - "fwd_n": 218 - }, { "wallet": "0xc5b5bbd42624a8f0c8dfa90221913007d8c77e80", "name": "0xc5b5bbd4", @@ -2315,18 +2267,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.09, "fwd_n": 21 }, - { - "wallet": "0x1d519580f96eec6c0b65f7ae49b9547475f51200", - "name": "0x1d519580", - "train_win": 70.2, - "train_conv_roi": 0.083, - "train_z": 2.54, - "avg_entry": 0.65, - "train_n": 447, - "fwd_win": null, - "fwd_conv_roi": null, - "fwd_n": 0 - }, { "wallet": "0x29ab15c6b6b16604e1cbd9a2f9580cf403336c4d", "name": "0x29ab15c6", @@ -2651,18 +2591,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.005, "fwd_n": 26 }, - { - "wallet": "0x409555b6b66e3d9b26c289a24121c19d93144583", - "name": "0x409555b6", - "train_win": 73.5, - "train_conv_roi": 0.034, - "train_z": 2.45, - "avg_entry": 0.69, - "train_n": 449, - "fwd_win": null, - "fwd_conv_roi": null, - "fwd_n": 1 - }, { "wallet": "0xa85ce6075994cf3e069feeb2ccd9667608533463", "name": "0xa85ce607", diff --git a/live/dashboard.html b/live/dashboard.html index 811910d1..ce3e02d3 100644 --- a/live/dashboard.html +++ b/live/dashboard.html @@ -36,12 +36,12 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de .b{color:var(--green)}.s{color:var(--red)}
46 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-06-26 11:21
+45 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-06-27 11:15
How to read it. z = how far the wallet beat the prices it paid (skill; >3 is strong). OOS z = whether that skill held on held-out bets — the gate that separates real edge from luck. Alpha 0.2–0.4 = share of bets in the underdog value zone where research finds real edge concentrates. Value wallets win by beating longshot/mid prices (the copyable alpha); Favorite-rider wallets post high win rates buying near-certain favorites (real but thin, hard to copy). Click any row for live recent trades. Not financial advice — split-half OOS, forward-track before sizing.