diff --git a/live/conviction_wallets.json b/live/conviction_wallets.json index e62040fa..f2515af8 100644 --- a/live/conviction_wallets.json +++ b/live/conviction_wallets.json @@ -33,7 +33,7 @@ "train_win": 100.0, "train_conv_roi": 1.249, "train_z": 9.66, - "z_all": 20.95, + "z_all": 20.98, "med_stake": 9800, "avg_entry": 0.46, "train_n": 79, @@ -69,6 +69,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 }, + { + "wallet": "0x99292fe5c401a3a2b8df0e65e6e7df0b5ab6919e", + "name": "0x99292fe5", + "train_win": 81.3, + "train_conv_roi": 0.813, + "train_z": 11.32, + "z_all": 5.89, + "med_stake": 444, + "avg_entry": 0.45, + "train_n": 241, + "fwd_win": null, + "fwd_conv_roi": null, + "fwd_n": 0 + }, { "wallet": "0x73afc8160c17830c0c7281a7bf570c871455b880", "name": "0x73afc816", @@ -83,6 +97,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 1.182, "fwd_n": 97 }, + { + "wallet": "0x2ba9075a4393227d4f1bee910725a6706de0b078", + "name": "0x2ba9075a", + "train_win": 79.8, + "train_conv_roi": 0.7, + "train_z": 10.07, + "z_all": 4.59, + "med_stake": 426, + "avg_entry": 0.47, + "train_n": 228, + "fwd_win": null, + "fwd_conv_roi": null, + "fwd_n": 0 + }, { "wallet": "0x47b38c600fc56ad63b17df7112b04ea4c975cb08", "name": "0x47b38c60", @@ -219,9 +247,9 @@ "med_stake": 3495, "avg_entry": 0.62, "train_n": 350, - "fwd_win": 70.8, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.134, - "fwd_n": 65 + "fwd_win": 81.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.071, + "fwd_n": 120 }, { "wallet": "0x4a9a12ab62660a22b84cb36d1610f4d09abb8297", @@ -327,7 +355,7 @@ "train_win": 68.4, "train_conv_roi": 0.38, "train_z": 8.0, - "z_all": 14.5, + "z_all": 14.53, "med_stake": 841, "avg_entry": 0.54, "train_n": 484, @@ -411,7 +439,7 @@ "train_win": 78.9, "train_conv_roi": 0.309, "train_z": 2.36, - "z_all": 4.07, + "z_all": 4.08, "med_stake": 108, "avg_entry": 0.73, "train_n": 152, @@ -548,16 +576,16 @@ { "wallet": "0x098eddabb2d388f31e79aaf525e49588f22a6fa2", "name": "0x098eddab", - "train_win": 81.1, - "train_conv_roi": 0.237, - "train_z": 3.8, - "z_all": 4.08, - "med_stake": 221, - "avg_entry": 0.68, - "train_n": 111, - "fwd_win": 72.5, + "train_win": 81.8, + "train_conv_roi": 0.24, + "train_z": 3.76, + "z_all": 4.01, + "med_stake": 231, + "avg_entry": 0.69, + "train_n": 110, + "fwd_win": 73.1, "fwd_conv_roi": 0.124, - "fwd_n": 51 + "fwd_n": 52 }, { "wallet": "0x1f2ea878eece1493f887f6ad99fd41cbe68a1730", @@ -671,6 +699,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.14, "fwd_n": 323 }, + { + "wallet": "0x93164f2f061f931cd4d549834d657bb342ffc00c", + "name": "0x93164f2f", + "train_win": 65.8, + "train_conv_roi": 0.196, + "train_z": 3.24, + "z_all": 2.64, + "med_stake": 100, + "avg_entry": 0.55, + "train_n": 225, + "fwd_win": null, + "fwd_conv_roi": null, + "fwd_n": 1 + }, { "wallet": "0x0c3e55cf50a00a7e74fabd8584c6fdde21603c4c", "name": "0x0c3e55cf", @@ -699,20 +741,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.019, "fwd_n": 282 }, - { - "wallet": "0x93164f2f061f931cd4d549834d657bb342ffc00c", - "name": "0x93164f2f", - "train_win": 65.8, - "train_conv_roi": 0.189, - "train_z": 3.17, - "z_all": 2.72, - "med_stake": 100, - "avg_entry": 0.56, - "train_n": 225, - "fwd_win": null, - "fwd_conv_roi": null, - "fwd_n": 1 - }, { "wallet": "0x3eff118d4bc1742903d9516edf2e3c991600ae12", "name": "0x3eff118d", @@ -775,7 +803,7 @@ "train_win": 77.0, "train_conv_roi": 0.171, "train_z": 3.82, - "z_all": 4.14, + "z_all": 4.1, "med_stake": 938, "avg_entry": 0.67, "train_n": 248, @@ -814,13 +842,13 @@ { "wallet": "0xfdb826a0fb4a90b4cc9049e408ea3ef1b73ae4c9", "name": "0xfdb826a0", - "train_win": 67.9, - "train_conv_roi": 0.162, - "train_z": 4.91, + "train_win": 68.0, + "train_conv_roi": 0.164, + "train_z": 4.95, "z_all": 4.56, "med_stake": 133, "avg_entry": 0.57, - "train_n": 443, + "train_n": 444, "fwd_win": null, "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 @@ -858,9 +886,9 @@ "name": "0xed61f86b", "train_win": 73.2, "train_conv_roi": 0.149, - "train_z": 3.14, - "z_all": 10.38, - "med_stake": 1315, + "train_z": 3.13, + "z_all": 10.35, + "med_stake": 1317, "avg_entry": 0.66, "train_n": 306, "fwd_win": 85.7, @@ -915,7 +943,7 @@ "train_win": 67.3, "train_conv_roi": 0.143, "train_z": 6.7, - "z_all": 2.38, + "z_all": 2.4, "med_stake": 188, "avg_entry": 0.57, "train_n": 734, @@ -1066,16 +1094,16 @@ { "wallet": "0x8f69269039b9a401de28a38c2f1c3001364b7df1", "name": "0x8f692690", - "train_win": 77.3, - "train_conv_roi": 0.115, - "train_z": 2.48, - "z_all": 2.91, - "med_stake": 6680, + "train_win": 77.0, + "train_conv_roi": 0.113, + "train_z": 2.41, + "z_all": 2.82, + "med_stake": 6664, "avg_entry": 0.71, - "train_n": 225, - "fwd_win": 59.4, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.036, - "fwd_n": 64 + "train_n": 226, + "fwd_win": 59.5, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.027, + "fwd_n": 74 }, { "wallet": "0x86c878cde72660ec52f5e6f0f0438b76de8fc867", @@ -1175,20 +1203,6 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": -0.07, "fwd_n": 46 }, - { - "wallet": "0x60a92c8620846d81f5ea17b0564e0d4b7c545a71", - "name": "0x60a92c86", - "train_win": 77.9, - "train_conv_roi": 0.098, - "train_z": 2.02, - "z_all": 2.0, - "med_stake": 5714, - "avg_entry": 0.71, - "train_n": 122, - "fwd_win": 70.6, - "fwd_conv_roi": 0.023, - "fwd_n": 68 - }, { "wallet": "0x3c1e0ca47fda726d4711e193f63c44e20ce29514", "name": "0x3c1e0ca4", @@ -1283,20 +1297,20 @@ "med_stake": 131, "avg_entry": 0.6, "train_n": 410, - "fwd_win": 61.1, - "fwd_conv_roi": -0.057, - "fwd_n": 72 + "fwd_win": 66.4, + "fwd_conv_roi": 0.009, + "fwd_n": 122 }, { "wallet": "0x3a847382ad6fff9be1db4e073fd9b869f6884d44", "name": "0x3a847382", - "train_win": 67.5, + "train_win": 67.4, "train_conv_roi": 0.051, - "train_z": 3.69, - "z_all": 2.27, + "train_z": 3.68, + "z_all": 2.26, "med_stake": 687, "avg_entry": 0.59, - "train_n": 412, + "train_n": 411, "fwd_win": null, "fwd_conv_roi": null, "fwd_n": 0 @@ -1329,6 +1343,20 @@ "fwd_conv_roi": 0.082, "fwd_n": 27 }, + { + "wallet": "0x011f2d377e56119fb09196dffb0948ae55711122", + "name": "0x011f2d37", + "train_win": 80.0, + "train_conv_roi": 0.045, + "train_z": 2.78, + "z_all": 6.98, + "med_stake": 3561, + "avg_entry": 0.75, + "train_n": 265, + "fwd_win": 58.7, + "fwd_conv_roi": -0.077, + "fwd_n": 104 + }, { "wallet": "0xa85ce6075994cf3e069feeb2ccd9667608533463", "name": "0xa85ce607", diff --git a/live/copybot.paper.json b/live/copybot.paper.json index 30af8f47..02c18de9 100644 --- a/live/copybot.paper.json +++ b/live/copybot.paper.json @@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ "wallet": "0xbadaf319415c17f28824a43ae0cd912b9d84d874", "name": "0xbadaf319", "class": "volume", - "floor": 40.1 + "floor": 37.05 }, { "wallet": "0xd7d36345c4aab150e59577e360696b01d01d698b", @@ -26,19 +26,19 @@ "wallet": "0xa1d57d329227c75b12b09f927fb3d6d6ef8f1343", "name": "1kto1m", "class": "volume", - "floor": 329.09 + "floor": 320.1 }, { "wallet": "0x215adbb63b47d0ca92f849fe2c2dc1adb0f6254c", "name": "BikesAreTheBikes", "class": "volume", - "floor": 224.77 + "floor": 222.85 }, { "wallet": "0x921433c93558b9a4ba807ec824d02aad7ea2ddbf", "name": "AIcAIc", "class": "volume", - "floor": 341.23 + "floor": 344.56 } ], "follow": { diff --git a/live/dashboard.html b/live/dashboard.html index d3cc9e63..be1d39f4 100644 --- a/live/dashboard.html +++ b/live/dashboard.html @@ -36,12 +36,12 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de .b{color:var(--green)}.s{color:var(--red)}

Skilled Wallets · Polymarket

-

68 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-19 12:54

+

67 wallets that beat their own entry prices and held up out-of-sample · generated 2026-07-20 10:54

-
Validated wallets
68
-
Median z
4.3
+
Validated wallets
67
+
Median z
4.2
Median OOS z
3.1
-
Value / longshot
50
+
Value / longshot
49
Favorite-rider
9
@@ -68,7 +68,7 @@ td.name{font-weight:600}a{color:var(--blue);text-decoration:none}a:hover{text-de

How to read it. z = how far the wallet beat the prices it paid (skill; >3 is strong). OOS z = whether that skill held on held-out bets — the gate that separates real edge from luck. Alpha 0.2–0.4 = share of bets in the underdog value zone where research finds real edge concentrates. Value wallets win by beating longshot/mid prices (the copyable alpha); Favorite-rider wallets post high win rates buying near-certain favorites (real but thin, hard to copy). Click any row for live recent trades. Not financial advice — split-half OOS, forward-track before sizing.