diff --git a/copybot_ignored_exits.live.jsonl b/copybot_ignored_exits.live.jsonl
index a01c3c49..08872d98 100644
--- a/copybot_ignored_exits.live.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_ignored_exits.live.jsonl
@@ -659,3 +659,5 @@
 {"ts": 1785112508.4, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.88, "shares_held": 3.4789, "cost_held": 2.47, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "live"}
 {"ts": 1785112838.1, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.88, "shares_held": 3.4789, "cost_held": 2.47, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "live"}
 {"ts": 1785113162.3, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.88, "shares_held": 3.4789, "cost_held": 2.47, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785113502.7, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.88, "shares_held": 3.4789, "cost_held": 2.47, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785113830.8, "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080", "their_size": 0, "their_prev": 0, "frac": 1.0, "reason": "band", "sell_px": 0.88, "shares_held": 3.4789, "cost_held": 2.47, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?", "outcome": "Yes", "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "mode": "live"}
diff --git a/copybot_missed_archive.live.jsonl b/copybot_missed_archive.live.jsonl
index fa8bfa98..8cd3b45a 100644
--- a/copybot_missed_archive.live.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_missed_archive.live.jsonl
@@ -62,3 +62,4 @@
 {"ts": 1783856323, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "token": "71941893293834599184621753590882651435325558220761902727823613984547213968365", "cond": "0xae59ba73bbfb0e2630cc950c513afa1e536f11a8d52b467282926f91dec3397c", "title": "Dota 2: MOUZ vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner", "outcome": "Vici Gaming", "price": 0.96, "stake": 1.0, "reason": "price 0.960 outside [0.01,0.95]", "status": "sold", "pnl": 0.1, "settled": 1783857000, "name": "gkmgkldfmg", "exit_price": 1.0545}
 {"ts": 1783856423, "wallet": "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41", "token": "113717050736693090954094949076546722767581299124112759312610889973919287772155", "cond": "0xba7e1244bc3dabb6c38a128dcf7522104172e8b3a354aa711643c11064e56bf1", "title": "Will Daejeon Hana Citizen FC win on 2026-07-12?", "outcome": "Yes", "price": 0.51, "stake": 1.0, "reason": "in-play hold expired unfilled (60s)", "status": "lost", "pnl": -1.01, "settled": 1783867047, "name": "0x41558102", "exit_checked": true}
 {"ts": 1783859594, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "token": "307529025202586833979526819648497003008876078326197368134840608701258822521", "cond": "0x3ba96d2cbdca197aae7d82950167e2e6dd34c4df77afd7db06850b1e5b8003c8", "title": "Dota 2: 1win vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner", "outcome": "1win", "price": 0.08, "stake": 1.0, "reason": "in-play hold expired unfilled (16s)", "status": "sold", "pnl": -0.23, "settled": 1783859847, "name": "gkmgkldfmg", "exit_price": 0.066}
+{"ts": 1783863296, "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", "token": "84502716136213781728963328899707683260350624645362486645725504535263198032073", "cond": "0xa4807375ad750023e039c1a666413760e915ab367d2bfc57034bc5d631775d07", "title": "Dota 2: 1win vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner", "outcome": "1win", "price": 0.47, "stake": 1.04, "reason": "price moved 0.38\u21920.47", "status": "sold", "pnl": 0.06, "settled": 1783863612, "name": "gkmgkldfmg", "exit_price": 0.5135}
diff --git a/copybot_rejects.live.jsonl b/copybot_rejects.live.jsonl
index d323cff9..4bbb8fa9 100644
--- a/copybot_rejects.live.jsonl
+++ b/copybot_rejects.live.jsonl
@@ -219,3 +219,4 @@
 {"ts": 1785113107.8, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "88985397607950225034188222802784705136629843604770691685939886971031444147076", "cond": "0xced86781aa6d2ba184d24ee4e8078f19edf348f627f0028f4a01aa62a5a7cf53", "usd": 10.63, "price": 0.3099999851269984, "reason": "$11 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $146 Week of July 27 2026?", "mode": "live"}
 {"ts": 1785113131.5, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "40663790484016776548049953791795143359831015042228466671395986149633219286611", "cond": "0xb271881e3bbc6eccd169a795f7191560c56736455e78d63a26580f01e625c6f1", "usd": 2.37, "price": 0.3, "reason": "$2 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $138 Week of July 27 2026?", "mode": "live"}
 {"ts": 1785113131.5, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "112774766992396377485489579919863607374726156472090313068282277768607356552228", "cond": "0x1b158a9177d2b8cb17144844069b93753c2578ace89a07d06fe1872c86ff8e90", "usd": 4.81, "price": 0.63, "reason": "$5 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $140 Week of July 27 2026?", "mode": "live"}
+{"ts": 1785113977.9, "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "token": "76166172789147720877881287551767793096111643375081582954921424701510498538309", "cond": "0x9962e726dfb4d0e063c3111fe9c2e1f4ad4740721c03b4c5e8bea046d33ecf34", "usd": 0.91, "price": 0.3, "reason": "$1 < conviction floor $28", "title": "Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026?", "mode": "live"}
diff --git a/copybot_state.live.json b/copybot_state.live.json
index 3f49f730..9b939273 100644
--- a/copybot_state.live.json
+++ b/copybot_state.live.json
@@ -1,7 +1,6 @@
 {
   "started_at": 1783572616.4091802,
   "seen_tx": [
-    "0xce3c144ed8b8300cb2f5bc9d790fb47138a4874135753a6fea8e0b8cacda546a",
     "0xd74f5ce4c5980c5246cc7ce0c4e1dade4239f76933c35339ed22547e9c22e138",
     "0xa8e109e558b627f32f35c5b6c029c916e39ad10873506cb3b3e615d9de850660",
     "0xa771fb35b855e3d50941cf7498026bd2b77a57b693870192f19490e843f47b08",
@@ -5000,7 +4999,8 @@
     "0xc7721e0087de42e2f5e62b77cd5428ee901df437c80434cdf3c8a44139f307c0",
     "0x09b30f02d0d1fddba55748e82c12ba6a4a3628101c43e503ce4ea3b7b1106fee",
     "0x64ba84c2475b268da7fe5110e3877af506cdad19b7a451b6271c9f07a4125e7f",
-    "0xfbdc2ffa52605cfad749ab727dfe1c0c334790ce7ea7c2dd0f0d5a5d96fc67fb"
+    "0xfbdc2ffa52605cfad749ab727dfe1c0c334790ce7ea7c2dd0f0d5a5d96fc67fb",
+    "0xe8f4a1b6f86e31711a1e99b776c7feb06aaa34fac98f85e60afe3bc8ba0c8234"
   ],
   "their_pos": {
     "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41": {
@@ -7575,7 +7575,8 @@
       "24411114427282578875426055969732348605035863582713101684063218947039334428561": 0.0,
       "33707674901387494882510832780063101180447157377494642117139451030535958080645": 0.0,
       "112774766992396377485489579919863607374726156472090313068282277768607356552228": 60.952379,
-      "3901986631446153023403890805451260510191347162609117497694534689649201812603": 0.0
+      "3901986631446153023403890805451260510191347162609117497694534689649201812603": 0.0,
+      "87696708406779453134902801895465089795764350419182531911213489596972812010552": 60.882351
     },
     "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b": {
       "100468734153214358233990589631364606641061328246006529504204481849428608539045": 5322.2848,
@@ -16520,22 +16521,6 @@
       "settled": null,
       "name": "0xbadaf319"
     },
-    {
-      "ts": 1783863296,
-      "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",
-      "token": "84502716136213781728963328899707683260350624645362486645725504535263198032073",
-      "cond": "0xa4807375ad750023e039c1a666413760e915ab367d2bfc57034bc5d631775d07",
-      "title": "Dota 2: 1win vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner",
-      "outcome": "1win",
-      "price": 0.47,
-      "stake": 1.04,
-      "reason": "price moved 0.38\u21920.47",
-      "status": "sold",
-      "pnl": 0.06,
-      "settled": 1783863612,
-      "name": "gkmgkldfmg",
-      "exit_price": 0.5135
-    },
     {
       "ts": 1783866853,
       "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b",
@@ -19688,10 +19673,25 @@
       "pnl": null,
       "settled": null,
       "name": "0xbadaf319"
+    },
+    {
+      "ts": 1785113978,
+      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+      "token": "87696708406779453134902801895465089795764350419182531911213489596972812010552",
+      "cond": "0x726f8c733ea83c15eb7bf25eca3fb324440c78a49fd2e233138214c69cdb46f0",
+      "title": "Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?",
+      "outcome": "No",
+      "price": 0.67,
+      "stake": 1.0,
+      "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xf215688810e41d482a5d17e580dea6a7ece262957",
+      "status": "open",
+      "pnl": null,
+      "settled": null,
+      "name": "0xbadaf319"
     }
   ],
-  "feed_sig": "cbf24dbde215b9dc3d20d6dff352a64c",
-  "feed_pushed_at": 1785113034.3053575,
+  "feed_sig": "9e764e254978b63c6014f457edd29c8e",
+  "feed_pushed_at": 1785113962.3537705,
   "adjustments": [
     {
       "ts": 1783906689,
@@ -19742,14 +19742,14 @@
     "6457952357077230044054791268159160058712529625831041550558183767114352456975": 1,
     "61895825019286928316753689208545457497714235075046708292847356747636406191670": 1,
     "82768531874539579332422216880159980913196623213037059365722754442149714478353": 1,
-    "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080": 655,
+    "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080": 657,
     "24538227191540742319290192357327280598675171199196475574105878696409564463051": 1
   },
   "trade_cursor": {
     "0x41558102a796ba971c7567cad41c307e59f8fa41": 1783900970,
     "0xd96750bf8d941a8186e592b0ae6e096da66aa266": 1783871702,
     "0xe8ca3f758c93f44f3ec210542ab78afb7c0bcccb": 1785077212,
-    "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874": 1785113107,
+    "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874": 1785113131,
     "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b": 1785099999,
     "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf": 1785074847,
     "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343": 1785107101,
@@ -19769,36 +19769,6 @@
     "outcome": "Karmine Corp"
   },
   "ignored_exits": [
-    {
-      "ts": 1785044662.5,
-      "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080",
-      "their_size": 0,
-      "their_prev": 0,
-      "frac": 1.0,
-      "reason": "band",
-      "sell_px": 0.88,
-      "shares_held": 3.4789,
-      "cost_held": 2.47,
-      "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?",
-      "outcome": "Yes",
-      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-      "mode": "live"
-    },
-    {
-      "ts": 1785044988.0,
-      "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080",
-      "their_size": 0,
-      "their_prev": 0,
-      "frac": 1.0,
-      "reason": "band",
-      "sell_px": 0.88,
-      "shares_held": 3.4789,
-      "cost_held": 2.47,
-      "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?",
-      "outcome": "Yes",
-      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
-      "mode": "live"
-    },
     {
       "ts": 1785045313.9,
       "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080",
@@ -22768,6 +22738,36 @@
       "outcome": "Yes",
       "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
       "mode": "live"
+    },
+    {
+      "ts": 1785113502.7,
+      "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080",
+      "their_size": 0,
+      "their_prev": 0,
+      "frac": 1.0,
+      "reason": "band",
+      "sell_px": 0.88,
+      "shares_held": 3.4789,
+      "cost_held": 2.47,
+      "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?",
+      "outcome": "Yes",
+      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+      "mode": "live"
+    },
+    {
+      "ts": 1785113830.8,
+      "token": "30518385375198439635185229487622977022492810585983145828956543777339451661080",
+      "their_size": 0,
+      "their_prev": 0,
+      "frac": 1.0,
+      "reason": "band",
+      "sell_px": 0.88,
+      "shares_held": 3.4789,
+      "cost_held": 2.47,
+      "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by December 31?",
+      "outcome": "Yes",
+      "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+      "mode": "live"
     }
   ],
   "maker_stats": {
diff --git a/live/copybot_live_real.json b/live/copybot_live_real.json
index 6e0a44be..60fed73c 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live_real.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live_real.json
@@ -2120,6 +2120,21 @@
   }
  ],
  "missed": [
+  {
+   "ts": 1785113978,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "87696708406779453134902801895465089795764350419182531911213489596972812010552",
+   "cond": "0x726f8c733ea83c15eb7bf25eca3fb324440c78a49fd2e233138214c69cdb46f0",
+   "title": "Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.67,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xf215688810e41d482a5d17e580dea6a7ece262957",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
   {
    "ts": 1785009018,
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
@@ -3048,24 +3063,9 @@
    "name": "0xbadaf319",
    "exit_checked": true,
    "exit_price": 0.6516
-  },
-  {
-   "ts": 1784802578,
-   "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c",
-   "token": "28239418772633645184924651434956000849078365566842629564562475378531350731731",
-   "cond": "0xac02cbb049e46d6a3627c0fdf52fa554982a9025d45968207b362acb6ca4b830",
-   "title": "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?",
-   "outcome": "No",
-   "price": 0.9142,
-   "stake": 2.51,
-   "reason": "no ask side on the book at copy time",
-   "status": "open",
-   "pnl": null,
-   "settled": null,
-   "name": "BikesAreTheBikes"
   }
  ],
- "missed_pnl": 1727.28,
+ "missed_pnl": 1727.22,
  "last_fill": {
   "ts": 1784999565,
   "side": "SELL",
@@ -3081,7 +3081,7 @@
    "wins": 7,
    "open_cost": 13.33,
    "open_n": 5,
-   "miss_n": 86,
+   "miss_n": 87,
    "miss_pnl": 1732.06,
    "last_ts": 1785104758
   },
@@ -3186,5 +3186,5 @@
    "last_ts": 0
   }
  },
- "updated": 1785113172
+ "updated": 1785113978
 }
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/live/copybot_live_real_full.json b/live/copybot_live_real_full.json
index af435455..0ebd3e18 100644
--- a/live/copybot_live_real_full.json
+++ b/live/copybot_live_real_full.json
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
  "mode": "live",
- "updated": 1785113172,
+ "updated": 1785113978,
  "wallet_pnl": {
   "0xbadaf319": {
    "realized": -1.02,
@@ -8,7 +8,7 @@
    "wins": 7,
    "open_cost": 13.33,
    "open_n": 5,
-   "miss_n": 86,
+   "miss_n": 87,
    "miss_pnl": 1732.06,
    "last_ts": 1785104758
   },
@@ -2826,6 +2826,21 @@
   }
  ],
  "missed": [
+  {
+   "ts": 1785113978,
+   "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",
+   "token": "87696708406779453134902801895465089795764350419182531911213489596972812010552",
+   "cond": "0x726f8c733ea83c15eb7bf25eca3fb324440c78a49fd2e233138214c69cdb46f0",
+   "title": "Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026?",
+   "outcome": "No",
+   "price": 0.67,
+   "stake": 1.0,
+   "reason": "order rejected: exception: order 0xf215688810e41d482a5d17e580dea6a7ece262957",
+   "status": "open",
+   "pnl": null,
+   "settled": null,
+   "name": "0xbadaf319"
+  },
   {
    "ts": 1785009018,
    "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874",