From adbbb784c3da88ff59a6e8bd9ee3454a274f0b2f Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: jaxperro <jaxtorres@gmail.com>
Date: Thu, 16 Jul 2026 15:36:43 -0400
Subject: [PATCH] =?UTF-8?q?live:=20daily=20refresh=20=E2=80=94=20skilled?=
 =?UTF-8?q?=20+=20sharp=20wallets=20[skip=20ci]?=
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit

---
 live/conviction_wallets.json |  304 +++--
 live/copybot.paper.json      |    6 +-
 live/dashboard.html          |   14 +-
 live/portfolio.json          |    2 +-
 live/watch_sharps.json       | 2306 +++++++++++++++++-----------------
 live/watch_skilled.json      |  760 +----------
 6 files changed, 1317 insertions(+), 2075 deletions(-)

diff --git a/live/conviction_wallets.json b/live/conviction_wallets.json
index 58e7ad77..6536b52c 100644
--- a/live/conviction_wallets.json
+++ b/live/conviction_wallets.json
@@ -33,7 +33,7 @@
     "train_win": 100.0,
     "train_conv_roi": 1.249,
     "train_z": 9.66,
-    "z_all": 20.95,
+    "z_all": 20.98,
     "med_stake": 9800,
     "avg_entry": 0.46,
     "train_n": 79,
@@ -313,7 +313,7 @@
     "train_win": 68.2,
     "train_conv_roi": 0.375,
     "train_z": 7.93,
-    "z_all": 14.48,
+    "z_all": 14.51,
     "med_stake": 841,
     "avg_entry": 0.53,
     "train_n": 484,
@@ -349,20 +349,6 @@
     "fwd_conv_roi": 0.228,
     "fwd_n": 220
   },
-  {
-    "wallet": "0xa354c4d6bc6dbcdd804cdbac820949e7defeb85f",
-    "name": "0xa354c4d6",
-    "train_win": 68.4,
-    "train_conv_roi": 0.348,
-    "train_z": 2.88,
-    "z_all": 8.09,
-    "med_stake": 200,
-    "avg_entry": 0.53,
-    "train_n": 76,
-    "fwd_win": null,
-    "fwd_conv_roi": null,
-    "fwd_n": 0
-  },
   {
     "wallet": "0x82d2e4dbb0a849ff8e2f5380719769145648beea",
     "name": "0x82d2e4db",
@@ -392,18 +378,18 @@
     "fwd_n": 54
   },
   {
-    "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
-    "name": "0x215adbb6",
-    "train_win": 72.0,
-    "train_conv_roi": 0.311,
-    "train_z": 5.85,
-    "z_all": 5.04,
-    "med_stake": 400,
-    "avg_entry": 0.57,
-    "train_n": 289,
-    "fwd_win": 55.8,
-    "fwd_conv_roi": 0.327,
-    "fwd_n": 276
+    "wallet": "0xf6099a9eacfef24a4161bd857fbfbcd36cdfe68b",
+    "name": "0xf6099a9e",
+    "train_win": 83.5,
+    "train_conv_roi": 0.31,
+    "train_z": 4.2,
+    "z_all": 3.98,
+    "med_stake": 59,
+    "avg_entry": 0.65,
+    "train_n": 85,
+    "fwd_win": 75.0,
+    "fwd_conv_roi": 0.107,
+    "fwd_n": 264
   },
   {
     "wallet": "0xc904211fd4412d5caa0b51f923304bf5e1821e9a",
@@ -434,18 +420,18 @@
     "fwd_n": 78
   },
   {
-    "wallet": "0xf6099a9eacfef24a4161bd857fbfbcd36cdfe68b",
-    "name": "0xf6099a9e",
-    "train_win": 83.7,
-    "train_conv_roi": 0.308,
-    "train_z": 4.21,
-    "z_all": 3.99,
-    "med_stake": 59,
-    "avg_entry": 0.65,
-    "train_n": 86,
-    "fwd_win": 75.0,
-    "fwd_conv_roi": 0.107,
-    "fwd_n": 264
+    "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
+    "name": "0x215adbb6",
+    "train_win": 71.9,
+    "train_conv_roi": 0.304,
+    "train_z": 5.76,
+    "z_all": 5.04,
+    "med_stake": 400,
+    "avg_entry": 0.57,
+    "train_n": 288,
+    "fwd_win": 55.8,
+    "fwd_conv_roi": 0.327,
+    "fwd_n": 276
   },
   {
     "wallet": "0x0bd753cbeb82b4dc735fdd84955f99fbaf258553",
@@ -503,20 +489,6 @@
     "fwd_conv_roi": null,
     "fwd_n": 0
   },
-  {
-    "wallet": "0x098eddabb2d388f31e79aaf525e49588f22a6fa2",
-    "name": "0x098eddab",
-    "train_win": 82.1,
-    "train_conv_roi": 0.249,
-    "train_z": 3.91,
-    "z_all": 3.96,
-    "med_stake": 231,
-    "avg_entry": 0.68,
-    "train_n": 112,
-    "fwd_win": 73.1,
-    "fwd_conv_roi": 0.124,
-    "fwd_n": 52
-  },
   {
     "wallet": "0xed37e7316f6b1b99da8893e0c09cfe0bf1b62f93",
     "name": "0xed37e731",
@@ -531,6 +503,20 @@
     "fwd_conv_roi": 1.024,
     "fwd_n": 17
   },
+  {
+    "wallet": "0x098eddabb2d388f31e79aaf525e49588f22a6fa2",
+    "name": "0x098eddab",
+    "train_win": 81.2,
+    "train_conv_roi": 0.23,
+    "train_z": 3.76,
+    "z_all": 3.95,
+    "med_stake": 231,
+    "avg_entry": 0.68,
+    "train_n": 112,
+    "fwd_win": 73.1,
+    "fwd_conv_roi": 0.124,
+    "fwd_n": 52
+  },
   {
     "wallet": "0x2d462b29127b919ae4c085e03be44ae7077e3e2d",
     "name": "0x2d462b29",
@@ -621,7 +607,7 @@
     "train_win": 85.1,
     "train_conv_roi": 0.199,
     "train_z": 4.74,
-    "z_all": 11.87,
+    "z_all": 11.89,
     "med_stake": 355,
     "avg_entry": 0.74,
     "train_n": 289,
@@ -643,6 +629,20 @@
     "fwd_conv_roi": -0.078,
     "fwd_n": 29
   },
+  {
+    "wallet": "0x0c3e55cf50a00a7e74fabd8584c6fdde21603c4c",
+    "name": "0x0c3e55cf",
+    "train_win": 75.0,
+    "train_conv_roi": 0.193,
+    "train_z": 3.78,
+    "z_all": 10.08,
+    "med_stake": 442,
+    "avg_entry": 0.64,
+    "train_n": 236,
+    "fwd_win": 74.1,
+    "fwd_conv_roi": 0.02,
+    "fwd_n": 424
+  },
   {
     "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",
     "name": "0xd7d36345",
@@ -657,20 +657,6 @@
     "fwd_conv_roi": 0.019,
     "fwd_n": 282
   },
-  {
-    "wallet": "0x0c3e55cf50a00a7e74fabd8584c6fdde21603c4c",
-    "name": "0x0c3e55cf",
-    "train_win": 75.1,
-    "train_conv_roi": 0.19,
-    "train_z": 3.74,
-    "z_all": 10.09,
-    "med_stake": 442,
-    "avg_entry": 0.65,
-    "train_n": 237,
-    "fwd_win": 73.9,
-    "fwd_conv_roi": 0.019,
-    "fwd_n": 422
-  },
   {
     "wallet": "0x3eff118d4bc1742903d9516edf2e3c991600ae12",
     "name": "0x3eff118d",
@@ -699,6 +685,20 @@
     "fwd_conv_roi": 0.24,
     "fwd_n": 183
   },
+  {
+    "wallet": "0x7ccec29637829abd9e5d6f2cb68d4225c8fa8713",
+    "name": "0x7ccec296",
+    "train_win": 68.2,
+    "train_conv_roi": 0.177,
+    "train_z": 2.78,
+    "z_all": 2.97,
+    "med_stake": 767,
+    "avg_entry": 0.56,
+    "train_n": 110,
+    "fwd_win": null,
+    "fwd_conv_roi": null,
+    "fwd_n": 0
+  },
   {
     "wallet": "0x98a5dfa64a24be313adebf9a2c052411f04fd074",
     "name": "0x98a5dfa6",
@@ -755,33 +755,19 @@
     "fwd_conv_roi": -0.036,
     "fwd_n": 65
   },
-  {
-    "wallet": "0x7ccec29637829abd9e5d6f2cb68d4225c8fa8713",
-    "name": "0x7ccec296",
-    "train_win": 67.5,
-    "train_conv_roi": 0.164,
-    "train_z": 2.56,
-    "z_all": 2.88,
-    "med_stake": 775,
-    "avg_entry": 0.57,
-    "train_n": 114,
-    "fwd_win": null,
-    "fwd_conv_roi": null,
-    "fwd_n": 0
-  },
   {
     "wallet": "0x13464aabec792c36b062316f474713e681330448",
     "name": "0x13464aab",
     "train_win": 70.1,
     "train_conv_roi": 0.161,
-    "train_z": 3.88,
-    "z_all": 8.46,
-    "med_stake": 168,
+    "train_z": 3.97,
+    "z_all": 8.52,
+    "med_stake": 166,
     "avg_entry": 0.61,
     "train_n": 338,
-    "fwd_win": 66.4,
-    "fwd_conv_roi": 0.246,
-    "fwd_n": 122
+    "fwd_win": 65.9,
+    "fwd_conv_roi": 0.236,
+    "fwd_n": 123
   },
   {
     "wallet": "0x2842d5201b2119d0ec14581fee3c3324bc0c9bab",
@@ -829,10 +815,10 @@
     "wallet": "0xed61f86bb5298d2f27c21c433ce58d80b88a9aa3",
     "name": "0xed61f86b",
     "train_win": 73.1,
-    "train_conv_roi": 0.137,
-    "train_z": 3.04,
+    "train_conv_roi": 0.136,
+    "train_z": 3.03,
     "z_all": 10.29,
-    "med_stake": 1305,
+    "med_stake": 1315,
     "avg_entry": 0.66,
     "train_n": 305,
     "fwd_win": 85.7,
@@ -842,16 +828,16 @@
   {
     "wallet": "0xc2d9576f67db505cf2e74a9c82b8be2b09f81ef4",
     "name": "0xc2d9576f",
-    "train_win": 66.7,
-    "train_conv_roi": 0.135,
-    "train_z": 6.37,
-    "z_all": 2.11,
-    "med_stake": 189,
+    "train_win": 66.9,
+    "train_conv_roi": 0.133,
+    "train_z": 6.27,
+    "z_all": 2.19,
+    "med_stake": 190,
     "avg_entry": 0.57,
-    "train_n": 697,
+    "train_n": 677,
     "fwd_win": null,
     "fwd_conv_roi": null,
-    "fwd_n": 2
+    "fwd_n": 1
   },
   {
     "wallet": "0x3ab5ad27c676c4be1218397912eab5396e6de56f",
@@ -993,16 +979,30 @@
     "fwd_conv_roi": 0.065,
     "fwd_n": 98
   },
+  {
+    "wallet": "0x8f69269039b9a401de28a38c2f1c3001364b7df1",
+    "name": "0x8f692690",
+    "train_win": 77.3,
+    "train_conv_roi": 0.115,
+    "train_z": 2.48,
+    "z_all": 2.96,
+    "med_stake": 6680,
+    "avg_entry": 0.71,
+    "train_n": 225,
+    "fwd_win": 59.4,
+    "fwd_conv_roi": 0.036,
+    "fwd_n": 64
+  },
   {
     "wallet": "0x0b9353aea88d01ed1912013b435dd39947d0a6cc",
     "name": "0x0b9353ae",
-    "train_win": 80.3,
-    "train_conv_roi": 0.114,
-    "train_z": 4.17,
-    "z_all": 2.26,
+    "train_win": 80.2,
+    "train_conv_roi": 0.113,
+    "train_z": 4.15,
+    "z_all": 2.27,
     "med_stake": 177,
     "avg_entry": 0.71,
-    "train_n": 350,
+    "train_n": 349,
     "fwd_win": null,
     "fwd_conv_roi": null,
     "fwd_n": 0
@@ -1021,20 +1021,6 @@
     "fwd_conv_roi": 0.103,
     "fwd_n": 149
   },
-  {
-    "wallet": "0x8f69269039b9a401de28a38c2f1c3001364b7df1",
-    "name": "0x8f692690",
-    "train_win": 76.9,
-    "train_conv_roi": 0.11,
-    "train_z": 2.37,
-    "z_all": 2.9,
-    "med_stake": 6680,
-    "avg_entry": 0.71,
-    "train_n": 225,
-    "fwd_win": 59.4,
-    "fwd_conv_roi": 0.036,
-    "fwd_n": 64
-  },
   {
     "wallet": "0x8fe9f78102c6f550b6bb88ba695e45917df2c6dc",
     "name": "0x8fe9f781",
@@ -1069,7 +1055,7 @@
     "train_win": 69.8,
     "train_conv_roi": 0.103,
     "train_z": 3.04,
-    "z_all": 2.13,
+    "z_all": 2.1,
     "med_stake": 226,
     "avg_entry": 0.63,
     "train_n": 364,
@@ -1105,6 +1091,20 @@
     "fwd_conv_roi": -0.07,
     "fwd_n": 46
   },
+  {
+    "wallet": "0x60a92c8620846d81f5ea17b0564e0d4b7c545a71",
+    "name": "0x60a92c86",
+    "train_win": 77.9,
+    "train_conv_roi": 0.098,
+    "train_z": 2.02,
+    "z_all": 2.02,
+    "med_stake": 5714,
+    "avg_entry": 0.71,
+    "train_n": 122,
+    "fwd_win": 70.6,
+    "fwd_conv_roi": 0.023,
+    "fwd_n": 68
+  },
   {
     "wallet": "0x3c1e0ca47fda726d4711e193f63c44e20ce29514",
     "name": "0x3c1e0ca4",
@@ -1133,20 +1133,6 @@
     "fwd_conv_roi": null,
     "fwd_n": 0
   },
-  {
-    "wallet": "0x60a92c8620846d81f5ea17b0564e0d4b7c545a71",
-    "name": "0x60a92c86",
-    "train_win": 77.2,
-    "train_conv_roi": 0.089,
-    "train_z": 1.97,
-    "z_all": 2.02,
-    "med_stake": 5599,
-    "avg_entry": 0.7,
-    "train_n": 123,
-    "fwd_win": 70.6,
-    "fwd_conv_roi": 0.023,
-    "fwd_n": 68
-  },
   {
     "wallet": "0x3746dc1ec0dc01352dc141b310e5da81fd7ea99f",
     "name": "0x3746dc1e",
@@ -1189,29 +1175,15 @@
     "fwd_conv_roi": -0.057,
     "fwd_n": 72
   },
-  {
-    "wallet": "0x011f2d377e56119fb09196dffb0948ae55711122",
-    "name": "0x011f2d37",
-    "train_win": 80.1,
-    "train_conv_roi": 0.063,
-    "train_z": 2.94,
-    "z_all": 6.93,
-    "med_stake": 3561,
-    "avg_entry": 0.75,
-    "train_n": 267,
-    "fwd_win": 59.0,
-    "fwd_conv_roi": -0.076,
-    "fwd_n": 105
-  },
   {
     "wallet": "0x809205fb1c91f746b9703ca412c4fdd0435db8a2",
     "name": "0x809205fb",
-    "train_win": 76.5,
-    "train_conv_roi": 0.05,
-    "train_z": 1.94,
-    "z_all": 2.95,
+    "train_win": 76.1,
+    "train_conv_roi": 0.045,
+    "train_z": 1.88,
+    "z_all": 2.94,
     "med_stake": 98,
-    "avg_entry": 0.73,
+    "avg_entry": 0.72,
     "train_n": 264,
     "fwd_win": 77.8,
     "fwd_conv_roi": 0.082,
@@ -1248,13 +1220,13 @@
   {
     "wallet": "0xe1a532a9991cc9ce27174b0296d077f824149dad",
     "name": "0xe1a532a9",
-    "train_win": 69.6,
-    "train_conv_roi": 0.026,
-    "train_z": 3.03,
-    "z_all": 3.87,
-    "med_stake": 129,
+    "train_win": 69.9,
+    "train_conv_roi": 0.027,
+    "train_z": 3.06,
+    "z_all": 3.8,
+    "med_stake": 130,
     "avg_entry": 0.64,
-    "train_n": 382,
+    "train_n": 379,
     "fwd_win": null,
     "fwd_conv_roi": null,
     "fwd_n": 0
@@ -1265,7 +1237,7 @@
     "train_win": 68.2,
     "train_conv_roi": 0.025,
     "train_z": 2.34,
-    "z_all": 6.69,
+    "z_all": 6.7,
     "med_stake": 447,
     "avg_entry": 0.64,
     "train_n": 380,
@@ -1301,6 +1273,20 @@
     "fwd_conv_roi": null,
     "fwd_n": 0
   },
+  {
+    "wallet": "0x83e8723ff456f79445192be823761a4d67517b89",
+    "name": "0x83e8723f",
+    "train_win": 68.9,
+    "train_conv_roi": 0.016,
+    "train_z": 1.99,
+    "z_all": 2.14,
+    "med_stake": 489,
+    "avg_entry": 0.64,
+    "train_n": 302,
+    "fwd_win": 68.8,
+    "fwd_conv_roi": 0.866,
+    "fwd_n": 16
+  },
   {
     "wallet": "0x993c072519306017fe9a6b3ee6fa4a02b3056787",
     "name": "0x993c0725",
diff --git a/live/copybot.paper.json b/live/copybot.paper.json
index 3404d032..9663a887 100644
--- a/live/copybot.paper.json
+++ b/live/copybot.paper.json
@@ -14,7 +14,7 @@
       "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
       "name": "0xbadaf319",
       "class": "volume",
-      "floor": 44.12
+      "floor": 41.21
     },
     {
       "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",
@@ -26,13 +26,13 @@
       "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343",
       "name": "1kto1m",
       "class": "volume",
-      "floor": 328.31
+      "floor": 328.77
     },
     {
       "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
       "name": "BikesAreTheBikes",
       "class": "volume",
-      "floor": 227.39
+      "floor": 227.2
     }
   ],
   "follow": {
diff --git a/live/dashboard.html b/live/dashboard.html
index 441024f4..4207bf4a 100644
--- a/live/dashboard.html
+++ b/live/dashboard.html
@@ -36,13 +36,13 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de
 .b{color:var(--green)}.s{color:var(--red)}
 </style></head><body><div class="wrap">
 <h1>Skilled Wallets <span style="color:var(--dim);font-weight:400;font-size:18px">· Polymarket</span></h1>
-<p class="sub">63 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-15 11:25</p>
+<p class="sub">1 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-16 15:36</p>
 <div class="cards">
-  <div class="card"><div class="k">Validated wallets</div><div class="v">63</div></div>
-  <div class="card"><div class="k">Median z</div><div class="v">4.2</div></div>
-  <div class="card"><div class="k">Median OOS z</div><div class="v" style="color:var(--green)">3.2</div></div>
-  <div class="card"><div class="k">Value / longshot</div><div class="v" style="color:var(--green)">47</div></div>
-  <div class="card"><div class="k">Favorite-rider</div><div class="v" style="color:var(--amber)">8</div></div>
+  <div class="card"><div class="k">Validated wallets</div><div class="v">1</div></div>
+  <div class="card"><div class="k">Median z</div><div class="v">5.5</div></div>
+  <div class="card"><div class="k">Median OOS z</div><div class="v" style="color:var(--green)">5.5</div></div>
+  <div class="card"><div class="k">Value / longshot</div><div class="v" style="color:var(--green)">0</div></div>
+  <div class="card"><div class="k">Favorite-rider</div><div class="v" style="color:var(--amber)">1</div></div>
 </div>
 <div class="controls">
   <input id="q" placeholder="search name or address…">
@@ -68,7 +68,7 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de
 <p class="note"><b>How to read it.</b> <b>z</b> = how far the wallet beat the prices it paid (skill; >3 is strong). <b>OOS z</b> = whether that skill held on held-out bets — the gate that separates real edge from luck. <b>Alpha 0.2–0.4</b> = share of bets in the underdog value zone where research finds real edge concentrates. <span class="value" style="padding:1px 7px">Value</span> wallets win by beating longshot/mid prices (the copyable alpha); <span class="favorite" style="padding:1px 7px">Favorite-rider</span> wallets post high win rates buying near-certain favorites (real but thin, hard to copy). Click any row for live recent trades. Not financial advice — split-half OOS, forward-track before sizing.</p>
 </div>
 <script>
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diff --git a/live/portfolio.json b/live/portfolio.json
index 7af95e71..fa23d436 100644
--- a/live/portfolio.json
+++ b/live/portfolio.json
@@ -1 +1 @@
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\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/live/watch_sharps.json b/live/watch_sharps.json
index 64016653..26fec8e1 100644
--- a/live/watch_sharps.json
+++ b/live/watch_sharps.json
@@ -1,52 +1,4 @@
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 ]
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/live/watch_skilled.json b/live/watch_skilled.json
index 37228703..3bff074f 100644
--- a/live/watch_skilled.json
+++ b/live/watch_skilled.json
@@ -1,758 +1,14 @@
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\ No newline at end of file