From a52116eb699e23de56ed77ad08ca7d103f8e746e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: jaxperro Date: Tue, 28 Jul 2026 13:48:25 -0400 Subject: [PATCH] =?UTF-8?q?live:=20daily=20refresh=20=E2=80=94=20skilled?= =?UTF-8?q?=20+=20sharp=20wallets=20[skip=20ci]?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit --- history/reconcile.csv | 2 + live/conviction_wallets.json | 320 +++-- live/dashboard.html | 14 +- live/portfolio.json | 2 +- live/portfolio_follow.json | 2 +- live/portfolio_follow_missed.json | 2 +- live/portfolio_live_replica.json | 2 +- live/portfolio_missed.json | 2 +- live/watch_sharps.json | 1876 ++++++++++++++--------------- live/watch_skilled.json | 504 ++++---- 10 files changed, 1337 insertions(+), 1389 deletions(-) diff --git a/history/reconcile.csv b/history/reconcile.csv index 88e119b3..06c86887 100644 --- a/history/reconcile.csv +++ b/history/reconcile.csv @@ -1,2 +1,4 @@ date,live_bt_ev,live_fill_gap,live_filled_ev,live_filled_n,live_missed_ev,live_missed_n,live_realized,live_rejected_ev,live_rejected_n,live_unseen_ev,live_unseen_n,n,paper_bt_ev,paper_fill_gap,paper_filled_ev,paper_filled_n,paper_missed_ev,paper_missed_n,paper_rejected_ev,paper_rejected_n,paper_unseen_ev,paper_unseen_n,replica_pnl 2026-07-24,3797,33,-250,14,1915,40,-16.58,0,0,2133,73,127,3797,593,548,23,299,37,0,0,2951,67,109.05 +2026-07-27,4030,43,-248,22,1839,56,-27.24,-300,3,2739,101,182,4030,615,1054,41,237,48,-300,3,3039,90,200.53 +2026-07-28,4443,43,-248,22,1908,68,-27.31,-241,4,3024,111,205,4443,617,996,46,543,60,-300,3,3204,96,170.53 diff --git a/live/conviction_wallets.json b/live/conviction_wallets.json index 141c711d..c6218bae 100644 --- a/live/conviction_wallets.json +++ b/live/conviction_wallets.json @@ -33,13 +33,13 @@ "train_win": 100.0, "train_conv_roi": 1.249, "train_z": 9.66, - "z_all": 20.92, + "z_all": 20.89, "med_stake": 9800, "avg_entry": 0.46, "train_n": 79, - "fwd_win": 96.4, - "fwd_conv_roi": 1.018, - "fwd_n": 28 + "fwd_win": 96.9, + "fwd_conv_roi": 1.063, + "fwd_n": 32 }, { "wallet": "0x72e1597864456eda62878413cf3e60c332e4a45d", @@ -53,7 +53,7 @@ "train_n": 322, "fwd_win": 99.4, "fwd_conv_roi": 1.075, - "fwd_n": 308 + "fwd_n": 320 }, { "wallet": "0xc78cdeb598f0bb8bae62a80e8134e842b3c44455", @@ -93,9 +93,9 @@ "med_stake": 2350, "avg_entry": 0.53, "train_n": 106, - "fwd_win": 99.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 1.161, - "fwd_n": 117 + "fwd_win": 99.2, + "fwd_conv_roi": 1.162, + "fwd_n": 132 }, { "wallet": "0x2ba9075a4393227d4f1bee910725a6706de0b078", @@ -135,9 +135,9 @@ "med_stake": 308, "avg_entry": 0.47, "train_n": 259, - "fwd_win": 75.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.817, - "fwd_n": 70 + "fwd_win": 76.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.883, + "fwd_n": 73 }, { "wallet": "0xfc81760d44a21acc9fd4b749a5bf9a9b2eeae072", @@ -149,9 +149,9 @@ "med_stake": 80, "avg_entry": 0.63, "train_n": 183, - "fwd_win": 92.6, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.778, - "fwd_n": 68 + "fwd_win": 92.8, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.782, + "fwd_n": 69 }, { "wallet": "0xd7664fe4744856866d3ee36b84ec6e77a7025eb1", @@ -223,20 +223,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0x8e9eedf20dfa70956d49f608a205e402d9df38e4", - "name": "0x8e9eedf2", - "train_win": 70.9, - "train_conv_roi": 0.536, - "train_z": 5.14, - "z_all": 13.37, - "med_stake": 3502, - "avg_entry": 0.62, - "train_n": 351, - "fwd_win": 82.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.414, - "fwd_n": 122 - }, { "wallet": "0xc0fd10b1ad1202e9bcfb920c88c4d0af7cc3d036", "name": "0xc0fd10b1", @@ -251,6 +237,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.06, "fwd_n": 12 }, + { + "wallet": "0x8e9eedf20dfa70956d49f608a205e402d9df38e4", + "name": "0x8e9eedf2", + "train_win": 70.8, + "train_conv_roi": 0.533, + "train_z": 5.11, + "z_all": 13.24, + "med_stake": 3495, + "avg_entry": 0.62, + "train_n": 353, + "fwd_win": 82.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.414, + "fwd_n": 122 + }, { "wallet": "0x4a9a12ab62660a22b84cb36d1610f4d09abb8297", "name": "0x4a9a12ab", @@ -282,16 +282,16 @@ { "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", - "train_win": 77.1, + "train_win": 76.8, "train_conv_roi": 0.45, - "train_z": 3.68, + "train_z": 3.55, "z_all": 4.53, "med_stake": 68, - "avg_entry": 0.6, - "train_n": 83, - "fwd_win": 79.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.126, - "fwd_n": 316 + "avg_entry": 0.61, + "train_n": 82, + "fwd_win": 79.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.123, + "fwd_n": 342 }, { "wallet": "0xdf1ea9bb646c07f0c3d5cf08d34d76f891095d9b", @@ -331,9 +331,9 @@ "med_stake": 171, "avg_entry": 0.52, "train_n": 34, - "fwd_win": 62.2, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.187, - "fwd_n": 246 + "fwd_win": 61.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.155, + "fwd_n": 265 }, { "wallet": "0xc0b646c3d97e2e86a1bceaa880ad2f628eb33a92", @@ -359,23 +359,23 @@ "med_stake": 75, "avg_entry": 0.47, "train_n": 411, - "fwd_win": 70.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.143, - "fwd_n": 10 + "fwd_win": 72.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.148, + "fwd_n": 11 }, { "wallet": "0xe542afd3881c4c330ba0ebbb603bb470b2ba0a37", "name": "0xe542afd3", "train_win": 68.4, - "train_conv_roi": 0.379, - "train_z": 7.98, - "z_all": 14.63, + "train_conv_roi": 0.378, + "train_z": 7.97, + "z_all": 14.58, "med_stake": 841, "avg_entry": 0.54, "train_n": 484, - "fwd_win": 51.9, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.26, - "fwd_n": 210 + "fwd_win": 52.6, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.275, + "fwd_n": 215 }, { "wallet": "0x2f53f2d2424d6592bce3d2522b048f6d542ad5ab", @@ -416,8 +416,8 @@ "avg_entry": 0.56, "train_n": 72, "fwd_win": 70.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.179, - "fwd_n": 280 + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.181, + "fwd_n": 283 }, { "wallet": "0x82d2e4dbb0a849ff8e2f5380719769145648beea", @@ -439,7 +439,7 @@ "train_win": 78.9, "train_conv_roi": 0.309, "train_z": 2.36, - "z_all": 4.09, + "z_all": 4.08, "med_stake": 108, "avg_entry": 0.73, "train_n": 152, @@ -471,9 +471,9 @@ "med_stake": 400, "avg_entry": 0.57, "train_n": 288, - "fwd_win": 55.4, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.306, - "fwd_n": 294 + "fwd_win": 54.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.286, + "fwd_n": 300 }, { "wallet": "0xf6099a9eacfef24a4161bd857fbfbcd36cdfe68b", @@ -537,7 +537,7 @@ "train_win": 89.6, "train_conv_roi": 0.271, "train_z": 3.09, - "z_all": 2.22, + "z_all": 2.21, "med_stake": 131, "avg_entry": 0.72, "train_n": 48, @@ -590,16 +590,16 @@ { "wallet": "0x098eddabb2d388f31e79aaf525e49588f22a6fa2", "name": "0x098eddab", - "train_win": 81.2, - "train_conv_roi": 0.23, - "train_z": 3.76, + "train_win": 81.4, + "train_conv_roi": 0.244, + "train_z": 3.88, "z_all": 3.96, - "med_stake": 231, + "med_stake": 217, "avg_entry": 0.68, - "train_n": 112, - "fwd_win": 74.2, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.123, - "fwd_n": 66 + "train_n": 113, + "fwd_win": 73.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.107, + "fwd_n": 67 }, { "wallet": "0x1f2ea878eece1493f887f6ad99fd41cbe68a1730", @@ -625,9 +625,9 @@ "med_stake": 355, "avg_entry": 0.71, "train_n": 166, - "fwd_win": 66.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.318, - "fwd_n": 222 + "fwd_win": 67.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.315, + "fwd_n": 224 }, { "wallet": "0x753e554feb327f9d4f7bff8a6ebdced98fbd2046", @@ -667,9 +667,9 @@ "med_stake": 220, "avg_entry": 0.66, "train_n": 106, - "fwd_win": 72.2, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.114, - "fwd_n": 36 + "fwd_win": 75.9, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.14, + "fwd_n": 54 }, { "wallet": "0xe0b311527157158117b34bb5841dcb45602c4132", @@ -709,23 +709,9 @@ "med_stake": 355, "avg_entry": 0.74, "train_n": 288, - "fwd_win": 87.5, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.125, - "fwd_n": 385 - }, - { - "wallet": "0xa2e5927b38c42d1fdd6c05d70492c3f4208fc8d1", - "name": "0xa2e5927b", - "train_win": 70.5, - "train_conv_roi": 0.193, - "train_z": 1.78, - "z_all": 2.39, - "med_stake": 85, - "avg_entry": 0.58, - "train_n": 44, - "fwd_win": 50.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.101, - "fwd_n": 32 + "fwd_win": 88.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.133, + "fwd_n": 424 }, { "wallet": "0x0c3e55cf50a00a7e74fabd8584c6fdde21603c4c", @@ -737,9 +723,9 @@ "med_stake": 449, "avg_entry": 0.64, "train_n": 234, - "fwd_win": 74.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.049, - "fwd_n": 541 + "fwd_win": 72.8, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.037, + "fwd_n": 578 }, { "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", @@ -793,9 +779,9 @@ "med_stake": 488, "avg_entry": 0.66, "train_n": 139, - "fwd_win": 71.4, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.237, - "fwd_n": 255 + "fwd_win": 70.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.228, + "fwd_n": 263 }, { "wallet": "0x98a5dfa64a24be313adebf9a2c052411f04fd074", @@ -808,8 +794,8 @@ "avg_entry": 0.54, "train_n": 53, "fwd_win": 50.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.34, - "fwd_n": 14 + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.305, + "fwd_n": 16 }, { "wallet": "0x12f93b2a5cd5d370e2e2772246c3c7ceed7774ba", @@ -821,9 +807,9 @@ "med_stake": 1019, "avg_entry": 0.72, "train_n": 336, - "fwd_win": 74.6, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.023, - "fwd_n": 224 + "fwd_win": 74.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.022, + "fwd_n": 225 }, { "wallet": "0xa6a67037b21956e7fbec5bc7e27a076276088651", @@ -845,7 +831,7 @@ "train_win": 77.0, "train_conv_roi": 0.17, "train_z": 3.81, - "z_all": 4.22, + "z_all": 4.2, "med_stake": 938, "avg_entry": 0.67, "train_n": 248, @@ -933,9 +919,23 @@ "med_stake": 4423, "avg_entry": 0.68, "train_n": 87, - "fwd_win": 80.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.015, - "fwd_n": 35 + "fwd_win": 80.6, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.014, + "fwd_n": 36 + }, + { + "wallet": "0xa7c21cf7c6882cd95bcc642eb2bc7a009fd173bf", + "name": "0xa7c21cf7", + "train_win": 72.7, + "train_conv_roi": 0.146, + "train_z": 2.17, + "z_all": 2.04, + "med_stake": 1327, + "avg_entry": 0.62, + "train_n": 77, + "fwd_win": 55.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.061, + "fwd_n": 79 }, { "wallet": "0xc2d9576f67db505cf2e74a9c82b8be2b09f81ef4", @@ -943,7 +943,7 @@ "train_win": 67.4, "train_conv_roi": 0.144, "train_z": 6.77, - "z_all": 2.48, + "z_all": 2.5, "med_stake": 189, "avg_entry": 0.57, "train_n": 730, @@ -961,9 +961,9 @@ "med_stake": 168, "avg_entry": 0.62, "train_n": 337, - "fwd_win": 67.4, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.248, - "fwd_n": 144 + "fwd_win": 66.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.187, + "fwd_n": 163 }, { "wallet": "0xed61f86bb5298d2f27c21c433ce58d80b88a9aa3", @@ -971,7 +971,7 @@ "train_win": 73.1, "train_conv_roi": 0.137, "train_z": 3.04, - "z_all": 10.28, + "z_all": 10.29, "med_stake": 1305, "avg_entry": 0.66, "train_n": 305, @@ -1045,9 +1045,9 @@ "med_stake": 68, "avg_entry": 0.63, "train_n": 342, - "fwd_win": 82.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.1, - "fwd_n": 231 + "fwd_win": 81.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.126, + "fwd_n": 286 }, { "wallet": "0xc52fead8edac49825f5c52aff6e63cd331980981", @@ -1073,9 +1073,9 @@ "med_stake": 690, "avg_entry": 0.62, "train_n": 182, - "fwd_win": 57.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.118, - "fwd_n": 63 + "fwd_win": 57.8, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.12, + "fwd_n": 64 }, { "wallet": "0x40db60f96894e44b9f0ea967021452280a12ca8c", @@ -1101,9 +1101,9 @@ "med_stake": 1410, "avg_entry": 0.58, "train_n": 255, - "fwd_win": 62.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.291, - "fwd_n": 191 + "fwd_win": 62.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.285, + "fwd_n": 192 }, { "wallet": "0x9c5ee2dbc061988546414f0ef376c430c56287da", @@ -1139,7 +1139,7 @@ "train_win": 76.9, "train_conv_roi": 0.113, "train_z": 2.4, - "z_all": 2.91, + "z_all": 2.9, "med_stake": 6650, "avg_entry": 0.7, "train_n": 225, @@ -1157,9 +1157,9 @@ "med_stake": 1690, "avg_entry": 0.69, "train_n": 313, - "fwd_win": 72.6, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.101, - "fwd_n": 175 + "fwd_win": 73.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.104, + "fwd_n": 181 }, { "wallet": "0xab417c0bacc9fe17368d5d662c957f54a1fcc453", @@ -1227,9 +1227,9 @@ "med_stake": 900, "avg_entry": 0.7, "train_n": 318, - "fwd_win": 56.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.052, - "fwd_n": 192 + "fwd_win": 58.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.04, + "fwd_n": 205 }, { "wallet": "0xee01a81b4410e4341db0e15550c7d3b6f9f2bb53", @@ -1241,9 +1241,9 @@ "med_stake": 299, "avg_entry": 0.62, "train_n": 262, - "fwd_win": 56.5, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.07, - "fwd_n": 46 + "fwd_win": 63.6, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.1, + "fwd_n": 77 }, { "wallet": "0x3c1e0ca47fda726d4711e193f63c44e20ce29514", @@ -1315,20 +1315,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.021, "fwd_n": 100 }, - { - "wallet": "0x51f7c3d9fa8cc71818aede2db6e4496968ecae1f", - "name": "0x51f7c3d9", - "train_win": 72.1, - "train_conv_roi": 0.074, - "train_z": 1.78, - "z_all": 3.5, - "med_stake": 200, - "avg_entry": 0.67, - "train_n": 208, - "fwd_win": 66.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.115, - "fwd_n": 168 - }, { "wallet": "0x87909a89ee551c8616e5bff9089c81545bfd010b", "name": "0x87909a89", @@ -1385,20 +1371,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0x809205fb1c91f746b9703ca412c4fdd0435db8a2", - "name": "0x809205fb", - "train_win": 76.0, - "train_conv_roi": 0.045, - "train_z": 1.78, - "z_all": 2.96, - "med_stake": 97, - "avg_entry": 0.72, - "train_n": 263, - "fwd_win": 77.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.082, - "fwd_n": 27 - }, { "wallet": "0xa85ce6075994cf3e069feeb2ccd9667608533463", "name": "0xa85ce607", @@ -1427,20 +1399,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.113, "fwd_n": 62 }, - { - "wallet": "0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124", - "name": "0x0d42cc5f", - "train_win": 68.0, - "train_conv_roi": 0.025, - "train_z": 2.33, - "z_all": 6.7, - "med_stake": 448, - "avg_entry": 0.63, - "train_n": 378, - "fwd_win": 69.9, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.108, - "fwd_n": 123 - }, { "wallet": "0xe1a532a9991cc9ce27174b0296d077f824149dad", "name": "0xe1a532a9", @@ -1455,6 +1413,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0x0d42cc5ff0526fbb8f0bb9eafa9ebba3f23df124", + "name": "0x0d42cc5f", + "train_win": 67.6, + "train_conv_roi": 0.018, + "train_z": 2.18, + "z_all": 5.79, + "med_stake": 438, + "avg_entry": 0.63, + "train_n": 343, + "fwd_win": 71.8, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.13, + "fwd_n": 149 + }, { "wallet": "0x16abe608bee11347334a2da15b96c185ee8e2f10", "name": "0x16abe608", @@ -1475,7 +1447,7 @@ "train_win": 75.6, "train_conv_roi": 0.016, "train_z": 1.88, - "z_all": 2.18, + "z_all": 2.16, "med_stake": 3442, "avg_entry": 0.72, "train_n": 361, @@ -1510,19 +1482,5 @@ "fwd_win": null, "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 - }, - { - "wallet": "0x993c072519306017fe9a6b3ee6fa4a02b3056787", - "name": "0x993c0725", - "train_win": 65.6, - "train_conv_roi": 0.007, - "train_z": 1.78, - "z_all": 2.02, - "med_stake": 6032, - "avg_entry": 0.58, - "train_n": 93, - "fwd_win": 63.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.081, - "fwd_n": 46 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/live/dashboard.html b/live/dashboard.html index 48af83bf..634178b2 100644 --- a/live/dashboard.html +++ b/live/dashboard.html @@ -36,13 +36,13 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de .b{color:var(--green)}.s{color:var(--red)}

Skilled Wallets · Polymarket

-

55 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-27 11:26

+

62 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-28 13:48

-
Validated wallets
55
-
Median z
4.4
-
Median OOS z
2.9
-
Value / longshot
42
-
Favorite-rider
6
+
Validated wallets
62
+
Median z
4.3
+
Median OOS z
3.1
+
Value / longshot
47
+
Favorite-rider
7
@@ -68,7 +68,7 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de

How to read it. z = how far the wallet beat the prices it paid (skill; >3 is strong). OOS z = whether that skill held on held-out bets — the gate that separates real edge from luck. Alpha 0.2–0.4 = share of bets in the underdog value zone where research finds real edge concentrates. Value wallets win by beating longshot/mid prices (the copyable alpha); Favorite-rider wallets post high win rates buying near-certain favorites (real but thin, hard to copy). Click any row for live recent trades. Not financial advice — split-half OOS, forward-track before sizing.