diff --git a/live/conviction_wallets.json b/live/conviction_wallets.json index 2270f95c..cf9748d4 100644 --- a/live/conviction_wallets.json +++ b/live/conviction_wallets.json @@ -131,6 +131,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.495, "fwd_n": 12 }, + { + "wallet": "0xacf8383491688a61a0e4dbba060122ba031be791", + "name": "0xacf83834", + "train_win": 66.7, + "train_conv_roi": 0.704, + "train_z": 2.46, + "avg_entry": 0.41, + "train_n": 21, + "fwd_win": 46.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.011, + "fwd_n": 54 + }, { "wallet": "0x2ba9075a4393227d4f1bee910725a6706de0b078", "name": "0x2ba9075a", @@ -847,9 +859,9 @@ "train_z": 4.21, "avg_entry": 0.59, "train_n": 149, - "fwd_win": 72.2, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.305, - "fwd_n": 54 + "fwd_win": 72.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.302, + "fwd_n": 55 }, { "wallet": "0xa25a4000033140862243b055703e96fb035a39d9", @@ -1007,18 +1019,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0xc9bfb9f0e5aee346b121b36a31f4c1c0af528ec8", - "name": "0xc9bfb9f0", - "train_win": 74.3, - "train_conv_roi": 0.234, - "train_z": 2.69, - "avg_entry": 0.62, - "train_n": 101, - "fwd_win": 57.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.038, - "fwd_n": 128 - }, { "wallet": "0x30d05e6f3adea1a242432516060c098524f2ee0b", "name": "0x30d05e6f", @@ -1067,6 +1067,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0xc9bfb9f0e5aee346b121b36a31f4c1c0af528ec8", + "name": "0xc9bfb9f0", + "train_win": 73.7, + "train_conv_roi": 0.224, + "train_z": 2.55, + "avg_entry": 0.62, + "train_n": 99, + "fwd_win": 59.9, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.089, + "fwd_n": 137 + }, { "wallet": "0x6e44a4ceea65c897ff6b728b88b69cfc1d7821bc", "name": "0x6e44a4ce", @@ -1247,18 +1259,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41", - "name": "0x41558102", - "train_win": 85.0, - "train_conv_roi": 0.191, - "train_z": 4.16, - "avg_entry": 0.75, - "train_n": 253, - "fwd_win": 89.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.135, - "fwd_n": 137 - }, { "wallet": "0x1cff72c8dddc30a64486fda6eab71ab5f9243984", "name": "0x1cff72c8", @@ -1307,18 +1307,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.117, "fwd_n": 77 }, - { - "wallet": "0x6d1a94f4bdd53114ec483925d025367db68697fb", - "name": "0x6d1a94f4", - "train_win": 65.0, - "train_conv_roi": 0.183, - "train_z": 2.96, - "avg_entry": 0.56, - "train_n": 240, - "fwd_win": 70.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.107, - "fwd_n": 253 - }, { "wallet": "0x95c19ee9c99be8ac6e72fc8922250635b5d55c75", "name": "0x95c19ee9", @@ -1430,14 +1418,14 @@ { "wallet": "0xc684828f6b03487759ced2ebdd975f91f3532228", "name": "0xc684828f", - "train_win": 77.9, + "train_win": 78.0, "train_conv_roi": 0.173, - "train_z": 4.09, + "train_z": 4.11, "avg_entry": 0.67, - "train_n": 253, - "fwd_win": 72.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.027, - "fwd_n": 93 + "train_n": 254, + "fwd_win": 72.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.018, + "fwd_n": 91 }, { "wallet": "0xd212624d423e1c351783fe71bb4250850d34feaf", @@ -1499,6 +1487,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.366, "fwd_n": 22 }, + { + "wallet": "0xb8adbd9b70907cd22cf1ab84f5091d7920d10e38", + "name": "0xb8adbd9b", + "train_win": 78.8, + "train_conv_roi": 0.165, + "train_z": 2.64, + "avg_entry": 0.69, + "train_n": 132, + "fwd_win": 83.6, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.031, + "fwd_n": 110 + }, { "wallet": "0x74570d4da5c33aa03f19d3586aeace0bb7a11ec9", "name": "0x74570d4d", @@ -1807,9 +1807,9 @@ "train_z": 2.65, "avg_entry": 0.68, "train_n": 152, - "fwd_win": 70.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.064, - "fwd_n": 167 + "fwd_win": 70.8, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.068, + "fwd_n": 171 }, { "wallet": "0xaf4635074c8f9966ff44f2497183b53fc0578c1d", @@ -1919,6 +1919,42 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0xab417c0bacc9fe17368d5d662c957f54a1fcc453", + "name": "0xab417c0b", + "train_win": 70.6, + "train_conv_roi": 0.116, + "train_z": 3.26, + "avg_entry": 0.63, + "train_n": 364, + "fwd_win": 62.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.105, + "fwd_n": 110 + }, + { + "wallet": "0x23f544a1f92150f25ebafae0e40f5db448b37a6e", + "name": "0x23f544a1", + "train_win": 71.7, + "train_conv_roi": 0.115, + "train_z": 2.76, + "avg_entry": 0.65, + "train_n": 290, + "fwd_win": 80.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.144, + "fwd_n": 110 + }, + { + "wallet": "0xcd9de3b93f09b803b4564f20beb00c9392752269", + "name": "0xcd9de3b9", + "train_win": 68.3, + "train_conv_roi": 0.113, + "train_z": 2.45, + "avg_entry": 0.62, + "train_n": 312, + "fwd_win": 61.9, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.284, + "fwd_n": 21 + }, { "wallet": "0xd0f884f3fecca09f4a0945620b4befa64f3d73a1", "name": "0xd0f884f3", @@ -1991,6 +2027,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0xb0f47416ad54915aea513144d7f3a9429b446fa9", + "name": "0xb0f47416", + "train_win": 69.6, + "train_conv_roi": 0.11, + "train_z": 3.19, + "avg_entry": 0.61, + "train_n": 293, + "fwd_win": 66.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.123, + "fwd_n": 216 + }, { "wallet": "0xbebf0f282a06a4b9de180536ee15211f77c29bae", "name": "0xbebf0f28", @@ -2027,30 +2075,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0x23f544a1f92150f25ebafae0e40f5db448b37a6e", - "name": "0x23f544a1", - "train_win": 71.2, - "train_conv_roi": 0.107, - "train_z": 2.61, - "avg_entry": 0.65, - "train_n": 292, - "fwd_win": 80.6, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.15, - "fwd_n": 108 - }, - { - "wallet": "0xab417c0bacc9fe17368d5d662c957f54a1fcc453", - "name": "0xab417c0b", - "train_win": 70.4, - "train_conv_roi": 0.107, - "train_z": 3.18, - "avg_entry": 0.63, - "train_n": 375, - "fwd_win": 62.2, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.083, - "fwd_n": 98 - }, { "wallet": "0xe89b2ad092a1a78789305423632b6e56c0eb701f", "name": "0xe89b2ad0", @@ -2063,6 +2087,18 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.048, "fwd_n": 121 }, + { + "wallet": "0x86c878cde72660ec52f5e6f0f0438b76de8fc867", + "name": "0x86c878cd", + "train_win": 77.5, + "train_conv_roi": 0.105, + "train_z": 2.93, + "avg_entry": 0.7, + "train_n": 284, + "fwd_win": 73.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.198, + "fwd_n": 98 + }, { "wallet": "0xe00740bce98a594e26861838885ab310ec3b548c", "name": "0xe00740bc", @@ -2099,18 +2135,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0x86c878cde72660ec52f5e6f0f0438b76de8fc867", - "name": "0x86c878cd", - "train_win": 77.4, - "train_conv_roi": 0.101, - "train_z": 2.9, - "avg_entry": 0.7, - "train_n": 287, - "fwd_win": 75.6, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.254, - "fwd_n": 90 - }, { "wallet": "0x46505242a39685d82de798a83da3f4a6fda0f3f0", "name": "0x46505242", @@ -2135,18 +2159,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0xa1a77ea9382bb8c3610f3303b66e093f644aace4", - "name": "0xa1a77ea9", - "train_win": 70.5, - "train_conv_roi": 0.097, - "train_z": 2.75, - "avg_entry": 0.63, - "train_n": 292, - "fwd_win": 69.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.091, - "fwd_n": 205 - }, { "wallet": "0xea9f038c28acdac1bd415f998c0d24e59e58045e", "name": "0xea9f038c", @@ -2220,16 +2232,16 @@ "fwd_n": 0 }, { - "wallet": "0xe9fa488d214b3f73fdc81b7587a06991330af4c6", - "name": "0xe9fa488d", - "train_win": 69.5, + "wallet": "0xf3488e52ac2d7f0628b04481db5a5b0446f0e543", + "name": "0xf3488e52", + "train_win": 78.6, "train_conv_roi": 0.091, - "train_z": 2.57, - "avg_entry": 0.63, - "train_n": 357, - "fwd_win": 77.9, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.196, - "fwd_n": 113 + "train_z": 3.42, + "avg_entry": 0.7, + "train_n": 262, + "fwd_win": 76.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.069, + "fwd_n": 97 }, { "wallet": "0xd0966031867f8a519fee2c300dc3389aad61fa63", @@ -2255,18 +2267,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.012, "fwd_n": 166 }, - { - "wallet": "0xf3488e52ac2d7f0628b04481db5a5b0446f0e543", - "name": "0xf3488e52", - "train_win": 78.4, - "train_conv_roi": 0.087, - "train_z": 3.32, - "avg_entry": 0.7, - "train_n": 259, - "fwd_win": 74.4, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.061, - "fwd_n": 90 - }, { "wallet": "0x9f2c955bdf958f6eecb5b5b04583a2203608d0df", "name": "0x9f2c955b", @@ -2327,18 +2327,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0xe1d415e4018407e8ca414a07188bc94c6063a31e", - "name": "0xe1d415e4", - "train_win": 72.2, - "train_conv_roi": 0.078, - "train_z": 3.15, - "avg_entry": 0.67, - "train_n": 432, - "fwd_win": 68.5, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.005, - "fwd_n": 181 - }, { "wallet": "0x29ab15c6b6b16604e1cbd9a2f9580cf403336c4d", "name": "0x29ab15c6", diff --git a/live/dashboard.html b/live/dashboard.html index fa4eeb9c..501df91b 100644 --- a/live/dashboard.html +++ b/live/dashboard.html @@ -36,12 +36,12 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de .b{color:var(--green)}.s{color:var(--red)}

Skilled Wallets · Polymarket

-

54 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-06-24 10:30

+

52 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-06-25 10:12

-
Validated wallets
54
-
Median z
4.4
+
Validated wallets
52
+
Median z
4.5
Median OOS z
3.4
-
Value / longshot
33
+
Value / longshot
31
Favorite-rider
10
@@ -68,7 +68,7 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de

How to read it. z = how far the wallet beat the prices it paid (skill; >3 is strong). OOS z = whether that skill held on held-out bets — the gate that separates real edge from luck. Alpha 0.2–0.4 = share of bets in the underdog value zone where research finds real edge concentrates. Value wallets win by beating longshot/mid prices (the copyable alpha); Favorite-rider wallets post high win rates buying near-certain favorites (real but thin, hard to copy). Click any row for live recent trades. Not financial advice — split-half OOS, forward-track before sizing.