diff --git a/live/conviction_wallets.json b/live/conviction_wallets.json index 232b48c7..158efdb3 100644 --- a/live/conviction_wallets.json +++ b/live/conviction_wallets.json @@ -45,15 +45,15 @@ "wallet": "0x72e1597864456eda62878413cf3e60c332e4a45d", "name": "0x72e15978", "train_win": 99.1, - "train_conv_roi": 0.981, - "train_z": 14.52, - "z_all": 20.82, - "med_stake": 584, + "train_conv_roi": 0.971, + "train_z": 18.01, + "z_all": 29.09, + "med_stake": 419, "avg_entry": 0.52, - "train_n": 220, - "fwd_win": 100.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 1.087, - "fwd_n": 65 + "train_n": 339, + "fwd_win": 99.4, + "fwd_conv_roi": 1.08, + "fwd_n": 154 }, { "wallet": "0xc78cdeb598f0bb8bae62a80e8134e842b3c44455", @@ -86,16 +86,16 @@ { "wallet": "0x73afc8160c17830c0c7281a7bf570c871455b880", "name": "0x73afc816", - "train_win": 85.5, - "train_conv_roi": 0.765, - "train_z": 5.77, - "z_all": 13.34, - "med_stake": 3811, - "avg_entry": 0.52, - "train_n": 62, + "train_win": 84.9, + "train_conv_roi": 0.737, + "train_z": 7.17, + "z_all": 20.16, + "med_stake": 2350, + "avg_entry": 0.53, + "train_n": 106, "fwd_win": 100.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 1.287, - "fwd_n": 27 + "fwd_conv_roi": 1.213, + "fwd_n": 83 }, { "wallet": "0x2ba9075a4393227d4f1bee910725a6706de0b078", @@ -156,13 +156,13 @@ { "wallet": "0x04be12cdb4f3f0e43bb78c6145f442ed53411aec", "name": "0x04be12cd", - "train_win": 68.7, - "train_conv_roi": 0.593, - "train_z": 9.7, - "z_all": 9.46, + "train_win": 68.6, + "train_conv_roi": 0.591, + "train_z": 9.68, + "z_all": 9.45, "med_stake": 487, "avg_entry": 0.42, - "train_n": 313, + "train_n": 312, "fwd_win": null, "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 @@ -181,20 +181,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0x9def39cb6f7f37a9bdd91c444e4c200778576eac", - "name": "0x9def39cb", - "train_win": 83.9, - "train_conv_roi": 0.578, - "train_z": 5.58, - "z_all": 8.36, - "med_stake": 941, - "avg_entry": 0.57, - "train_n": 87, - "fwd_win": 38.2, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.147, - "fwd_n": 76 - }, { "wallet": "0x49818089c6e2755e0e300a48a8dc4747cf9cd2b4", "name": "0x49818089", @@ -209,6 +195,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0x9def39cb6f7f37a9bdd91c444e4c200778576eac", + "name": "0x9def39cb", + "train_win": 83.5, + "train_conv_roi": 0.558, + "train_z": 5.38, + "z_all": 7.81, + "med_stake": 920, + "avg_entry": 0.57, + "train_n": 85, + "fwd_win": 38.2, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.147, + "fwd_n": 76 + }, { "wallet": "0x0a548e78f65c6e2fc91514aa812f8062575c7c49", "name": "0x0a548e78", @@ -293,20 +293,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 1 }, - { - "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", - "name": "0xbadaf319", - "train_win": 74.7, - "train_conv_roi": 0.42, - "train_z": 3.2, - "z_all": 4.19, - "med_stake": 67, - "avg_entry": 0.6, - "train_n": 79, - "fwd_win": 76.4, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.137, - "fwd_n": 157 - }, { "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf", "name": "0x921433c9", @@ -321,13 +307,27 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.092, "fwd_n": 170 }, + { + "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", + "name": "0xbadaf319", + "train_win": 74.7, + "train_conv_roi": 0.414, + "train_z": 3.16, + "z_all": 4.22, + "med_stake": 68, + "avg_entry": 0.6, + "train_n": 79, + "fwd_win": 76.0, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.124, + "fwd_n": 154 + }, { "wallet": "0xe542afd3881c4c330ba0ebbb603bb470b2ba0a37", "name": "0xe542afd3", "train_win": 68.2, "train_conv_roi": 0.376, "train_z": 7.94, - "z_all": 14.35, + "z_all": 14.42, "med_stake": 841, "avg_entry": 0.53, "train_n": 484, @@ -341,7 +341,7 @@ "train_win": 76.4, "train_conv_roi": 0.355, "train_z": 2.43, - "z_all": 4.66, + "z_all": 4.6, "med_stake": 3060, "avg_entry": 0.62, "train_n": 55, @@ -359,23 +359,9 @@ "med_stake": 138, "avg_entry": 0.56, "train_n": 72, - "fwd_win": 71.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.261, - "fwd_n": 173 - }, - { - "wallet": "0x69b9bd4fa27813091fcfe726541f2fd7baa3a5d5", - "name": "0x69b9bd4f", - "train_win": 70.9, - "train_conv_roi": 0.333, - "train_z": 4.15, - "z_all": 3.22, - "med_stake": 213, - "avg_entry": 0.55, - "train_n": 148, - "fwd_win": 61.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.102, - "fwd_n": 72 + "fwd_win": 72.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.257, + "fwd_n": 179 }, { "wallet": "0xc0b646c3d97e2e86a1bceaa880ad2f628eb33a92", @@ -397,7 +383,7 @@ "train_win": 79.5, "train_conv_roi": 0.318, "train_z": 2.57, - "z_all": 4.14, + "z_all": 4.07, "med_stake": 108, "avg_entry": 0.73, "train_n": 151, @@ -408,24 +394,38 @@ { "wallet": "0x8c44dcfe1178aa04dfa44e000f5b89a054027baf", "name": "0x8c44dcfe", - "train_win": 80.0, - "train_conv_roi": 0.308, - "train_z": 4.8, - "z_all": 6.94, + "train_win": 79.9, + "train_conv_roi": 0.312, + "train_z": 4.88, + "z_all": 6.83, "med_stake": 115, "avg_entry": 0.63, - "train_n": 175, + "train_n": 174, "fwd_win": null, "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0x69b9bd4fa27813091fcfe726541f2fd7baa3a5d5", + "name": "0x69b9bd4f", + "train_win": 69.9, + "train_conv_roi": 0.308, + "train_z": 3.93, + "z_all": 3.53, + "med_stake": 212, + "avg_entry": 0.55, + "train_n": 153, + "fwd_win": 61.6, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.119, + "fwd_n": 73 + }, { "wallet": "0x88ad3166c6cce6a1bf732050749089273252a1f3", "name": "0x88ad3166", - "train_win": 69.8, - "train_conv_roi": 0.3, - "train_z": 5.52, - "z_all": 6.24, + "train_win": 70.3, + "train_conv_roi": 0.306, + "train_z": 5.67, + "z_all": 6.29, "med_stake": 58, "avg_entry": 0.58, "train_n": 431, @@ -433,6 +433,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0xed61f86bb5298d2f27c21c433ce58d80b88a9aa3", + "name": "0xed61f86b", + "train_win": 89.5, + "train_conv_roi": 0.299, + "train_z": 2.51, + "z_all": 5.23, + "med_stake": 489, + "avg_entry": 0.73, + "train_n": 38, + "fwd_win": null, + "fwd_conv_roi": null, + "fwd_n": 0 + }, { "wallet": "0x0bd753cbeb82b4dc735fdd84955f99fbaf258553", "name": "0x0bd753cb", @@ -450,30 +464,30 @@ { "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "name": "0x215adbb6", - "train_win": 72.5, - "train_conv_roi": 0.291, - "train_z": 5.86, - "z_all": 5.14, - "med_stake": 394, + "train_win": 72.7, + "train_conv_roi": 0.296, + "train_z": 5.89, + "z_all": 5.21, + "med_stake": 395, "avg_entry": 0.58, - "train_n": 302, - "fwd_win": 66.3, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.475, - "fwd_n": 92 + "train_n": 300, + "fwd_win": 67.9, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.408, + "fwd_n": 78 }, { "wallet": "0x098eddabb2d388f31e79aaf525e49588f22a6fa2", "name": "0x098eddab", - "train_win": 82.6, - "train_conv_roi": 0.288, - "train_z": 4.17, - "z_all": 3.84, + "train_win": 82.5, + "train_conv_roi": 0.287, + "train_z": 4.12, + "z_all": 3.75, "med_stake": 221, "avg_entry": 0.68, - "train_n": 115, - "fwd_win": 78.1, + "train_n": 114, + "fwd_win": 78.8, "fwd_conv_roi": 0.088, - "fwd_n": 32 + "fwd_n": 33 }, { "wallet": "0x460d15ce9258fb8ce6a94d984574598d2f1c9d5f", @@ -507,8 +521,8 @@ "wallet": "0xfa0be712f974eb9933427c2202d1ae2561571001", "name": "0xfa0be712", "train_win": 71.8, - "train_conv_roi": 0.249, - "train_z": 4.83, + "train_conv_roi": 0.25, + "train_z": 4.84, "z_all": 9.56, "med_stake": 347, "avg_entry": 0.58, @@ -633,8 +647,8 @@ "wallet": "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41", "name": "0x41558102", "train_win": 85.9, - "train_conv_roi": 0.198, - "train_z": 5.0, + "train_conv_roi": 0.2, + "train_z": 5.04, "z_all": 12.36, "med_stake": 335, "avg_entry": 0.75, @@ -644,18 +658,18 @@ "fwd_n": 227 }, { - "wallet": "0xa2e5927b38c42d1fdd6c05d70492c3f4208fc8d1", - "name": "0xa2e5927b", - "train_win": 70.5, - "train_conv_roi": 0.193, - "train_z": 1.78, - "z_all": 2.33, - "med_stake": 85, - "avg_entry": 0.58, - "train_n": 44, - "fwd_win": 53.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.017, - "fwd_n": 26 + "wallet": "0xf6099a9eacfef24a4161bd857fbfbcd36cdfe68b", + "name": "0xf6099a9e", + "train_win": 75.0, + "train_conv_roi": 0.191, + "train_z": 2.61, + "z_all": 3.11, + "med_stake": 55, + "avg_entry": 0.63, + "train_n": 84, + "fwd_win": 72.1, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.085, + "fwd_n": 122 }, { "wallet": "0x3eff118d4bc1742903d9516edf2e3c991600ae12", @@ -671,20 +685,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, - { - "wallet": "0x1d08daded30fe59093fc4689cf8486ae990c6e9b", - "name": "0x1d08dade", - "train_win": 65.8, - "train_conv_roi": 0.184, - "train_z": 1.91, - "z_all": 2.02, - "med_stake": 50, - "avg_entry": 0.55, - "train_n": 73, - "fwd_win": 61.7, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.114, - "fwd_n": 47 - }, { "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "name": "0xa1d57d32", @@ -699,6 +699,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.187, "fwd_n": 136 }, + { + "wallet": "0x1d08daded30fe59093fc4689cf8486ae990c6e9b", + "name": "0x1d08dade", + "train_win": 65.3, + "train_conv_roi": 0.178, + "train_z": 1.83, + "z_all": 2.04, + "med_stake": 50, + "avg_entry": 0.55, + "train_n": 72, + "fwd_win": 61.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.114, + "fwd_n": 47 + }, { "wallet": "0x98a5dfa64a24be313adebf9a2c052411f04fd074", "name": "0x98a5dfa6", @@ -713,6 +727,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.518, "fwd_n": 7 }, + { + "wallet": "0xc684828f6b03487759ced2ebdd975f91f3532228", + "name": "0xc684828f", + "train_win": 77.2, + "train_conv_roi": 0.173, + "train_z": 3.83, + "z_all": 4.04, + "med_stake": 921, + "avg_entry": 0.67, + "train_n": 246, + "fwd_win": 67.8, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.066, + "fwd_n": 59 + }, { "wallet": "0xa6a67037b21956e7fbec5bc7e27a076276088651", "name": "0xa6a67037", @@ -783,33 +811,19 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.01, "fwd_n": 184 }, - { - "wallet": "0xc684828f6b03487759ced2ebdd975f91f3532228", - "name": "0xc684828f", - "train_win": 75.8, - "train_conv_roi": 0.145, - "train_z": 3.1, - "z_all": 3.34, - "med_stake": 959, - "avg_entry": 0.67, - "train_n": 219, - "fwd_win": 55.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.235, - "fwd_n": 20 - }, { "wallet": "0x13464aabec792c36b062316f474713e681330448", "name": "0x13464aab", - "train_win": 69.5, - "train_conv_roi": 0.135, - "train_z": 3.27, - "z_all": 7.34, + "train_win": 69.8, + "train_conv_roi": 0.143, + "train_z": 3.69, + "z_all": 8.22, "med_stake": 165, "avg_entry": 0.62, - "train_n": 318, - "fwd_win": 75.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.236, - "fwd_n": 52 + "train_n": 354, + "fwd_win": 70.3, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.208, + "fwd_n": 91 }, { "wallet": "0x3ab5ad27c676c4be1218397912eab5396e6de56f", @@ -853,20 +867,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.025, "fwd_n": 123 }, - { - "wallet": "0x40db60f96894e44b9f0ea967021452280a12ca8c", - "name": "0x40db60f9", - "train_win": 78.7, - "train_conv_roi": 0.122, - "train_z": 2.27, - "z_all": 2.05, - "med_stake": 338, - "avg_entry": 0.71, - "train_n": 150, - "fwd_win": 80.5, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.029, - "fwd_n": 113 - }, { "wallet": "0xb8f6c79e452d7247d0cf47d16eaf7911953c4f7f", "name": "0xb8f6c79e", @@ -909,6 +909,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0x40db60f96894e44b9f0ea967021452280a12ca8c", + "name": "0x40db60f9", + "train_win": 78.7, + "train_conv_roi": 0.116, + "train_z": 2.19, + "z_all": 2.24, + "med_stake": 325, + "avg_entry": 0.71, + "train_n": 155, + "fwd_win": 78.2, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.023, + "fwd_n": 202 + }, { "wallet": "0x23f544a1f92150f25ebafae0e40f5db448b37a6e", "name": "0x23f544a1", @@ -937,20 +951,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.142, "fwd_n": 121 }, - { - "wallet": "0xe0a2f29b1fadb2259111bbeca392d3805ec4a349", - "name": "0xe0a2f29b", - "train_win": 68.2, - "train_conv_roi": 0.108, - "train_z": 2.3, - "z_all": 3.39, - "med_stake": 618, - "avg_entry": 0.61, - "train_n": 173, - "fwd_win": 75.0, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.077, - "fwd_n": 4 - }, { "wallet": "0x8fe9f78102c6f550b6bb88ba695e45917df2c6dc", "name": "0x8fe9f781", @@ -965,6 +965,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -1.0, "fwd_n": 5 }, + { + "wallet": "0xab417c0bacc9fe17368d5d662c957f54a1fcc453", + "name": "0xab417c0b", + "train_win": 70.3, + "train_conv_roi": 0.106, + "train_z": 3.34, + "z_all": 2.35, + "med_stake": 221, + "avg_entry": 0.63, + "train_n": 391, + "fwd_win": 64.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.13, + "fwd_n": 214 + }, { "wallet": "0x46505242a39685d82de798a83da3f4a6fda0f3f0", "name": "0x46505242", @@ -996,13 +1010,13 @@ { "wallet": "0x87909a89ee551c8616e5bff9089c81545bfd010b", "name": "0x87909a89", - "train_win": 69.1, - "train_conv_roi": 0.099, + "train_win": 69.0, + "train_conv_roi": 0.1, "train_z": 2.31, - "z_all": 4.42, - "med_stake": 5479, - "avg_entry": 0.63, - "train_n": 217, + "z_all": 4.3, + "med_stake": 5600, + "avg_entry": 0.62, + "train_n": 216, "fwd_win": null, "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 2 @@ -1022,18 +1036,18 @@ "fwd_n": 296 }, { - "wallet": "0xab417c0bacc9fe17368d5d662c957f54a1fcc453", - "name": "0xab417c0b", - "train_win": 70.4, - "train_conv_roi": 0.085, - "train_z": 2.93, - "z_all": 2.22, - "med_stake": 222, - "avg_entry": 0.63, - "train_n": 335, - "fwd_win": 65.5, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.147, - "fwd_n": 58 + "wallet": "0xe0a2f29b1fadb2259111bbeca392d3805ec4a349", + "name": "0xe0a2f29b", + "train_win": 66.7, + "train_conv_roi": 0.089, + "train_z": 2.09, + "z_all": 3.4, + "med_stake": 622, + "avg_entry": 0.6, + "train_n": 180, + "fwd_win": 60.4, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.08, + "fwd_n": 48 }, { "wallet": "0xd67ba35aef659c872377a5ac2becb7ada7f85780", @@ -1049,16 +1063,30 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.115, "fwd_n": 52 }, + { + "wallet": "0x60a92c8620846d81f5ea17b0564e0d4b7c545a71", + "name": "0x60a92c86", + "train_win": 76.0, + "train_conv_roi": 0.082, + "train_z": 1.82, + "z_all": 2.19, + "med_stake": 5249, + "avg_entry": 0.7, + "train_n": 129, + "fwd_win": 69.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.055, + "fwd_n": 59 + }, { "wallet": "0x3746dc1ec0dc01352dc141b310e5da81fd7ea99f", "name": "0x3746dc1e", - "train_win": 68.0, + "train_win": 67.9, "train_conv_roi": 0.08, - "train_z": 3.24, - "z_all": 2.51, + "train_z": 3.28, + "z_all": 2.41, "med_stake": 50, "avg_entry": 0.6, - "train_n": 356, + "train_n": 355, "fwd_win": null, "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 @@ -1080,13 +1108,13 @@ { "wallet": "0x3a847382ad6fff9be1db4e073fd9b869f6884d44", "name": "0x3a847382", - "train_win": 68.2, - "train_conv_roi": 0.062, + "train_win": 68.1, + "train_conv_roi": 0.063, "train_z": 3.76, - "z_all": 2.42, - "med_stake": 704, + "z_all": 2.38, + "med_stake": 698, "avg_entry": 0.59, - "train_n": 358, + "train_n": 360, "fwd_win": null, "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 @@ -1111,7 +1139,7 @@ "train_win": 66.1, "train_conv_roi": 0.058, "train_z": 2.87, - "z_all": 4.0, + "z_all": 4.01, "med_stake": 1057, "avg_entry": 0.59, "train_n": 345, @@ -1160,33 +1188,5 @@ "fwd_win": 73.7, "fwd_conv_roi": 0.14, "fwd_n": 57 - }, - { - "wallet": "0x993c072519306017fe9a6b3ee6fa4a02b3056787", - "name": "0x993c0725", - "train_win": 65.6, - "train_conv_roi": 0.007, - "train_z": 1.78, - "z_all": 2.09, - "med_stake": 6032, - "avg_entry": 0.58, - "train_n": 93, - "fwd_win": 61.5, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.062, - "fwd_n": 39 - }, - { - "wallet": "0x83e8723ff456f79445192be823761a4d67517b89", - "name": "0x83e8723f", - "train_win": 67.7, - "train_conv_roi": 0.003, - "train_z": 1.83, - "z_all": 2.08, - "med_stake": 511, - "avg_entry": 0.63, - "train_n": 269, - "fwd_win": 68.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.866, - "fwd_n": 16 } ] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/live/dashboard.html b/live/dashboard.html index 5c5f0ee5..2aad5d85 100644 --- a/live/dashboard.html +++ b/live/dashboard.html @@ -36,12 +36,12 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de .b{color:var(--green)}.s{color:var(--red)}
23 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-04 10:47
+22 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-04 19:29
How to read it. z = how far the wallet beat the prices it paid (skill; >3 is strong). OOS z = whether that skill held on held-out bets — the gate that separates real edge from luck. Alpha 0.2–0.4 = share of bets in the underdog value zone where research finds real edge concentrates. Value wallets win by beating longshot/mid prices (the copyable alpha); Favorite-rider wallets post high win rates buying near-certain favorites (real but thin, hard to copy). Click any row for live recent trades. Not financial advice — split-half OOS, forward-track before sizing.