diff --git a/copybot_ignored_exits.live.jsonl b/copybot_ignored_exits.live.jsonl
index 21b9932a..941c6a3e 100644
--- a/copybot_ignored_exits.live.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_ignored_exits.live.jsonl
@@ -220,3 +220,4 @@
 {"ts": 1784959528.7, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.87, "shares_held": 3.4789, "cost_held": 2.47, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "live"}
 {"ts": 1784959859.8, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.87, "shares_held": 3.4789, "cost_held": 2.47, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "live"}
 {"ts": 1784960185.3, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.87, "shares_held": 3.4789, "cost_held": 2.47, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1784960814.3, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.87, "shares_held": 3.4789, "cost_held": 2.47, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "live"}
diff --git a/copybot_state.live.json b/copybot_state.live.json
index 2af4e983..239a9e31 100644
--- a/copybot_state.live.json
+++ b/copybot_state.live.json
@@ -13342,15 +13342,6 @@
       "event": "israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-throughptptpt-20260716224448963",
       "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
       "cond": "0xa6480903e54c68f2ee79cacb7861dfcc9b473e8b07d6dcaf2c9923034a5fb56f"
-    },
-    "33617782943606593457233658595461209550659667672324965420014965311339164331375": {
-      "shares": 2.74,
-      "cost": 2.2742,
-      "title": "Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 25, 2026?",
-      "outcome": "Yes",
-      "event": null,
-      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-      "cond": "0x3f5aba8a01eabd593862a49fdccec09185df0f455553d9b68842cf1ef7ebf153"
     }
   },
   "spend": {
@@ -13452,10 +13443,9 @@
     "88095392088380018988811128905056685420681684247700244221273733002608971216833": "0x8aaaca6ea5c037d3cdfe85272ab9029b7165694dcae8af0de5071f01a1a944f0",
     "68354490231292339705788355645447204244217234157276853910593583690623904256055": "0x675eb399eefd8ab595da49be18429d688b62737d66b997d1298a40db589a3f73",
     "86567202803696185629704724961398129231892610051254319801824623009047556217191": "0xa6480903e54c68f2ee79cacb7861dfcc9b473e8b07d6dcaf2c9923034a5fb56f",
-    "17278012384173360502232131272354786231595802723343593413625940837844848366978": "0x561e9279ca4e2fc1cdea5b0c1ae13559bfa8f6bb3be7e3015ffc548db34ab234",
-    "33617782943606593457233658595461209550659667672324965420014965311339164331375": "0x3f5aba8a01eabd593862a49fdccec09185df0f455553d9b68842cf1ef7ebf153"
+    "17278012384173360502232131272354786231595802723343593413625940837844848366978": "0x561e9279ca4e2fc1cdea5b0c1ae13559bfa8f6bb3be7e3015ffc548db34ab234"
   },
-  "cash": 20.99462792902328,
+  "cash": 23.734627929023283,
   "lag": {
     "n": 119,
     "sum_s": 3205.6686022281647,
@@ -16011,10 +16001,10 @@
       "cost": 2.27,
       "fee": 0.0116,
       "opened": 1784944416,
-      "status": "open",
-      "exit_price": null,
-      "pnl": null,
-      "settled": null,
+      "status": "won",
+      "exit_price": 1.0,
+      "pnl": 0.46,
+      "settled": 1784960798,
       "end_ts": 1784937600
     },
     "95523031090032630493379749841042373483392094122589567942892903275780964514373": {
@@ -19313,8 +19303,8 @@
       "name": "0xbadaf319"
     }
   ],
-  "feed_sig": "cff77a597fee2af81e1022ba66ea2a6e",
-  "feed_pushed_at": 1784960560.6048183,
+  "feed_sig": "cc7678c8dc0685dc9d1a1581bdb6a892",
+  "feed_pushed_at": 1784960685.2936015,
   "adjustments": [
     {
       "ts": 1783906689,
@@ -19365,7 +19355,7 @@
     "6457952357077230044054791268159160058712529625831041550558183767114352456975": 1,
     "61895825019286928316753689208545457497714235075046708292847356747636406191670": 1,
     "82768531874539579332422216880159980913196623213037059365722754442149714478353": 1,
-    "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080": 218
+    "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080": 219
   },
   "trade_cursor": {
     "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41": 1783900970,
@@ -19391,21 +19381,6 @@
     "outcome": "No"
   },
   "ignored_exits": [
-    {
-      "ts": 1784893581.6,
-      "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080",
-      "their_size": 0,
-      "their_prev": 0,
-      "frac": 1.0,
-      "reason": "band",
-      "sell_px": 0.86,
-      "shares_held": 3.4789,
-      "cost_held": 2.47,
-      "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?",
-      "outcome": "Yes",
-      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-      "mode": "live"
-    },
     {
       "ts": 1784893903.1,
       "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080",
@@ -22390,6 +22365,21 @@
       "outcome": "Yes",
       "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
       "mode": "live"
+    },
+    {
+      "ts": 1784960814.3,
+      "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080",
+      "their_size": 0,
+      "their_prev": 0,
+      "frac": 1.0,
+      "reason": "band",
+      "sell_px": 0.87,
+      "shares_held": 3.4789,
+      "cost_held": 2.47,
+      "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?",
+      "outcome": "Yes",
+      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+      "mode": "live"
     }
   ],
   "maker_stats": {
diff --git a/live/copybot_live_real.json b/live/copybot_live_real.json
index d61b99cc..4245fd76 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live_real.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live_real.json
@@ -1,17 +1,17 @@
 {
  "mode": "live",
  "bankroll": 66.42,
- "stake": 2.18,
+ "stake": 2.2,
  "stake_pct": 0.04,
  "event_cap": 0,
  "hwm": 63.02,
- "cash": 20.99,
- "deployed": 33.57,
+ "cash": 23.73,
+ "deployed": 31.3,
  "reserve": 0.0,
- "realized": -21.29,
+ "realized": -20.83,
  "adjustments": 9.44,
  "ledger_drift": 0.02,
- "open_count": 16,
+ "open_count": 15,
  "fees_paid": 3.41,
  "fee_rate": 0.03,
  "lag": {
@@ -49,6 +49,26 @@
   "JuiceFarm": 752.73
  },
  "bets": [
+  {
+   "token": "33617782943606593457233658595461209550659667672324965420014965311339164331375",
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
+   "title": "Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 25, 2026?",
+   "their_price": 0.83,
+   "my_price": 0.83,
+   "slippage_pct": 0.0,
+   "lag_s": 6.3,
+   "shares": 2.74,
+   "cost": 2.27,
+   "fee": 0.01,
+   "opened": 1784944416,
+   "status": "won",
+   "exit_price": 1.0,
+   "pnl": 0.46,
+   "settled": 1784960798,
+   "end_ts": 1784937600
+  },
   {
    "token": "95523031090032630493379749841042373483392094122589567942892903275780964514373",
    "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
@@ -69,26 +89,6 @@
    "settled": 1784953448,
    "end_ts": 1784851200
   },
-  {
-   "token": "33617782943606593457233658595461209550659667672324965420014965311339164331375",
-   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-   "name": "0xbadaf319",
-   "outcome": "Yes",
-   "title": "Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 25, 2026?",
-   "their_price": 0.83,
-   "my_price": 0.83,
-   "slippage_pct": 0.0,
-   "lag_s": 6.3,
-   "shares": 2.74,
-   "cost": 2.27,
-   "fee": 0.01,
-   "opened": 1784944416,
-   "status": "open",
-   "exit_price": null,
-   "pnl": null,
-   "settled": null,
-   "end_ts": 1784937600
-  },
   {
    "token": "5506960250160396168975872633831816223181816814113506849144916695207660278211",
    "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343",
@@ -3079,14 +3079,14 @@
  },
  "wallet_pnl": {
   "0xbadaf319": {
-   "realized": 0.48,
-   "n": 23,
-   "wins": 5,
-   "open_cost": 15.6,
-   "open_n": 6,
+   "realized": 0.94,
+   "n": 24,
+   "wins": 6,
+   "open_cost": 13.33,
+   "open_n": 5,
    "miss_n": 70,
    "miss_pnl": 1170.13,
-   "last_ts": 1784944416
+   "last_ts": 1784960798
   },
   "AIcAIc": {
    "realized": -14.85,
@@ -3189,5 +3189,5 @@
    "last_ts": 0
   }
  },
- "updated": 1784960597
+ "updated": 1784960801
 }
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/live/copybot_live_real_full.json b/live/copybot_live_real_full.json
index eef69d7d..b962ac5e 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live_real_full.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live_real_full.json
@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 {
  "mode": "live",
- "updated": 1784960597,
+ "updated": 1784960801,
  "wallet_pnl": {
   "0xbadaf319": {
-   "realized": 0.48,
-   "n": 23,
-   "wins": 5,
-   "open_cost": 15.6,
-   "open_n": 6,
+   "realized": 0.94,
+   "n": 24,
+   "wins": 6,
+   "open_cost": 13.33,
+   "open_n": 5,
    "miss_n": 70,
    "miss_pnl": 1170.13,
-   "last_ts": 1784944416
+   "last_ts": 1784960798
   },
   "AIcAIc": {
    "realized": -14.85,
@@ -114,6 +114,26 @@
   }
  },
  "bets": [
+  {
+   "token": "33617782943606593457233658595461209550659667672324965420014965311339164331375",
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "name": "0xbadaf319",
+   "outcome": "Yes",
+   "title": "Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 25, 2026?",
+   "their_price": 0.83,
+   "my_price": 0.83,
+   "slippage_pct": 0.0,
+   "lag_s": 6.3,
+   "shares": 2.74,
+   "cost": 2.27,
+   "fee": 0.0116,
+   "opened": 1784944416,
+   "status": "won",
+   "exit_price": 1.0,
+   "pnl": 0.46,
+   "settled": 1784960798,
+   "end_ts": 1784937600
+  },
   {
    "token": "95523031090032630493379749841042373483392094122589567942892903275780964514373",
    "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
@@ -134,26 +154,6 @@
    "settled": 1784953448,
    "end_ts": 1784851200
   },
-  {
-   "token": "33617782943606593457233658595461209550659667672324965420014965311339164331375",
-   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-   "name": "0xbadaf319",
-   "outcome": "Yes",
-   "title": "Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 25, 2026?",
-   "their_price": 0.83,
-   "my_price": 0.83,
-   "slippage_pct": 0.0,
-   "lag_s": 6.3,
-   "shares": 2.74,
-   "cost": 2.27,
-   "fee": 0.0116,
-   "opened": 1784944416,
-   "status": "open",
-   "exit_price": null,
-   "pnl": null,
-   "settled": null,
-   "end_ts": 1784937600
-  },
   {
    "token": "5506960250160396168975872633831816223181816814113506849144916695207660278211",
    "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343",
diff --git a/rtds_shadow.live.jsonl b/rtds_shadow.live.jsonl
index d30dfd51..d19f9b53 100644
--- a/rtds_shadow.live.jsonl
+++ b/rtds_shadow.live.jsonl
@@ -2449,3 +2449,4 @@
 {"ts": 1784958794.35, "trade_ts": 1784958794, "lat_s": 0.35, "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "side": "BUY", "size": 352.94, "price": 0.15, "title": "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 27?", "tx": "0x535517099676c9ed52bfa774977c4c2751e6e8647692ab8be93ac8981f904a62", "seen": false}
 {"ts": 1784958873.86, "trade_ts": 1784958873, "lat_s": 0.86, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "name": "JuiceFarm", "side": "BUY", "size": 10, "price": 0.85, "title": "LoL: Dignitas vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Regular Season", "tx": "0x6f9c45b98ee571383794ebb75623ccd50d5747506072c7c930b4e2a9a16668a9", "seen": false}
 {"ts": 1784958925.1, "trade_ts": 1784958924, "lat_s": 1.1, "wallet": "0x40ce68f1564f3c751b12d88a393d8cc0651dbf90", "name": "JuiceFarm", "side": "BUY", "size": 11, "price": 0.56, "title": "LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO3) - LCS Regular Season", "tx": "0x543989afc9e3e4d0960026d75f8599c33eaa1fc9ebfcc620f2553a6f714ebc1a", "seen": false}
+{"ts": 1784960795.58, "trade_ts": 1784960795, "lat_s": 0.58, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "side": "BUY", "size": 8.095237, "price": 0.8399999901176457, "title": "Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34\u00b0C on July 25", "tx": "0x94891563a2be7997629169e65a2097bb4a27fc54808fbc5a1bddb33ae857a652", "seen": false}